(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff preview!)

After a thrilling play-in game clinched the seventh seed in the Western Conference for the Golden State Warriors, they’ll head to Houston to begin what should be a devastatingly physical first-round series.

The Warriors are the lower seed, but they’re a completely different team now than when the majority of their regular season struggles occurred in the first half of the year. The acquisition of Jimmy Butler was a massive boost to their talent floor, toughness and morale as a group. Since Butler arrived in the trade with Miami, the Warriors have gone 23-8, the third-best record in the NBA over that span just behind Oklahoma City and Boston. 

Houston’s season can be broken down into three parts. During the first half of the year, they came flying out of the gates, posting a 32-14 record by Jan. 28 as the All-Star break approached. Then they hit a wall, losing 11 of their next 16 games and causing pundits to hit the panic button on the young Rockets. But head coach Ime Udoka pulled them out of the midseason funk just in time for the stretch run, as Houston went 15-5 over their final 20 games and clinched the second seed in a highly competitive Western Conference with time to spare. 

In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up, and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Rockets vs. Warriors at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The seventh-seeded Warriors are the current betting favorites at -200 at DraftKings. 

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Warriors a 57.7% chance to win, compared to 42.3% for the Rockets. It projects to be a more competitive series than the market indicates, which can provide some advantageous opportunities for us at the books.

Rockets vs. Warriors: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Rockets faced the Warriors four times this season, with the Warriors winning the season series 3-1. 

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• Close Games: Even though the Warriors won three of the four regular season meetings, the combined score was Houston 418-Warriors 427, with all four games decided by 10 points or fewer, including one that went to overtime.
• New Looks: Both teams look drastically different headed into the playoffs compared to their first two meetings of the season. Jimmy Butler is now on the Warriors, while Andrew Wiggins was shipped to Miami in return, plus Amen Thompson has taken over Jabari Smith Jr.’s spot in the Rockets starting unit. 
• There Was a Fifth: These two teams met up in the knockout rounds of the NBA Cup, where the Rockets won 91-90. This game is not included in the regular season standings or statistics but is another example of this matchup being highly competitive.

Major Takeaways:

• The Rockets having homecourt advantage could play a significant role in this series. Houston was 29-12 at home this season, which was the sixth best home record in the NBA.
• The Rockets most convincing performance of the year in this matchup was the most recent one, a 10-point road win April 6 that saw the defensive duo of Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks hold Stephen Curry to 1-of-10 shooting. It was Curry’s worst offensive output in nearly five months and only the second time since March 2022 that he made fewer than two field goals in a game. 
• This is the first playoff meeting between the two clubs since they faced off four times in five seasons 2015-2019.

Rockets vs. Warriors: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

This will be far from the fastest first-round series in this year’s playoffs, but Houston picked up the pace slightly to end the season, with the Rockets ranking 14th over the final 15 games. 

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Push. While the full season numbers point to Houston having the edge, the Warriors posted better numbers in all three categories after the All-Star break and the acquisition of Jimmy Butler.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Warriors. While the full season numbers paint this closer to a “push,” I’m giving the edge to Golden State. In the post All-Star break sample they were 16th in effective FG%, ninth in true shooting%, 11th in 3PT% and third in free throws per game, all better rates than Houston in that span. 

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Rockets. The Rockets are monsters on the glass, but this isn’t as clear cut an edge as it would be against most other teams. The Warriors are also a top team in the rebounding categories, though if you reference the post All-Star break numbers, they did have slight dips across the board while Houston remained at the top. 

Rockets vs. Warriors: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Stephen Curry vs. Amen Thompson

The matchup that had the NBA world buzzing after these two teams met in the Bay earlier this month, Thompson’s effort guarding Curry in that game was impressive and his resume this season is likely to land him on an All-Defensive team.

Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors

• Games Played: 70
• Stats: 24.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 44.8% FG, 39.7% 3PT, 93.3% FT
• Advanced: 57.2% eFG, 21.5 PER, 7.9 Win Shares

Curry put on another show in the play-in game Tuesday night against Memphis, scoring 15 of his 37 points in the fourth quarter. He led the league in both three pointers attempted and made per game, along with leading the league in free throw percentage for the fifth time in his 16-year career.

The key for Steph: Can he hold up against the physical play of the Rockets? The answer earlier this month was no, but that one game sample is not to be treated as gospel. Curry went for 27 points in the previous meeting between the two teams in February. He’ll face a steady diet of Thompson, Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet in this series, who will look to make his life on the court a living hell for the next two weeks. 

Amen Thompson – Houston Rockets

• Games Played: 69
• Stats: 14.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.8 APG
• Shooting Splits: 55.7% FG, 27.5% 3PT, 68.4% FT
• Advanced: 57.5% eFG, 18.7 PER, 8.0 Win Shares

Amen took a massive leap forward in his sophomore season in Houston, taking over a starting spot from fellow former number three overall pick Jabari Smith Jr. in the middle of the year. He was instrumental in the Rockets ascent to being a top team in the ultra-competitive Western Conference this season and looks to be on pace toward All-Star nods in future seasons. 

The key for Thompson: Can he provide enough offensively to power the Rockets through to the second round? Amen is not a good shooter, but instead of trying to force things, he plays within himself and is selective with his shots, taking 86.9% of his attempts from inside the arc and shooting 60% on those shots. 

