Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around in DFS Wednesday.
1. 1.27 FPPM
Ben Simmons is averaging 11 potential assists in his last four games, up from under 10 for the season. This is despite two blowout wins that capped his minutes. This uptick in assists and potential assists is partially responsible for a gigantic step forward in fantasy points per minute. His 1.05 FPPM season-long average is nothing in comparison to the 1.27 over their last four.
While a four-game sample is rarely something we want to react intensely to, my impression is that Simmons is playing with more confidence and energy than he has since before the infamous Atlanta playoff series.
The matchup with (coincidentally) Atlanta should bring more of the same as Atlanta boosts Brooklyn’s pace and is terrible defensively. My guess is you’ll find Ben Simmons among my Prizepicks plays.
2. 2.9 percentage points
With Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton both out for Milwaukee, Giannis Antetokounmpo is sure to be extremely popular. With both off the floor, however, Giannis’ usage increases from 38.2% to just 39.2%. A massive number, of course, but that sort of illustrates the point — Giannis’ usage can’t get much higher than it already is.
Meanwhile, with neither Jrue nor Middleton on the floor, Bobby Portis’ usage increases nearly three percentage points, to 24.7%. Additionally, a fair share of his minutes tonight will also come without Giannis on the floor, where his usage climbs over 27%. The more the field flocks to Giannis, the more interest I’ll have in a contrarian pivot to Portis instead.
3. 36%
With Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson each off the floor, Jordan Poole’s usage rises from under 27% to 36%. Utah is poor defensively, so Poole should be able to maintain solid efficiency even with such a jump in usage.
That said, he has turned the ball over at least four times in every game without Steph except one, so I will likely take his over on turnovers again on PrizePicks.
4. Seth Curry’s splits with and without Ben Simmons
No Joe Harris could/should mean more run for Seth Curry, and specifically more run alongside Ben Simmons. Even dating back to their time together in Philadelphia, and again this season with Brooklyn, Curry’s presence on the floor leads to an increase in Seth’s:
- FPPM
- Usage rate
- 3PAs
- True shooting %
- Effective field goal %
…and just about everything else. They haven’t played a ton of time together yet, but Simmons and T.J. Warren are showing signs of a similarly positive correlation.
5. 11.1 DK points
Nikola Jokic is averaging 11.1 more DK points at home than on the road. The Nuggets are on the road on the second leg of this back-to-back matchup with Sacramento. Since Jokic’s home/road splits have been significant in past years as well, I’m more inclined to believe there’s real signal here than I typically am with home/road splits. In any case, it’s a potential reason to fade his near-$12k price tag, particularly if he’s chalk.
