Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tonight brings us eight NBA games, and the late-night hammer is fascinating since the Pacers are facing the Warriors with a 241.5 total.
The catch is the spread is 10 points in part because Indy will be without star guard Tyrese Haliburton, so let’s explore how to attack it and the other seven games.
1. The Celtics played the Nets last night
That’s a boring stat by itself, but it could have very large implications tonight. Boston is taking on the Raptors this evening, Marcus Smart was out last night, Al Horford has not played on consecutive nights this year and they ran a small rotation last night. They only played eight players for 16 minutes or more, one being Horford. Malcolm Brogdon played 32 minutes, almost eight more than his normal run. That’s nearly 40 minutes of rotational minutes Boston has to fill tonight if Brogdon drops down to his normal minutes, so Boston could hold significant value here. Smart could come back, but that means the main cogs could still be asked to play for nearly 38-40 minutes.
2. Trae Young is under $9,600 on DraftKings
The Hawks and the Thunder clash tonight, and both teams are in the top eight in pace, something that is very appealing. There is certainly a bit of a cloud over the Hawks right now which we should mention –
I’m just going to say that Nate McMillian is going to lose this fight, even though it would be pretty immature of Trae Young to skip a game because he and the coach disagreed. The best way to prove his point is to show out on the court, and the Hawks are missing John Collins and De’Andre Hunter. If Young’s sample holds up, he’s the best play on the slate at his salary since he’s scoring 1.77 points per minute and has a 42.1% usage rate. Additionally, he’s driving to the basket at a top-five rate, while the Thunder are 23rd in points allowed in the paint.
3. Joel Embiid has a 39.7% usage rate without Tyrese Maxey
The Sixers could be welcoming back James Harden tonight, but even if he comes back and is fully ready for his normal minutes, Joel Embiid is in an amazing spot. Houston is just average in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, but Embiid’s game is far more than just attempts in the paint. The Rockets are 29th against scorers, 26th against superstars and 29th against primary ball-handlers. He’s scoring a massive 1.66 points per minute and is likely to end up as my favorite spend-up option (players above $10,000) on this slate.
4. Deandre Ayton is scoring 1.37 points per minute over the past two weeks
Deandre Ayton has been a monster lately, and it seems like things are clicking in a big way for him. When Chris Paul was injured for the Suns, Ayton scuffled along for a bit and missed his pick-and-roll partner. He’s now averaging 45.1 DK points across the past six games, while Dallas is 21st in points allowed in the paint. Ayton trails only Anthony Daivs for points scored in the paint right now and is over 14 rebound chances per night. He could be a sneaky option compared to one of the players in the Warriors game that is up next.
5. The Warriors have a 107.4 defensive rating at home
This number scares me with some of the Pacers tonight since the blowout risk is very real. Myles Turner might be popular since Tyrese Haliburton is out, and I understand why. Golden State has been hit hard by centers (20th against rebounders), and Turner is scoring 1.48 points per minute. However, Andrew Nembhard was the point guard last night and scored 37 DK points with eight assists with 0.96 points per minute without Haliburton. If T.J. McConnell remains out of the lineup and Turner is popular, Deandre Ayton could be a great pivot, and you can root for the Warriors to blow out the Pacers and the cheaper players hit their value.
