Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are other games today that are covered in the Game-By-Game Breakdown, but for the Five Stats article, we’re focused on the four-game main slate.
Every game is still covered, and we have the full suite of tools up and running as always, so let’s figure out what stats are going to help us to green screens tonight.
1. Jordan Poole is $5,800 on DraftKings
This could be one of the simplest plays of the evening. The Golden State Warriors played last night, so Klay Thompson will be out. Jordan Poole has picked up the start in those scenarios and should be expected to once again. When Thompson is off the floor, Poole has a 29.7% usage rate and 1.07 points per minute. The Rockets are 28th in defensive rating and 29th against primary ball-handlers. The only argument I can make against Poole is he’s likely to be the highest-rostered player on the slate, especially if more players than Thompson sit out.
2. Alperen Sengun scores 1.23 points per minute
I may have $12,000 spent in a lot of lineups since I love Alperen Sengun. The Warriors are tied for the seventh-most points allowed per game against post-ups, and Sengun scores three points per game in that play type – not to mention Golden State is in the bottom five in points allowed in the paint per game. Sengun is averaging 6.9 paint touches per game and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. This is a wonderful spot, and the salary has gotten back down to more comfortable levels.
3. Rudy Gobert is third in rebounds per game
It’s an unusual place for him since he’s still leading in rebound chances per game, but the loss of Karl-Anthony Towns for the next few weeks helps Rudy Gobert. It has been tough to fit in with Minnesota so far, but he’s shown upside, even if it’s tougher to find. Oklahoma City is 30th in rebounds allowed in the paint per game, so this is the perfect spot for him to find that upside. Gobert is also tied for the third most points per game in putbacks, while the Thunder allow the most points per game against that play type.
4. Anfernee Simons is averaging over 10 3-point attempts per game
He’s played in 20 games and has hoisted 213 shots from long range, hitting 38% of those attempts. That’s a pretty high mark for someone shooting at that volume, and it’s going to be an interesting matchup with the Jazz. They only allow the third-fewest attempts per game, but when Simons is hot he can be a sight to behold. The Jazz are only 20th against scorers this season, and Simons has the keys to the Portland offense along with Jerami Grant as long as Damian Lillard remains out.
5. Malik Beasley played more minutes than Collin Sexton last night
The game did blow out, but Malik Beasley has shown he can play 30 minutes or more when he’s playing well. Collin Sexton has had some popularity lately since the Jazz have been without Mike Conley. It makes sense, but when he gathers steam, I always like to pivot with Beasley. He’s averaged more DK points per game, is cheaper and is at 1.00 points per minute compared to 0.96 points per minute for Sexton. With the 3-point bonus, Beasley has a higher ceiling since three-point shots have made up 204 of his 292 attempts. That’s a huge amount, and when the shot is falling he can put up 35-40 DK easier than Sexton can.
