Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a great night for the TNT NBA games since they have four marquee teams facing off, and those games are likely to contain some of the most popular players on the slate. That doesn’t mean we can’t find some good DFS plays in the other three games, and we have plenty to choose from Tuesday.
1. James Harden has a 47.2% assist rate without Tyrese Maxey on the floor
Harden has played three games since returning from his foot injury, and he’s logged 38, 47 and 38 minutes. While the 47 minutes was an overtime game, we can bank on heavy minutes from Harden against a team that is 17th in defensive rating and allow the seventh-highest conversion rate from a 3-point distance. Harden has dished out 35 assists in his three games and he just missed a triple-double in the last game. He feels like he’s underpriced when he’s under $10,000 on DK and someone to heavily consider.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo is scoring 1.68 points per minute
It’s not been the best string of results for Giannis lately but this could be a game that reverses that trend. For one thing, the Warriors have a defensive rating of 119.8 when they are on the road this season. For some context, the Spurs are currently 30th at 117.9 so this is a putrid number for Golden State. The Warriors are also playing at the third-fastest pace in the league and Giannis has an advantage on the glass since they are second in rebounding (Giannis is eighth in rebound chances per game) and it’s difficult to see anyone on the Warriors being able to slow him down that much. If Giannis shows up and is ready to play his best game, 70-plus DK points are certainly in play here. It would also help if Jrue Holiday is out with illness, but that’s not a make-or-break aspect for me.
3. The Rockets are 19th in points allowed in the paint
That would be a strong matchup for Deandre Ayton of the Suns regardless, but they will be missing Devin Booker. Ayton has posted a 23.4% usage rate and 1.36 points per minute without Booker and Ayton is tied for the second-most points per game scored in the paint to go with 14.5 rebound chances per game. Additionally, Ayton is fourth in points per game scored as the roll man in the pick-and-roll game while the Rockets allow the third-highest points per possession to the roll man. Getting Chris Paul back in the lineup is a nice boost for Ayton in that facet of the game and the salary for him should be much higher in this spot in my eyes.
4. Malcolm Brogdon is under $5,000 on DK
We’ll have to keep an eye out to make sure he’s playing since Boston played Monday. Brogdon has played three times on zero days’ rest so far this season and he’s averaging 23.8 minutes in those games. What is really interesting is in those three games, he’s scoring 16.0 points per game on 11.0 field goal attempts, both of which are higher than his season averages. There is likely a correlation between those numbers and Al Horford not being in the lineup since Brogdon is at 1.21 points per minute without Horford on the court. Brogdon will also benefit from the Lakers playing at the second-fastest pace in basketball and there is no reason for him to be this cheap.
5. Anthony Davis is scoring 14.1 points per game in the paint
I’ll give Boston credit for ranking inside the top 10 in points allowed in the paint, but that’s going to take a hit here. Davis is averaging 11.2 paint touches and the points leads the NBA by 2.9 points. With the loss of Al Horford for the Celtics and Robert Williams not back in the lineup yet, Boston is going to have a very difficult time keeping Davis out of the paint tonight. Additionally, Davis is sixth in points scored via the post-up and Boston is 27th in points allowed in that play type. If you’re spending up, I believe Davis is going to be my favorite option as he should have his way in the interior and the Lakers need every win they can possibly get.
