Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s always a ton to keep up with on any given NBA DFS slate no matter the size.
Here are five stats that stand out to me to get us started on Monday’s slate.
1. Bradley Beal remains out
While not a stat itself, Bradley Beal’s absence does a lot for the remaining Wizards, particularly Kristaps Porzingis. In 322 minutes with Beal off the floor this season, Porzingis averages 1.37 DK points per minute. He’s played 34 or more minutes in each of Washington’s last six games and has exceeded 49 DK points in four of them, including a 58.25 DK point performance against this same Nets team back on November 30.
2. Ja Morant has a 34.4% usage rate this season
Good for fourth highest in the NBA, that number climbs even higher (39.0%) with Desmond Bane off the floor. With Bane still out for a few weeks, Ja Morant should be on your radar on any slate Memphis plays while his price remains below $11k.
3. Ja Morant is questionable tonight
Okay, so maybe I’m cheating a little bit here with two Ja blurbs. I love getting to him against Atlanta if he’s active, but with a questionable tag and another for teammate Steven Adams, there is potential for another Grizzlies value night Monday. If Morant sits, Tyus Jones becomes one of the best values on the slate even at his $5.1k price tag. You’d also see the usage rate on Dillon Brooks jump to 31%, making him a very interesting mid-range option. I would potentially have even more excitement in rostering Jaren Jackson if Morant ends up out, as his usage rate (albeit in a smaller 94-minute sample size this season) jumps to a massive 35.4% with an average of 1.61 DK points per minute in that scenario. For good measure, if Adams sits, you’d want to get all kinds of Brandon Clarke exposure at $4.2k with his PF/C eligibility. Keep your eyes on Memphis news throughout the day.
4. Rudy Gobert does surprisingly well against Jusuf Nurkic
If you’re like me, you understand that you don’t have to like Rudy Gobert for him to be a good DFS play. I’m rarely a fan of getting to Gobert, and even with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined Gobert has been a more volatile fantasy asset than I expected. After two outings with 12.25 and 11 DK points, Gobert has been much more productive in his last three, averaging 1.36 DK points per minute, including 47.75 DK in this same matchup on Saturday. Over his last seven meetings with Jusuf Nurkic dating back to December 2018, Gobert is averaging 1.45 DK points per minute and 47.4 DK points per game. At his $7.2k price tag, he’s one of my favorite plays on the slate as of this writing.
5. Revenge is a dish best served… old?
Look, what I bring to the table is knowledge about the game of basketball and, on a good day, average humor. Al Horford is out again for Boston, meaning we should see Blake Griffin get another start for the Celtics tonight. What draws my attention is his recent form of three straight performances of 23.75 DK points or more, averaging 1.03 DK points per minute over that small sample. He’s center only on DK, and the price is far from the floor at $4k. But if the slate was starting now, I would actually have some interest in rostering Griffin for the first time this season. He’s taking on his old team tonight out in LA, and while more attractive value plays are likely to open up before we get to lock, keep Griffin in mind just in case we don’t. The former first-overall pick of the Clippers turns 34 after the All-Star break this season, and this is probably the last time he’ll really get to go at his old team in his career. Narratives obviously shouldn’t guide your process in DFS, but it does give me a little extra incentive to look twice at the aging all-star, at least before we all have lunch today.