Jimmy Butler vs. Dillon Brooks

Two of the most physical and confident players in the league (we can save the debate about how rational Brooks’ confidence is for another time), this is a duo to watch in this series. In the game between these teams earlier this month Brooks was the primary assignment on Butler, who has been on an offensive tear over the last three games, scoring 27.3 points per game on 61/50/89 shooting splits in that small but recent sample.

Jimmy Butler – Golden State Warriors

• Games Played: 30
• Stats: 17.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.9 APG
• Shooting Splits: 47.6% FG, 27.9% 3PT, 87.0% FT
• Advanced: 50.4% eFG, 22.2 PER, 4.9 Win Shares

Butler’s raw numbers have never really jumped off the page throughout his 14-year career. He’s never averaged more than 23.9 points per game and has never been anything close to resembling a consistent three-point shooter. But what he lacks in offensive efficiency he more than makes up for with his knack for making the right play on both ends of the floor and his elite ability to get to the free throw line. 

The key for Jimmy: Can he raise his level on the offensive end to meet the challenges that Houston presents? He showed up in a big way against another sizable opponent on Tuesday in the Grizzlies, scoring 38 points and getting to the line 18 times. The Dubs will need multiple performances of that nature to discard the Rockets. 

Note: Stats are for Golden State games only

Dillon Brooks – Houston Rockets

• Games Played: 75
• Stats: 14.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 APG
• Shooting Splits: 42.9% FG, 39.7% 3PT, 81.8% FT
• Advanced: 53.3% eFG, 11.0 PER, 5.1 Win Shares

Dillon Brooks is a menace. One of the most disliked players for opposing teams and fans alike, he’s made his name as a 3-and-D wing from his time in Memphis and now Houston, not backing down from the biggest names in the game. 

The key for Brooks: Can he be his normal physical self without getting in foul trouble? The Rockets are deep enough to survive a bout or two of foul-shortened games from Brooks, but they struggle so much to spread the floor offensively that they need his shooting ability out there as much as possible. If the whistle goes against him in this series it could spell doom for Houston.

Series Prediction: Rockets vs. Warriors

This is the classic case of market perception vs. model reality. The sportsbooks see the Warriors as significant favorites, and while FTN’s model and I are on board, I agree with the model that we should be slightly less confident in that outcome than the public.

FTN Model Prediction: Warriors

According to FTN’s model, this series isn’t as one-sided as the sportsbooks indicate — but slightly favors Golden State.

Zac’s Pick: Warriors in 6

I’ve been back and forth between this pick and Rockets in seven, but ultimately I can’t get past the thought that Golden State’s overwhelming experience gap over Houston is going to be a deciding factor in a series that looks ultra-competitive on paper. Between Curry, Butler and Draymond Green there are 14 career trips to the NBA Finals, while Houston’s roster is much more inexperienced. 

Best Bets for Rockets vs. Warriors

With FTN’s model projecting this series close, but slightly favoring Houston, there are a few bets that stand out based on both value and the most likely outcomes from our simulations.

Best Bet 1: Rockets to Win the Series

(+165, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you’re following the data, this is the bet to make.

FTN’s model gives Houston a 42.3% chance to win this series — implying true odds closer to +136. But the market is pricing them like a more significant underdog at +165.

That’s a big enough edge to draw my attention, even though it clashes with my personal pick for the series. If you think Houston can win this series then I would encourage you to jump on this number, especially if it continues to climb after opening at +150. 

Best Bet 2: Jimmy Butler Series Leader Total Points

(+390, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Now this is some value at DK Sportsbook. Butler has taken on a big scoring load over the Warriors last two games, both of which were of the “must-win” variety. 

Stephen Curry is the clear betting favorite to lead the series in scoring at -140, but Butler’s +390 feels like good value considering what he’s done offensively in these big games this week.

Against the Clippers on the final day of the regular season, Butler matched Curry’s 20 shot attempts (although Curry took 12 threes while Butler attempted just two) along with his nine trips to the free throw line. Then in the play-in game on Tuesday Butler led the team in scoring, taking another 20 shot attempts to Curry’s 22 and racking up 18 free throw attempts.

Considering Houston’s success defending Curry in the April 6 meeting between these two teams, nearly 4-to-1 odds on Butler leading the way when all is said and done in this series feels like a good place to sprinkle some action.

Final Thoughts on Rockets vs. Warriors

This is expected to be one of the most competitive first-round series in this year’s playoffs. It’s mind boggling to think about this matchup given how many great series we had between these two franchises in the latter half of the 2010’s. While Houston has completely re-tooled their roster from the ground up as we now sit in the mid-2020’s, the Warriors core pairing of Curry and Green is still alive and kicking, paired with Jimmy Butler and now favored as the seven seed in a first round series. 

One aspect of this matchup we haven’t discussed yet is the coaching. I’m a big fan of the work Ime Udoka has done in Houston over the last two seasons and while Steve Kerr is a four-time champion on that same sideline, Udoka’s confident (and somewhat defiant) personality bleeds through to his players. If Houston can hold serve at home through the first two games, alarm bells should start to sound for Warriors fans and those of us who are backing Golden State.