5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS April 17

Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This article will be provided by yours truly to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying stands to make and angles to take in your GPP lineups.

The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate, whether they be about an individual player or an overall team trend of note. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.

Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!

Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.

Note: Due to the size of the slate, there will be four total stats; one from each game.

In eight games without Clint Capela this season, Onyeka Okongwu has averaged 39.81% more DraftKings points per game (27.19).

Okongwu has seen his price rise ($5,100) in anticipation of Capela’s absence, but given the lack of value on playoff slates, this should still be seen as an attractive price. In the eight games without Capela this season, Okongwu has averaged 10.25 points and 7.25 rebounds while adding 2.38 blocks in 28.12 minutes per game. His most recent two games without Capela stick out even more, averaging 14.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 2.0 assists in 35 minutes per game. The matchup is far from ideal, as Miami has one of the best interior defenses in the NBA, but it also provides added shot-blocking upside for a player whose salary leaves room for a ceiling given the role he should have.

The Pelicans rank 25th against Dimers, per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP.

If only one player comes to mind when thinking of the term “dimer”, it’s Chris Paul. He led the entire NBA in both assists per game (10.8), assist points created per game (27.2), potential assists per game (19.6) as well as adjusted assists per game (13.1), numbers that surprise virtually nobody. The Pelicans have tightened the screws defensively over the last month or so but have still struggled against facilitators. Paul has been able to exploit this both times that he saw his former team this season, posting 15 and 18 assists in the two games, respectively. Given the nature of the game, Paul should see 35-plus minutes and take on a larger role in the scoring department as well, giving him a good shot for 30 combined points and assists. He has both a massive ceiling and a healthy floor at under $8,000 on DraftKings on Sunday.

Of the three Bulls’ studs (DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic), it’s Vucevic who has been the most productive per-minute player when all three are sharing the court this season.

All three players average over a DraftKings point per minute, but both LaVine (1.03) and DeRozan (1.04) hover right around the point-per-minute mark, despite posting the two highest usage rates (27.4% and 25.3%, respectively) on the team. Vucevic, however, has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute despite trailing in usage rate (22.7%), while posting a team-high 19.7% rebounding rate and a respectable 13.1% assist rate. He’s turned these rates into 18.64 points, 12.52 rebounds and 3.13 assists per 36 minutes when sharing the floor with these players and comes in at a reasonable $7,700. In what’s a rather loaded mid-tier this slate, Vucevic stands out as an intriguing tournament play given the likely uptick in minutes as well as his stable production when sharing the court with the other studs.

Over his last 15 games, Bruce Brown has averaged 15.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.6 steals/blocks per game

He’s averaged 33.9 minutes over this span and has, surprisingly, operated as the third-best player on the Nets behind the obvious Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. He’s averaged just over a DraftKings point per minute over that span while posting a 16.7% usage rate, 16.6% assist rate and 10.1% rebounding rate. $6,500 may instill a sense of sticker shock among DFS players, but if we removed the name and looked at recent form and 40-plus minute upside, he’d be one of the most popular plays on the slate.