Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are 11 games in the NBA Friday. All but two of them are under double-digit spreads, and we have another grouping of high totals. The fallout from the trade deadline is still being felt, as there are a bunch of players who won’t be available, but plenty of DFS value options will make lineup building quite enjoyable in my eyes.
1. Mark Williams scores 1.32 points per minute for the Hornets without the players that were traded
The Hornets are in Boston, and it’s not an easy matchup. The Celtics are fifth against rebounders and fifth against skilled centers. However, Williams has been so wildly productive and he’s only $3,200 on DK. Charlotte moved Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels Thursday and Plumlee was the roll man in the pick-and-roll at a 17.8% frequency. Boston is allowing the ninth-most field goal attempts per game and even though he’s going to be very popular, the upside is immense for Williams on this slate. There is a strong chance that he’ll cost over $5,500 within about a week and he should be logging at least 24-26 minutes per night with a real shot at more.
2. Collin Sexton is just $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel
Especially on DK, Sexton is likely to be a “free square” in our lineups as he stepped in on Wednesday night and played over 31 minutes. He didn’t shoot a ton at just 10 attempts but it didn’t help that the Jazz got blown out. He like would have threatened 35 minutes in part because Nickeil Alexander-Walker was traded as well. He created 16 potential assists in that game, although he only had five so the ceiling there is much higher than it appeared to be and he’s scoring 0.94 points per minute. The salary on either site is just too low, and then we can factor in the Raptors are only 16th against scorers and 19th against primary ball handlers.
3. The Timberwolves are 26th against scorers
The FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows the Wolves have a distinct weakness in that aspect of the game and Desmond Bane of the Grizzlies is primed to take advantage of that. He has a 26.5% usage rate and 1.19 points per minute on the year while also shooting 43.5% from a 3-point distance. The Wolves are sixth in field goal rate allowed and Bane is also scoring 2.0 points per game off screens. That seems like nothing but he’s also shooting just 37.5% in that play type, very atypical for a shooter like Bane. The Wolves are tied for the sixth-highest field goal rate allowed when defending shots off screens, and this game features two teams in the top five in pace.
4. The Thunder allow the 10th-highest 3-point frequency
They are in Portland to face the Blazers, and that means a whole lot of Damian Lillard, who is my favorite spend-up option on the slate. Oklahoma is playing at the third-fastest pace in the league and they are only 20th against primary ball handlers. Throughout a 249-minute sample size this year without Jusuf Nurkic and Josh Hart on the floor, Lillard is at a 40.9% usage rate and 1.67 points per minute, which is equal to players like Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. Lastly, the Thunder are tied for the ninth-highest points per possession when defending isolation and Lillard is scoring the fifth-most points per game in that play type.
5. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard against the Bucks
The superstar is out to manage his injury, and in conjunction with the trades Los Angeles made Thursday, that will leave them limited on scoring options. Even in the last game on Wednesday with everyone active, Powell logged 28 minutes and took 17 shots. He has also scored at least 24 points in four of the past five games while he’s carrying a 26.6% usage rate and 0.96 points per minute. He’s only taking 4.8 3-point attempts per game but when he does, Powell is shooting 42.0% from beyond the arc and his salary is too low for this situation in the late-hammer.
