Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my 2023 NBA Mock Draft. I’ve mocked all 30 first-round picks below, with a bit more attention paid to the lottery picks (1-14). At the end of the article, you can find a few prop bets for draft night if you are so inclined to tail! Enjoy.
2023 NBA Mock Draft
1. San Antonio — Victor Wembanyama (Metropolitans 92)
I’ve stopped short of joining Adrian Wojnarowski on the “best prospect in the history of team sports” train, but there’s little doubt that Wembanyama is the best draft prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James. As the only person you know who named their dog “Wembanyama” nine months before the draft lottery, I made my feelings clear on what this means for my favorite team when that Silver and Black logo came out of the envelope marked “1” on lottery night in May. There’s nothing to debate or convince you of here, we all know Wemby is the pick, so I’ll keep this blurb short. We got him. Go Spurs Go.
2. Charlotte — Scoot Henderson (G League Ignite)
The esteemed Mike Randle and I made the case a few weeks ago that if Wembanyama didn’t exist, we’d be talking about Henderson being in his own tier at the top of this draft. There’s still a lot of confusion between the second and third pick, not just because there appears to be uncertainty from league sources over the past few weeks on who will be chosen first between Henderson and Brandon Miller, but also because both Charlotte and Portland could very well trade their picks for the right return. If Charlotte does in fact make the pick, they’d do well to just take Henderson and figure out any potential chemistry issues between LaMelo Ball and him later. That pairing could also work out better than we may think at first glance. There’s an argument to be made that they complement each other nicely — Ball a finesse distributor who can shoot the lights out at times from deep and Henderson a physical powerhouse at the position, both maestros of tempo. It could be a guard pairing that elicits a lot of jealousy from rival fanbases a few years down the road. All this backcourt fantasizing could be for naught, however — Tuesday night, Woj reported that the Hornets are closing in on Brandon Miller with the second pick. Vegas odds have shifted dramatically toward that outcome, so do with it what you will. Miller may very well be the guy who gets his name called second on Thursday, just keep in mind that while Woj is of course the go-to source for NBA knowledge like this, 48 hours out from last year’s draft he was selling us on the idea that Jabari Smith was going first to Orlando. I’m holding strong in my belief that Henderson is the “right” pick at two.
3. Portland — Brandon Miller (Alabama)
The Blazers moved up the draft order in the lottery and find themselves at a familiar crossroads: Do they sell the pick to bring in more help for Damian Lillard? Or do they make the pick and trade Lillard for what’s sure to be a significant return? Of course, there’s the chance that they make the pick and wait until the trade deadline before really shaking things up, but I’ve been on the “trade Lillard” wagon for the better part of two seasons now so I hope for their fans sake they get what they can and start the rebuild around last year’s first-round pick Shaedon Sharpe, this pick and whatever they get back in a potential trade. Speaking of this pick, Portland really lucked out. I think there are three clear one-player tiers at the top of this class before everything gets more muddled after that. Miller was one of college basketball’s best this past year, averaging 19 points and 9 boards on the season and shot 49% from the floor and 38% from three in conference play. He’s not a complete defensive product yet but can very much hold his own and has enough versatility on that end to not get targeted heavily by opponents. I hope for Portland’s sake they don’t overthink this and take whichever player is left between Miller and Henderson. There’s just no way they can reconfigure this roster into a contender around Damian Lillard. The best time to start the rebuild was 18 months ago. The next best time is now.
4. Houston — Amen Thompson (Overtime Elite)
This is where the draft starts to get fun. Just a week ago I would have pegged Cam Whitmore at the 4 spot, but the winds have shifted in regard to James Harden’s rumored return to H-Town and now the prevailing sentiment appears to be that he will re-sign with Philadelphia after Doc Rivers was pink-slipped. If Harden isn’t coming back, then the Rockets need their point guard of the future more than another scoring wing. Although I’m a fan of Kevin Porter, he isn’t the long-term answer for Houston at the one. Enter Amen Thompson, who is the point guard of the much-ballyhooed twin duo hailing from Overtime Elite. While I’m not high on the competition the Thompson twins faced this past year, there’s no denying the raw talent and the career upside of both guys. Amen is long, lanky and athletic. He makes good reads in the halfcourt (when he got the chance with Overtime Elite) but it could be a steep learning curve after making the jump to the league. There’s work to be done with his mechanics but I have confidence that the kid will develop into a starting-caliber point guard on both ends of the floor under new head coach Ime Udoka. Houston has no delusions of competing for a title this season, so he’s got time to get his feet under him.
