Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
It looks like it’s going to be an interesting eight-game NBA DFS slate Saturday night with five games with a total of at least 234 points and only one game with a spread of over 8.5 points. DraftKings continues to react very slowly as far as their pricing for some teams while FanDuel has been a bit more steady. Let’s talk about some stats that will get the ball rolling for Saturday.
1. The Hornets allow the ninth-highest field goal rate in the post-up
They have to face Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets Saturday night, which is not likely to be a fun time for them. Jokic leads the league in points per game in the post-up and he’s shooting 65.5% in that play type. For some context, Joel Embiid is second in points per game and shoots 54.5% in the play type so Jokic shows off his efficiency. He’s also at 1.69 points per game while the Hornets are also 29th in rebounds allowed. That’s just another route for Jokic since he is now eighth in rebound chances per game and leads the league in touches per game. Jokic is likely to be my favorite spend-up option on this slate and with a spread under nine points, that’s not a deal-breaker for me.
2. Kyle Kuzma remains out for the Wizards
That has typically led to strong results for the other stars on the Wizards, as Kristaps Porzingis (a great play on his own) is at 1.36 points per minute but Bradley Beal has my eye once again since he is over $2,000 less expensive on DK and $1,300 less on FD. It certainly won’t be impossible to play Jokic and Porzingis together, but Beal jumps to a 31.6% usage rate and 1.24 points per minute without Kuzma. He’ll benefit from the Pacers playing at a top-six pace in the league and they are also just 26th against scorers. Beal only took 17 shots in the past game on Thursday without Kuzma and scored under 20 real points but still scored over 45.0 DK points because he leaned into being a playmaker more with 10 assists. He’s too cheap for this spot and Thursday, he was under 10% rostered. I would be thrilled if that were the case Saturday.
3. Collin Sexton is the free square again on Saturday at $4,000 on DK
This salary feels like a glitch but we’re going to have to deal with it. Since the Jazz have traded Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Sexton is the main point guard with a bullet next to his name. He’s fast approaching 1.00 points per minute with an 18.4% assist rate and he’s cleared 32 minutes in each of the past two games. If that weren’t enough of a reason to play him, the matchup with the Knicks is very generous as they are 27th against primary ball handlers and 22nd against scorers. I’m hitting the lock button on Sexton and getting different in other spots.
4. Onyeka Okongwu scores 0.98 points per minute without Clint Capela
Capela has not been ruled out, nor do we expect that to be the case. However, these two don’t share the floor and there is likely to be some heavy chalk on the cheap center options once again. Friday night, we saw Mark Williams of the Hornets and Zach Collins of the Spurs be rostered by over 40% of the field across the industry. The salaries on DK rose by a combined $300 and they will be popular again, justifiably so. Okongwu won’t match those players in minutes (he’s averaging right about 20-22 lately) but the matchup against the Spurs is glorious. They are 20th in rebounds allowed and 30th in points allowed in the paint, exactly where Okongwu does all of his damage. It’s not out of pocket to suggest that he could double-double and if he outscores one of the chalk centers, it likely comes at sub-5%.
5. The Warriors and Lakers are first and second in pace
That should be appealing right off the hop and Jordan Poole stands out on the Golden State side in a major way. He’s under $8,000 on each site for unknown reasons and when Steph Curry has been out this year, Poole has taken over with a massive 34.5% usage rate. That leads the team by almost 7% and the Lakers didn’t exactly get much better defensively on the perimeter with the trades they made. Anthony Davis hasn’t looked like himself since coming back from his foot injury and the Lakers are 29th against scorers this season. Poole still has the feel of a massive bargain and won’t be under $8,000 for much longer.
