2025 NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Nuggets Series Preview and Analysis

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The Oklahoma City Thunder face the Denver Nuggets in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs in a rematch of Northwest Division rivals.

The Thunder have been the best team in the Western Conference, and probably the entire league, all season. Oklahoma City has arguably the best roster in the league. It’s full of young, athletic players whose games are flexible. They can go with bigger lineups without sacrificing perimeter defense and offensive ability. Smaller lineups designed to be faster and more explosive offensively can hold up against bigger, more physical players. The Thunder even have a top three star who defends at a high level and just finished one of the best guard scoring seasons in NBA history. Everything is in place to not only win this season but win the title. It’s just a matter of execution at the highest level.

The Nuggets have the best player in the NBA in Nikola Jokić and a guard, Jamal Murray, who fits perfectly next to him. They had a rough end to the season dealing with injuries and a new coach with only a few games left. They were able to beat the Los Angeles Clippers in Round 1, but it took seven hard played games. Denver is playing four guys 39-plus minutes per game, two guys 25-plus, and just one other player has averaged more than 10 minutes in the postseason. That limits flexibility and rest for the Nuggets which will be a big problem in this round. Denver will have to play their very best and find new ways to raise their level to advance.

The Thunder should win this series and probably without much trouble, but there are several angles for us to attack in the betting markets. In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up, and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Thunder vs. Nuggets at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The top-seeded Thunder are huge favorites priced at -700 at DraftKings. The best-of-seven format gives the better team more time to ply their edge over the underdog. It’s a deep number, but it might not actually be deep enough.

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Thunder a 78.9% chance to win, compared to 21.1% for the Nuggets. We agree with the market that Oklahoma City should be favored but only make the Thunder -374 favorites.

Although we price the Nuggets as smaller underdogs than the books, it’s not a big enough edge for us to bet.

Thunder vs. Nuggets: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Thunder faced the Nuggets four times this season. Each team won twice and covered the spread twice.

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• The Possession Battle Was Tight: There was only a seven-possession difference over four games, less than two additional possessions per game.
• The Winner of Every Game Shot Much Better: The victor of all four matchups was close 7% better from the field and beyond the arc on average.
• Shooting Profiles Were Similar: Both teams shoot roughly the same number of threes and free throws, less than a difference of three on average, over the four games.

Major Takeaways:

• Teams can create extra scoring chances by turning the ball over less and/or grabbing for offensive rebounds than their opponents. These additional possessions can be a huge advantage. Either team might shift their strategy to force more turnovers or attack the glass on offense more aggressively. I think the Nuggets will have to try tactics like this to win games in this series.
• This matchup has seen big swings offensive efficiency throughout the regular season. Each team made adjustments to better attack the opposing defense. The Thunder have a bigger advantage when it comes to adapting because of their much better coaching staff.
• Denver shot the fewest threes of any team in the regular season and the Thunder were in the bottom five in free attempts. Despite having those issues across 82 games, both squads were able to adjust their styles when playing one another.

Thunder vs. Nuggets: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

Both teams played a fast style all season. Things tend to slow down in the NBA Playoffs, but I think we’ll see both squads try to push the ball when the opportunity presents itself.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Oklahoma City, the Thunder are an elite NBA team. The Nuggets have an elite offense, but a bad defense. Denver is going to have to find a way to raise their level on that end of the floor.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Denver, the Nuggets are one of the very best shooting teams in the league while the Thunder are just a great shooting team. Denver might struggle to shoot this well against the best defense in the NBA.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Denver, the Nuggets are a great rebounding team, and they need to press this advantage. Additional possessions are key to their chances and the Thunder rarely turn over the ball.

Thunder vs. Nuggets: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Chet Holmgren vs. Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokić is Denver’s best player and will be the focal point of Oklahoma City’s defense. The Thunder’s big men have a tough challenge and will need to defend Jokic well to stay on the floor. Chet Holmgren is the most important of those big men for Oklahoma City. The Thunder are more than 5 points better per 100 possessions with Holmgren on the floor, per FTN’s NBA Splits Tool. Holmgren is a good defender and done well against Jokić. He’ll need to continue to play well against the three-time MVP to warrant being on the floor. If Jokić can find a way to score consistently on Holmgren, the Thunder could be forced to limit the minutes of one of their biggest contributors.

Chet Holmgren – Oklahoma City Thunder

• Games Played: 32
• Stats: 15.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 49.0% FG, 37.9% 3PT, 75.4% FT
• Advanced: 55.4% eFG, 19.2 PER, 3.2 Win Shares

Chet Holmgren missed most of the season, but when he played, the Thunder were at their very best. On offense, he’s good finished around the rim and a good shooter from beyond the arc. Holmgren gives Oklahoma City a big man who can score in the paint without shrinking the space on the floor for the rest of the team. Defensively, he’s a good rim protector, averaging over two blocks per game, and a capable perimeter defender. That allows the Thunder to play Holmgren next to another center in big lineups without being susceptible to faster players.

The key for Chet Holmgren: Make Nikola Jokić work. On defense, Holmgren needs to stay in front of Jokic and try to challenge every he does without fouling. On offense, Holmgreen needs to make Jokić chase him around the floor and draw him out to the three-point line with his shooting. If he can do all that, Holmgren might be able to keep Jokic from beating the Thunder on his own.

Nikola Jokić – Denver Nuggets

• Games Played: 70
• Stats: 29.6 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 7.2 APG
• Shooting Splits: 57.6% FG, 41.7% 3PT, 80.0% FT
• Advanced: 62.7% eFG, 32.0 PER, 16.4 Win Shares

Nikola Jokić is arguably the best player in NBA history with one, or even two, championship titles. For the last few seasons, he has redefined what it means to be excellent on the court. He leads the league in win shares, BPM and value above replacement. He’s top three in points per game, assists per game, rebounds per game and steals per game while being one of the best three-point shooters. He might not be the MVP this season but has been three times already and is clearly the MVP of the Nuggets.

