Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tuesday’s 13-game NBA DFS slate is going to be a challenge, and not just because that’s a whole lot of games. Six games of the 13 have opened at more than a double-digit spread, so that’s going to be a large issue to navigate, although playoff positioning will help us out. Too many teams have the motivation to play to ignore so let’s get to work.
1. Charlotte is 29th in rebounds allowed per game
Since Jakob Poeltl has been in Toronto, he’s averaged 16.6 rebound chances per game and that’s 11th in the league. In addition, the Hornets can’t defend the paint either since they are 23rd in points per game allowed in the paint and this is a beautiful spot for Poeltl. In this same matchup Sunday, Poeltl recorded 41.25 DK points on just missed the double-double bonus on DK. Poeltl is under $7,000 on both sites and the Raptors have clinched a play-in spot, but can still climb to the seventh or eighth seed in the East.
2. Mikal Bridges is scoring 6.8 points per game as a spot-up shooter
This is more of a DraftKings play because FanDuel has reacted to Bridges being the best offensive player on the Nets. DK is still lagging behind and while it almost feels like cheating to feature Bridges in this space again, I’m just going to continue to play him when he’s $8,300. The Wolves are fifth in pace and that’s a nice jump for the Nets, who are 20th in the league. Additionally, Bridges is trailing only his teammate Cameron Johnson in points per game as a spot-up shooter and he’s going to challenge the Wolves. They have faced the third-fewest attempts per game but the FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows us the matchup for Bridges is excellent –
3. The Pelicans are allowing a 68.7% field goal rate within five feet of the basket
New Orleans is going to have their hands full with the Kings’ De’Aaron Fox, and this game carries one of the highest totals of the night. Fox drives to the basket 15.7 times per game and cores 12.0 points per game from those drives, the fifth-most in the league. The Pelicans are only 13th in the league in points per game allowed in the paint but they also allow the highest field goal rate within five feet of the hoop and on DK, Fox has inexplicably fallen to $7,700.
4. The Utah Jazz are 25th in points per game allowed in the paint
This matchup between the Jazz and the Lakers Tuesday could not be better for Anthony Davis because the dynamite rookie center Walker Kessler is done for the season. That was the only real rim protection that Utah had and they already bled points in the paint. Now they have to face Davis who leads the league in points per game in the paint and scores 1.49 points per minute on this Lakers squad. Davis is also playing like the player Los Angeles traded the farm for in the past five games, averaging 33.6 real points and almost 12 rebounds per game. He’s expensive but he should be and Davis should be able to score in the paint at will.
5. Kevin Durant is under $10,000 on both sites
On DK, Durant is somehow still under $9,000 and I find myself not exactly caring that Phoenix is such a heavy favorite against the Spurs. The Suns have to hold onto homecourt advantage for the playoffs and Durant has played exactly 195 minutes for the Suns so far. That’s not a lot at all, and while he’s scoring 1.36 points per minute, building their chemistry is the main goal in the last week of the season. I still firmly believe we’ll get plenty of minutes from Durant and the Spurs are dead last in defensive rating without any recourse to stop Durant from doing whatever he wants.