5. Detroit — Cam Whitmore (Villanova)
Whitmore has shot up draft boards over the last six weeks or so and for good reason. The 6-foot-6, 18-year-old wing has tremendous upside for a variety of reasons. He’s got elite athleticism and physicality, coming in around 230 pounds with a 40-inch vertical, Whitmore is ready to finish at the rim against NBA level bodies. He can spot up or pull up off the dribble from three and has a quick first step on his drives, using his body well to ward off defenders on his way to the cup. He loves himself some Cam Whitmore, which could end up being an issue if he’s not able to make reads at the NBA level and hit open teammates at the right time. But like Amen Thompson potentially going to Houston, the Pistons are not contending in 2024. He can get a feel for the next level this season and integrate into this young Pistons core group. If all goes according to plan, he can push Bojan Bogdanovic for a starting spot and potentially make Bogdanovic expendable at the trade deadline.
6. Orlando — Taylor Hendricks (UCF)
Man, it’s tough to figure out both what Orlando should do and will do Thursday. I’ve said for a while that I like the makeup of this Magic roster, but a reckoning is coming in terms of roster space. This team is deep at every position but really only has one future All-Star (no disrespect to Franz Wagner) in last year’s first overall pick Paolo Banchero. If they go backcourt, then surely they have to ship out one of Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs or Cole Anthony, right? If they look for a big then where does the sixth pick fit into a rotation of Banchero, Wagner, Wendell Carter and others? I’m not surprised if the Magic try to package this pick and the 11th pick in an attempt to move up into the two-three range, and I’m also not shocked if they aren’t able to do so. If they make this pick, I like Hendricks here, who has been the biggest riser throughout the draft process. He flew under the radar for a long while before finishing his freshman season at UCF strong, averaging 15 and 7. The Magic need shooting and defense, two things that Hendricks can provide early in his career. He certainly needs to improve his playmaking in the halfcourt and work on tightening his handle as he enters the league, but the upside swing here is one I think Orlando can afford to take.
7. Indiana — Jarace Walker (Houston)
Talk about a team that needs defensive players, the Pacers were one of the premier matchups on the DFS side of things and had us licking our chops whenever they were on a slate. Even with Myles Turner anchoring that defense the Pacers were still bottom five in defensive rating. Enter Jarace Walker, who I’m personally not as high on as the field appears to be, but when that happens on a player this high in the draft, I tend to think I’m the one who is wrong and missing something. He’s definitely not a bad option by any means, but I also question the relative upside compared to some of the other options left on the board. Walker can contribute right away defensively, he’s able to switch onto and stay in front of perimeter players as well as be a menacing help side rotator. Physically he’s an intriguing prospect, standing just 6-foot-7 but sporting a 7-foot-3 wingspan. I have serious doubts that he can be a productive player early in his career on the offensive end, but the Pacers aren’t hurting for scoring. If Walker is truly going to be a top-eight pick (right now he’s at even odds on DK to be a top-five selection), then Indy is where I’d like to see him land.
8. Washington — Anthony Black (Arkansas)
Washington is maybe the worst-run franchise in the league over the last three seasons. We don’t need to get into the Bradley Beal saga, but it’s fair to call attention to their recent draft history. Deni Avidja showed some flashes last season of being a real NBA rotation player. The jury is still out on Corey Kispert but my personal verdict is in, and it says he’s “nuh good.” Then you have the Johnny Davis debacle last season, the 10th overall pick who had more G-League appearances than NBA shot attempts through March 15. He didn’t look good once the Wizards flipped the tank switch and got him some minutes either. But Washington installed a new front office (finally) so if they’re turning the page, then so will I. They can start fresh at the point by taking Anthony Black at eight. He averaged 13/5/4 in his one year at Arkansas and scouts rave about his offensive IQ. He’s also a capable defensive guy and his solid 6’6 frame allows for some versatility on that end. I’m not surprised to see Ausar Thompson go here either, but I like the fit of Black more for what Washington needs. They cannot afford another top-10 swing and miss.
