Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Friday’s NBA DFS slate is going to be a massive task, since there are 14 games and a ton of moving parts. We should have no shortage of options for the five stats that we like, because slates don’t get much bigger, and you have to be around all night if you’re planning on playing. That’s a good rule regardless of the slate, but it’s non-negotiable Friday with the entire league off Saturday, increasing the possibility teams give players a night off — a single day off Friday would give some players two or even three days off in a row, given the schedule.
1. Jalen Duren is still just $5,000
Since entering the starting lineup for Detroit two weeks ago, Duren has been a strong fantasy asset and is scoring 1.02 points per minute while leading the Pistons in paint touches at 8.4 per game. He’s also fourth across the league in rebound chances per game while averaging 13.0 per night, and the Pistons are facing the Hawks. Even though Hawks center Clint Capela has missed time (he could be back tonight), they are 26th in points allowed per game in the paint and 26th in rebounds allowed to the opponent per game. The hawks are also seventh in pace and they rank 26th against rebounders, so this is an excellent spot for Duren to keep up his strong play.
2. At FTN, we play centers against the Thunder
Oklahoma City struggles against the position as they rank 27th against skilled centers. They also rank 24th in points allowed in the paint and 30th in rebounds allowed per game to the opponent. They face the Pelicans, and the assumption is that Zion Williamson will be out, since he’s in the health and safety protocols. If he remains out, Jonas Valanciunas is going to be a fantastic play since he’s only $6,300 and produces 1.18 points per minute when Zion and Brandon Ingram are off the floor. He also only played 25 minutes last night due to five fouls so the ceiling simply does not match the salary.
3. Luka Doncic faces the team ranked 28th in defensive rating
The Mavericks are in Houston to face the Rockets, and that team has been very poor defensively to this point. Doncic is a triple-double threat every time on the floor, and he’s up to 1.64 points per minute on the season. The Dallas team is missing depth players, which puts a little bit more on Luka’s shoulders on each end of the floor. It’s been a little bit since Doncic has had a monster game, but he’s one of the safest bets for 55 DK points. There could be a ceiling outcome as well since the Rockets allow the most 3-point attempts per game and Doncic is shooting 34.5% from deep. He’s also driving to the hoop over 20 times per game and the perimeter defense for Houston is ill-equipped to stop Doncic from getting to his spots.
4. Domantas Sabonis is up to 1.34 points per minute
The Kings are hosting the Wizards. On the season, Washington is 22nd against primary ball handlers and 27th against dimers. Sabonis is also scoring 1.29 points per possession as the roll man in the pick-and-roll while the Wizards are third in points allowed per game to the roll man. The total is the highest on the slate at 239 points in addition to trailing Rudy Gobert by 0.2 rebounding chances per game. That has left him tied with Gobert for the league lead in 12.3 rebounds per game and the salary for Sabonis is still fair.
5. LeBron James is playing in a game with one of the highest totals of the season
We haven’t seen many totals over 240 points, but the Lakers hosting the Hornets sits at 241.5. Both teams are in the top 12 in pace and James is scoring 1.54 points per minute without Anthony Davis in the lineup. James has shot just 2-12 from a 3-point distance in the past three games so there is some positive regression due in that aspect of his game. We can’t play all three of Luka, Sabonis and LeBron in the same lineup, but the majority of my lineups will have one of the three. The Hornets are 27th in defensive rating and James should be in line for 35 minutes or possibly more as they need to stack wins against teams like Charlotte to survive while Davis is out.