The key for Nikola Jokić: Keeping enough in the tank to dominate games late. Jokić has already put in a yeoman’s effort to drag Denver this far. If he wants to keep his season going, he’s going to have to find ways to save energy early in games so that he can win close games late.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Jamal Murray

This matchup between the two best guards on each team could define the series. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just finished one of the best guard seasons in NBA history and Jamal Murray got back to his highest level in Round 1 after a disappointing regular season. Similar to the previous matchup, SGA is the much better player, but Murray is capable of making him work and keep this closer than expected. If Murray can’t maintain the level we saw in hist first series, there is not much Denver will be able to do to slow down SGA.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder

• Games Played: 76
• Stats: 32.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.4 APG
• Shooting Splits: 51.9% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 89.8% FT
• Advanced: 56.9% eFG, 30.7 PER, 16.7 Win Shares

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming favorite to be this season’s NBA MVP. He was wildly impressive on the offense end of the floor all season. SGA scored consistently and in every phase of the game. He made threes, shot well in the midrange, and got the basket where he was often able to draw fouls. He accomplished all of that while also being one of the better defenses on the best defense in the NBA. All that’s left for SGA to accomplish this season is to win the NBA title.

The key for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Be in control of the games. As the lead ballhandler for Oklahoma City, he can create pace or slow things down when needed. The Thunder are the better team, but they are still young. The Denver Nuggets are much more experienced in the NBA Playoffs and won’t get tight in big moments. SGA has to know when to attack on his own or get his teammates involved to be sure Oklahoma City can handle tight spots in each game.

Jamal Murray – Denver Nuggets

• Games Played: 67
• Stats: 21.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 6.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 47.4% FG, 39.3% 3PT, 88.6% FT
• Advanced: 54.3% eFG, 17.8 PER, 6.2 Win Shares

Murray was excellent in Round 1 and showed flashes of the guy we saw in the NBA Finals two season ago. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been healthy often and has missed the last few weeks with the same hamstring injury that has hampered him throughout his career. Murray running the pick and roll with Jokic is still one of the very best plays in the NBA. Denver will go far if they can run it every game. Hopefully, Murray can keep playing the way we saw last round. The Nuggets certainly need him to do that if they’re going to make the next round.

The key for Jamal Murray: Not getting injured. Murray has to play if the Nuggets are going to win. The postseason offers more rest with at least one, and often more, day off between games. Murray needs to make good use of that time rehabbing and preparing himself for game action.

Series Prediction: Thunder vs. Nuggets

Our model at FTN agrees with the sportsbooks that the Thunder should be favored, but we make them slightly less of a favorite.

FTN Model Prediction: Thunder

According to FTN’s model, the Thunder are more than likely to win this series and advance.

Noops’ Pick: Thunder in 5

Oklahoma City crushed the Memphis Grizzlies in Round 1 and have had over a week to rest, recover and prepare while the Denver Nuggets were gutting out a seven-game series win against the Los Angeles Clippers. It’s far too much to expect the Nuggets who are effectively only playing six guys to survive such a big rest advantage. Even if Denver decides to punt Game 1 and Game 2 knowing they can even the series at home, it won’t be enough to get their players fresh enough to beat Oklahoma City. This will be Nikola Jokic’s toughest test in a while. The Thunder have two good centers to guard him one-on-one and a myriad of long, athletic defenders to try to double team him or keep his teammates from getting open. The Nuggets have much more experience in big games, but the Thunder learned a lot in their run to the Western Conference Finals last postseason and are very familiar with this Denver team. There’s few, if any, edges for the Nuggets which means this should be a fairly straightforward series win for the Thunder.

Best Bets for Thunder vs. Nuggets

With such a big favorite, it’s hard to find bets that don’t force us to lay a lot of juice, but there are still a few wagers worth making.

Best Bet 1: Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 Games

(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This means the Thunder either sweep the Nuggets or close them out in Game 5 at home. Everything points to Oklahoma City winning this series, and I think they do so without much trouble. There are not many, if any, advantages for Denver to attack to allow them win games. The Nuggets can definitely steal a game at home, but I don’t think they can steal two without winning in Oklahoma City which is a tall task. The Thunder a player just as good as Nikola Jokić, more depth and homecourt advantage. Thanks to extra time off after Round 1 they should rested and ready to beat the Nuggets in five games or fewer.

Best Bet 2: Chet Holmgren Series Leader Total 3s Made

(+950, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Holmgren shot the second-most threes for the Thunder in Round 1 and made the most threes for the team. I expect him to continue to shoot as much as possible from deep in this series. Either he’ll have Nikola Jokić guarding him and will want to pull him away from the basket or Holmgren will be covered by a player much shorter than him so he can just pull up and shoot over them. Denver shot the fewest threes all season and have only one player that averaged more than 2.5 attempts from three per game in Round 1. There’s always a chance that one of the Thunder’s guards or wings wins this market, but I love this price for Holmgren. I think there’s a much better than 9.5% chance he finishes with the most made threes when the series ends.

Final Thoughts on Thunder vs. Nuggets

I hope Nikola Jokić finds a way to make this series interesting. He’s absolutely incredible, and I love watching his ability to problem solve on offense against anything defenses throw at him. The best player often wins the series in the NBA Playoffs, but Jokić has strong competition in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a much worse team around him. I don’t expect Jokic to drag the Nuggets into the Western Conference Finals, but I am excited to see him try. Unless he can be heroic, this should be a quick series and a short prelude to the Thunder’s second ever appearance in the NBA Finals.