5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS April 6

Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will appear every Monday, Wednesday and Friday for the NBA regular season, coinciding with the larger slates of the week, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying stands to make and angles to take in your GPP lineups.

The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate, whether they be about an individual player or an overall team trend of note. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.

Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!

Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.

Over the last two weeks, Immanuel Quickley has averaged 20.89 points, 6.69 assists and 6.52 rebounds per 36 minutes.

With the Knicks shutting down Julius Randle and giving an extended run to their young players, Quickley has been one of the few to take full advantage. Over this span, he’s posted a 25.9% usage rate, second on the team to only RJ Barrett among active players while posting a team-high 31% assist rate. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute, another team-leading mark and is fresh off his first career triple-double ahead of an up-tempo matchup against a Nets team that will offer Quickley a heap of opportunities for production on the offensive end.

The Los Angeles Clippers rank 19th against rebounders, 25th against skilled centers and 28th against scorers, per advanced DvP.

The Clippers have been an ATM for opposing frontcourts this season and the return of Paul George hasn’t and won’t change that, rendering Deandre Ayton as a phenomenal tournament play Wednesday. Having already seen the Clippers once this season, Ayton posted a 12-point, 12-rebound double-double on an outlier 37.5% shooting from the field back in February. If you normalize his efficiency, he would have coasted past a 20-10 double-double. The Suns may not roll him out for 30-plus minutes, but his per-minute production renders him an elite option. If he’s rested on the second leg of a back-to-back, JaVale McGee will become the obvious chalk of choice in a smash matchup.

The Bulls are 1-15 against teams in the top-three seeds of either the Eastern or Western Conference this season.

Despite the array of two-way talent on Chicago, the Bulls simply have not lived up to expectations this season, particularly against contenders. While the outcome of the game doesn’t necessarily correlate directly to DFS, it can certainly sway your decision-making when evaluating your interest level in players on either side of this game as well as provide a strong lean in the betting market. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are listed as probable for this game and, assuming both are active, are in smash spots against a weak defensive unit despite the on-paper impression they leave as individual defenders. If one of them is a surprising inactive, the other would be a smash-play in single entry contests. If both are active, they are both worthy GPP fliers. The real interest here for me, however, is the betting market (free bet alert!). If the Celtics open up as anything less than six or seven-point favorites, I intend to hammer their spread.

Only two players over the last five games have averaged more touches per game than Theo Maledon (93.2): Nikola Jokic (114.6) and Dejounte Murray (93.7).

You know we’re in the dead heat of April NBA when we stare at a $7,100 Theo Maledon and think, “Oh wow, this is a nice price.” With the Thunder shutting down virtually everyone of value on their team, Maledon has assumed the role as the primary ball-handler, even in games with Tre Mann active. Over this five-game span, Maledon has topped the likes of James Harden (90.2), Kyrie Irving (88.4) and Darius Garland (87.6). Coincidentally, with all the Thunder inactives, teammate Alexsej Pokusevski has ranked right behind Irving in touches per game (88.3). This goes to show just how thin this team is and how irrelevant matchup is when volume is at an all-time high. Both Maledon and Pokusevski are great GPP options, with Maledon being my preference for the ceiling.

Over that same five-game span, Kristaps Porzingis has posted the sixth-highest usage rate (34.9%) in the NBA among players averaging at least 25 minutes per game.

He clocks in with a usage rate 0.3% lower than MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, as Porzingis has made the most of his time (albeit rather capped time) with Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma absent. Wednesday marks the second leg of a back-to-back for the oft-injured big man, but having played in the recent back-to-backs, he should be good to go. The Hawks are a matchup that will challenge Porzingis on the glass but offer a ton of peripheral upside given the proximity he’ll play to the rim and his ability to stretch the floor and force mismatches onto players like Clint Capela and Danilo Gallinari on the offensive end.