2024-2025 NBA Most Improved Player Odds and Best Bets

The NBA season is almost here! One of the most fun parts of the NBA and one of best ways to find value in the preseason NBA betting is the awards market. Most Valuable Player, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year offer ways to bet on a team’s success outside of the standard futures markets. Let’s take a look at each previous award winner, see what leads to success and find the best prices for us to bet.

NBA Most Improved Player Award

Past 10 Winners

• 2024: Tyrese Maxey (PHI)
• 2023: Lauri Markkanen (UTA)
• 2022: Ja Morant (MEM)
• 2021: Julius Randle (NYK)
• 2020: Brandon Ingram (NOP)
• 2019: Pascal Siakam (TOR)
• 2018: Victor Oladipo (IND)
• 2017: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
• 2016: CJ McCollum (POR)
• 2015: Jimmy Butler (CHI)

Key Takeaways From Past Winners

• The last 10 winners combined to play 706 games and started in 705 of them in the seasons they won. Pascal Siakam came off the bench in the third game of the season he won.
• On average, the Most Improved Player is in his fourth or fifth season. Only two of the last 10 were past their fifth season. 
• The last 10 winners played on winning teams, with an average win rate of 56.4%.
• The winner increased their points per game (PPG) by 7.6, rebounds per game (RPG) by 1.5 and assists per game (APG) by 1.3 on average.
• Eight of the last 10 winners made an all-star team.
• To summarize: We want a starter on a winning team, in his first five years in the league with an opportunity for big increases in PPG, RPG and APG totals, who can be an all-star.

Current Best MIP Betting Odds

Bets to Avoid

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs 

+700, DraftKings

It’s going to be tough for the former No. 1 draft pick to meet the criteria we want or exceed expectations enough to win this award. Wembanyama averaged 21 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists in 29.7 minutes per game. He’s not going to see a meaningful increase in minutes, so there would need to be a big increase in his usage for him to get to 28+ points, 11+ rebounds and 5+ assists per game. The Spurs would have to almost double their win total from last season to be a winning team. Wembanyama is all but a lock to be an all-star, but given that’s what everyone thinks is going to happen, there’s not much room for him to exceed expectations. There’s no value in this price. 

Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder 

+1000, BetMGM, DraftKings

Williams was a contender for this award last season, which makes it tough for him to raise his averages and exceed what’s expected of him. The Thunder will be one of the best teams in the league, and voters will be looking to lavish them with awards, but this won’t be one of them. Williams is unlikely to be an all-star or find a way to raise his points, rebounds and assists numbers enough to garnish attention for the Most Improved Player award. Don’t bet this.

Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors

Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

+2500, FanDuel, +3000, BetMGM

Both are good candidates for this award if the Raptors can somehow be a winning team. The problem is that if Toronto can exceed its current regular season total by 10+ games, Quickley and Barnes will have to split the credit and split the votes. To add to the dilemma, Quickley is unlikely to be an all- star as a guard in the Eastern Conference, and Barnes made an all-star team last year, setting the bar high for him for this upcoming season. Those may look like high prices, but they aren’t high enough.

Bets to Consider Later in the Season

Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons 

+2500, FanDuel

A former No. 1 draft pick has never won this award, but Ja Morant, a No. 2 draft pick, won a few years ago, making this less of a concern. The bigger issue is that the Detroit Pistons might just stink again. They won just 14 games last season and would need to triple that number to be a .500 basketball team. That seems unlikely, but if the Pistons can make the Play-In Tournament and Cunningham averages 28 points, eight assists and six rebounds per game, he’ll get some attention for this award. Let’s keep an eye on Detroit, and if it shows signs of life, we’ll revisit Cade’s chances.

Jalen Green, Houston Rockets 

+3000, MGM

The Houston Rockets just missed the Play-In Tournament last season without Alperen Sengun for the last two months. Sengun is back, and the Rockets are poised to win 42+ games and compete for a playoff spot. Green played better as the season progressed and took over the offense in Sengun’s absence. If he can hold onto that role for the entire season and average 25+ points per game, Green will get some very serious consideration for this award. I’m going to wait to see how the team looks and how Reed Sheppard is integrated into the offense. If the Rockets are winning games and Green is getting buckets, we’ll likely end up betting on him in a few weeks.

Bets to Place

Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors 

+4000, MGM, 0.5U

He averaged just nine points, six rebounds and almost four assists per game last season. Podziemski started just 28 of the 74 games he played. The bar to improve his stats is very low, and Podziemski is set to be a starter for the Golden State Warriors this season. The Warriors won 56% of their games last season and improved their team in the offseason. The only concern is that Podziemski isn’t going to be an all-star. Despite that, there’s a chance for him to average 15+ points, eight rebounds and seven assists as a key piece of a Warriors team that’s winning games. If he can do that, Podziemski will be a dark-horse candidate for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award and worth a bet at +4000 or better.

Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks 

+5000, Caesars, 0.5U

Lively was a revelation for the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs. He can protect the rim, defend perimeter players, finish at the rim and is even a good passer. Daniel Gafford is set to be the starter, but I think Lively can take over that spot. At the very least, I expect him to play more minutes and be on the floor at the end of games where he can make highlight-winning plays. Lively averaged just nine points, seven rebounds, one assist and two STOCKs (steals+blocks). Those are some very low bars for someone who is a perfect fit for the Mavericks and should have chances to make impact plays in big moments. It will be tough for Lively to be an all-star, but every other box is checked. At +5000 or better, he’s worth a wager to be MIP.