9. Utah — Ausar Thompson (Overtime Elite)
If Anthony Black falls to Utah I think they may scoop him up, but with Washington sniping him in this mock I think the Jazz will just take best available player at nine rather than worry about positional fit. Like his brother, Ausar is an elite athletic prospect who can end up being the definition of a draft night steal if he hits his ceiling. He can score in transition and the half court (although the outside shooting still leaves a lot to be desired) and should be able to defend well at the NBA level. He’s less of a point guard than Amen and may struggle at first to adjust to the league but once he does, he could surprise you with his vision. The Jazz have a ton of draft capital in the coming years and can afford to take a few big swings. At nine is it really that big of a risk? Utah fans should be happy to come away with either Thompson or Black.
10. Dallas — Dereck Lively (Duke)
Word is that the Mavericks, who successfully tanked the last week of the season and kept their first-round pick, are approaching Thursday night with the intent to trade this pick. We’ll approach this mock like every team is keeping their pick and put the article at the mercy of the trade gods. If the Mavs do make this pick with intent to keep the player then Lively makes sense to me. Lively was a bit of a late bloomer this year at Duke, but once he found his groove, he made a big impact. He may struggle to earn a significant role right away, but his defensive prowess will keep him from riding the pine on this Mavericks roster. He used his 7-foot-7 wingspan to average 2.5 blocks in 20 minutes per game last year and rim defense is something that was utterly non-existent for Dallas last season. Lively has also shot up draft boards and is now -120 on DK to be a top-10 pick.
11. Orlando (from Chicago) — Gradey Dick (Kansas)
I’ve seen Dick mocked (heh) at 11 in a few spots and I think it makes total sense. I’m not this high on him personally (and neither is Mike, who was on this in the betting markets early), but there’s no doubt about his shooting ability and for that reason he’s got a chance to be a lottery pick. The 6-foot-6 wing made 40.3 percent of his threes for the Jayhawks this season and wasn’t just hoisting the open ones, he was a high-volume shooter averaging six attempts per game. His offensive numbers put him in some pretty elite company but I (and apparently, a lot of front offices as well) have hesitations about the rest of his game. But if Orlando is going to keep both of their lottery picks, Dick is a sensible selection here given the needs of this Magic roster. Injecting his shooting ability into this rotation could play an actual role in helping this team make a play-in or even top six push in the East next season. Keep in mind, Orlando was 19-22 in the second half of the season. Extrapolate that out over a full season and you’re two games back of the final play-in spot last year. Add in their two lottery picks Thursday, and you could be seeing the Magic back in “meaningful” NBA games in April next spring.
12. Oklahoma City — Jordan Hawkins (Connecticut)
The Thunder thing to do here is take Bilal Coulibaly (and Sam Presti did fly overseas to watch him play two weeks ago), but I’m going to say Presti turns the “we’re trying” dial up to 11 and drafts for need rather than the traditional OKC “take the unproven freakish upside guy.” Oklahoma City needs shooting badly, and while he’s not a bruiser, they are adding to the frontcourt Chet Holmgren, who himself is a (much more proven) freakish upside guy. So, let’s grab a sharpshooter. Gradey Dick could be the pick here if he falls but the Magic just sniped him. Enter Jordan Hawkins, fresh off his national championship at UConn, and shooting the lights out along the way. Adding Hawkins would give the team another pure shooter alongside Isaiah Joe off the bench, a shooter on a rookie deal, which could be key to the roster build as the Thunder extend their star youngsters over the next few seasons. His ability to shoot on the move and off the bounce will have him NBA ready offensively right from the get-go. He’s significantly older than the other prospects we’ve mocked thus far at 21 years old, but OKC was the youngest team in the league last season, they hardly need to worry about youth. Adding a player through the draft who has played in not just big games, but “The” big game at the college level? Seems like a no brainer for a team that intends on playing in big games soon.
