NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual DFS matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around for Wednesday.
1. 60.7
The Sixers must play Wednesdays a lot because I feel like I highlight this split every time I do 5 Stats. Joel Embiid averages 60.7 DK points per game at home, vs 53.6 on the road. His activity level seems to be the reason for this split, as his offensive rebounds, blocks, steals, and free throw attempts all skyrocket in front of the Philly crowd.
His defensive upside has been enormous lately and the matchup is ideal, as Orlando is 22nd against rim protectors and 28th against skilled centers.
2. 14.9
The Houston Rockets are dead last in the league in both opponent blocks and opponent steals per game. They allow 14.9 blocks + steals per game, an astonishingly high number. Every single Thunder player has more upside than usual tonight because of defensive upside and because many of these blocks/steals lead to other production, like rebounds and transition offense.
3. 55.97
Kyrie Irving is averaging nearly 56 DK points per game without Kevin Durant. What’s most intriguing about this spot to me is the fact that the Boston defense will likely scare people away, but they’re 16th against scorers and 23rd against the combination of primary ball-handlers who are also scorers. This latter point shouldn’t be too surprising, since Boston allows the third most points per game to pick and roll ball-handlers.
4. 11.8
The Spurs and Kings are implied to score 11.8 more points than their combined averages. Pieces from both sides of this game will surely be popular, but De’Aaron Fox’s price stands out to me the most. The Spurs are 29th against primary ball-handlers and Fox has always thrived in these up-tempo environments.
5. 1.42
Alperen Sengun has played 154 minutes this season without Jalen Green and Kevin Porter on the floor. In those minutes, he averages 1.42 DK points compared to 1.24 in all of his minutes with at least one of them on the floor. The Thunder are 21st against skilled centers and 24th against rebounders, so Sengun has massive upside, especially within a game stack.
