Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
For this article, we’re going to be dealing with Saturday’s evening five-game NBA DFS slate, but there is also a two-game slate that will be addressed in the day’s game-by-game breakdown. We have some big names on the docket for Saturday and some spots look very fun to attack, so let’s get to work.
1. Donovan Mitchell is third in points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler
That’s important for Mitchell Saturday because he’s facing the Dallas Mavericks, and they’re going to be short on big men to help defend the roll man. With all the attention that they’re going to pay to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Mitchell could put up a ton of points and he’s under $9,000. Dallas has allowed the 11th-highest field goal rate to the ball handler but they face it at the eighth-lowest frequency. Mitchell put up 34 points in the last game and still has a usage rate of over 31.0% and 1.24 points per minute.
2. Jaren Jackson scores 1.36 points per minute when Desmond Bane is off the floor
He also has dipped under $7,000, and that’s not reflective of the upside here against the Thunder. They could be pretty thin up front with injuries and played last night so while the fouls have crept back up a bit for Jackson, this is worth some risk. The Thunder rank 26th against skilled centers and 17th against rim protectors while Jackson has a 24.5% usage rate. He’s also been shooting pretty well from outside at 37.5% on the season and averages over four attempts per game while the Thunder allows the ninth-highest field goal rate from beyond the arc.
3. Khris Middleton is out for the Bucks
While he makes his comeback from injury, Jrue Holiday is expected to play, and he’s been scoring 1.25 points per minute when Middleton has been off the floor this year. The Utah Jazz are just 14th against primary ball handlers and they have been hit hard by ball handlers in the pick-and-roll, allowing the fourth-most points per game. Holiday is tied for 11th in points scored per game and he is shooting 48.1% on those attempts. The salary is very fair for the situation, and if Giannis Antetokounmpo winds up sitting, he will be among the most popular plays on the slate.
4. Jock Landale played 27 minutes in the last game
Speaking of popular players, Deandre Ayton is out again for the Suns, so Jock Landale is likely to be utter chalk. He didn’t start in the last game but he played more than Bismack Biyombo (18 minutes) and more than doubled the DK points. He’s still under $4,000 and when Ayton is off the floor, has scored 1.06 points per minute. New Orleans has only allowed the third-fewest points per game in the paint but the salary is just far too low.
5. Damian Lillard has scored 1.53 points per minute since his return
He came back into the lineup for Portland six games ago and he’s trying to make up for lost time as he’s adding on a 33.0% usage rate. He’s scored at least 36 real points in four of those six games and while he can’t sustain a true shooting rate over 72%, Houston leads the league in 3-point frequency allowed at 43.6%. Lillard played just 24 minutes last night and when he’s this hot, I tend to play him. That’s even more appealing when he faces a team that is 26th in defensive rating.