13. Toronto — Keyonte George (Baylor)
Toronto is likely needing a Fred VanVleet replacement this offseason and while they could go with a guy like Carson Wallace here, I think they opt for the more dual-threat offensive option in the freshman out of Baylor. George isn’t going to be your prototypical point guard, but he provides a little bit of everything that Toronto must replace at the position. He can handle the ball at a league-ready level and his touch in the paint and around the rim is solid. His pull-up game is also a plus for any team needing that immediate impact. He shot 33.8% from three, and while that’s not elite on the surface, the volume (6.9 attempts per game) and free throw success (80%) show the makings of a sharpshooting NBA combo guard. He doesn’t quite bring the defensive upside of a player like Wallace, but I think he’s a better fit for a retooling Raptors club.
14. New Orleans — Carson Wallace (Kentucky)
New Orleans is another team to watch in the trade rumor mill. They look like a very different team after the dust settles Thursday. But if they use pick 14, they should be excited to add Wallace to the franchise’s treasure trove of young assets. His defensive fundamentals and 6-foot-8 wingspan point his ceiling comparison toward ex-Pelican Jrue Holiday. While he was a passable spot-up shooter (34.6% on four attempts per game), he’ll need to develop that type of touch from distance off the bounce. Attacking the rim he’s physically ready, finishing strong with either hand and had a low turnover rate with the Wildcats. Pairing Wallace with a guy like Dyson Daniels sets the Pelicans up with the potential to have the most menacing defensive backcourt in the league a few years down the road.
15. Atlanta — Nick Smith Jr. (Arkansas)
These descriptions might get a bit shorter as we leave the lottery range, so don’t take it personally if your team gets a brief synopsis. The Hawks need offense and snagging Smith here is a high-upside swing that this team needs to take. His playmaking ability was on display in high school, and it made him a top-three recruit in his class. He took a step back in that regard at Arkansas, but there’s no doubt the kid can score the basketball. I’ve seen comps to Jamal Murray, and I think he’s maybe closer to a Jordan Poole that’s not going to make you pull your hair out with his decision making. He’s not a target on defense, which would be a deal breaker for a team whose best player is one.
16. Utah (from Minnesota) — Bilal Coulibaly (Metropolitans 92)
As we discussed earlier, Utah can afford to take high-upside swings at this point of their rebuild and they end up with Wemby’s teammate Coulibaly just outside of the lottery. A 6-foot-7 wing with a 7-3 wingspan, you can see why NBA front offices are salivating over the physical potential. He’s relatively unproven but did show year-over-year improvement in France, and that’s a promising sign for a young player who is still growing into his body.
17. Los Angeles Lakers — Kobe Bufkin (Michigan)
The Lakers need floor spacing, and Bufkin is a viable catch and shoot threat. Instead of targeting a purer shooter with this pick, I think LA could be drawn to the fact that Bufkin has shown the ability to be a valuable offensive piece with or without the ball. He’s also a solid defender, which could keep him in the rotation if he’s streaky offensively in his rookie campaign.
18. Miami — Jalen Hood-Schifino (Indiana)
The Heat could really use Hood-Schifino’s talents on both ends of the floor. He’s got a good understanding of how to control the pace of a game, especially in the halfcourt. The shooting leaves something to be desired but he’s too talented of a prospect for Miami to pass up in the high teens.
19. Golden State — Kris Murray (Iowa)
The twin brother of last year’s fourth overall pick Keegan Murray, Kris fits the bill of the type of player rumors say the Warriors are targeting this year. He’s 22 years old and a little bit more weathered than some of the recent Golden State first rounders. He took over for Keegan at Iowa and put up 20/8/2 in his stead. Not bad. Feels like a guy who could come in and grab a rotation role with a team that hasn’t gotten a reliable rotation guy out of the last seven teenagers they’ve picked.
20. Houston (from LA Clippers) — Brice Sensabaugh (Ohio State)
Using the pick acquired in the Eric Gordon trade I think Sensabaugh makes sense for the Rockets at 20. They already addressed guard with Amen Thompson above, and now they add some win depth with Sensabaugh who, similar to former Buckeye Malakai Branham, was not initially projected to leave after his freshman season. A knee injury ended his season early, but he’s cleared now and is a high-upside option for a still rebuilding Houston.
21. Brooklyn (from Phoenix) — Noah Clowney (Alabama)
These back-to-back Nets picks could potentially be used in a Damian Lillard trade package, but we’ll let the Wojs and Shams of the world talk to us about that. Clowney’s ceiling as a prospect could cause a team to take him in the teens, but I don’t see him getting past Brooklyn. At 6-foot-10 with a 7-3 wingspan, he’s an immediate defensive threat and actually a capable (but inefficient) three-point shooter. I’ve seen Wendell Carter comps, and I think skinnier (at this stage for the youngster, he doesn’t turn 19 until next month) Myles Turner is another good shout.
22. Brooklyn — Jaime Jaquez Jr. (UCLA)
After adding one of the youngest players in the draft in Clowney, the Nets go the other direction and get some help for the present. Jaquez has reportedly been impressing teams in pre-draft workouts, which is probably not a surprise to those who paid attention to his competitive nature and leadership exhibited during his four seasons at UCLA. He has the on and off the court profile to be a player that coach Jacque Vaughn falls in love with.
23.Portland (from New York) — Jett Howard (Michigan)
Howard is the son of Fab-Five legend, former NBA All-Star and current Michigan head coach Juwan Howard. He’s a knockdown three-point shooter both off the catch and on the move, as well as a solid playmaker. He’s got a pretty wide range of landing spots on Thursday, and we shouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in the teens given his upside, or even lower than this with some major defensive concerns that are well founded after his freshman season.
24. Sacramento — Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Marquette)
Sacramento is in need of versatile defenders, and Prosper fits the bill. He’s disruptive and flexible on that end of the floor. He’s also a three-year NCAA veteran and displayed a willingness to buy into his role on the team, drawing P.J. Tucker comparisons. His lack of shooting ability may be the hurdle to him cracking an NBA rotation his rookie season but there’s no question about his upside in this league.
25. Memphis — G.G. Jackson (South Carolina)
This one could really end up looking bad at the end of the night. Uncertainty swirls around Jackson, who was the top-ranked prospect in the 2023 high school class and is the youngest player in this draft class. He was far from a polished product this season at South Carolina and could use work on his shot selection. Sound familiar? The Grizzlies are expected to part ways with Dillon Brooks this offseason and while Jackson could end up being a bust, why not take the swing if you’re Memphis on a guy who could very well end up being a much-improved version of the headache you just got rid of.
26. Indiana (from Cleveland) — Colby Jones (Xavier)
A well-rounded player, Jones put up 15/6/4 at Xavier last season, shooting 50% from the floor and 38% from three. He’s not the youngest guy in this draft at 21-yers-old but he’s a capable two-way player that could help fill a potential future void on the wing left by a guy like Buddy Hield, who is sure to be on the move at some point.
27. Charlotte (from Denver) — Leonard Miller (G-League Ignite)
Charlotte takes Miller, pairing the two Ignite teammates together once again. The range on where Miller could be selected is pretty wide, he’s still growing into his body, so this is a low confidence pick at this point of the draft. He’s had workouts with lottery teams so the Hornets should feel pretty good about being able to pick up this type of upside in a draft position they dream of being in organically in future seasons.
28. Utah (from Philadelphia) — Brandin Podziemski (Santa Clara)
Another player who has improved their stock through the draft process. Podziemski was a standout at Santa Clara last season and is a deadeye shooter, making 43.8% of his threes. Questions about his defensive ability remain, but the offensive upside and willingness to take contact and crash the boards could see him selected in the high 20s.
29. Indiana (from Boston) — Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana)
TJD was a leader for the Hoosiers program beginning in his freshman season. Indiana won at least 20 games three times during his four-year career, and Jackson-Davis was the engine. He’s not a threat from the arc and an undersized big, but we’ve seen guys with his profile go on to have long successful NBA careers. The Pacers keep him in the area late in the first round.
30. LA Clippers (from Milwaukee) — Dariq Whitehead (Duke)
Injuries kept Whitehead from fully realizing his development this past season at Duke and in the draft process. He’s got shooting upside for days (42% from three this past year) but again, he struggled to show consistency attacking the rim and on the defensive end. The Clippers could go many different ways to close out the first round, and Whitehead would make some sense as a high upside wing that doesn’t have to play a role right away behind the two All-NBA caliber wings highlighting the LA starting lineup.
