NBA Game of the Day, 2/7: 76ers vs. Pistons

Unfortunately, there is only one national TV game in the NBA Friday, but the good news is that it should be the best game of the night. Most of the league is adjusting to the flurry of trades we’ve seen over the past few days. It takes time for players who were traded to pass their physicals, make the necessary trip to join their new team and learn how to play with their new squad. That leaves several teams short of players, which makes games difficult to handicap.

Luckily for us, two of the teams that didn’t make wholesale changes to their roster are featured in this matchup. It may not be a matchup of teams fighting for a top seed in their conference, but we do get to see two teams fighting for their chances to make the postseason. Here are my thoughts on the Philadelphia 76ers and the Detroit Pistons as well as my best bets for the night.

NBA Game of the Day: Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons

Current Line – 76ers -4, 228
My Projection – 76ers 113, Pistons 111
Key Injuries – Jaden Ivey and Jared McCain are out. Cade Cunningham and Guerschon Yabusele are questionable.

Philadelphia 76ers/Detroit Pistons Under 228

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Friday gives us two teams that are largely the same despite each making a few trades. Both organizations made moves on the fringes that were designed to lower their salary to avoid the tax or to acquire draft picks to use in the future. These are two teams sitting at opposite ends of the spectrum of expectations. The 76ers were expected to be a championship contender after compiling a roster full of great players. The Pistons were expected to be a plucky underdog that ultimately would end its season near the bottom of the standings. The Pistons are the 7 seed in the Eastern Conference and above the 76ers, who are 10^th in the conference. It will be interesting to see if that remains to be the case through the end of the season. Joel Embiid is healthy, Paul George is healthy, and they are finally able to join Tyrese Maxey, who is playing the best basketball of his young career. For the Pistons, everything is about Cade Cunningham, who continues to play better as the season progresses. This game should be an interesting matchup with each team’s stars capable of beating their defenders. I expect the game to be close, even closer than the spread, but I don’t see value in betting either side in this game.

Instead, I’m going to attack the total, which sits at 228, about four points higher than I would make. The 76ers have one of the slowest paces in the NBA, and it’s been even slower with Embiid on the floor. The pace for the 76ers drops just over a possession per 48 minutes with Joel Embiid playing. The Pistons are middle of the pack in pace, and they’ve been slowing down recently. I mention this because when it comes to total it’s all about pace. Offensive efficiency comes and goes, but a slow game will almost always be a low scoring one and I certainly don’t expect this game to be fast. As I mentioned, I do think that Cade Cunningham will be able to attack Philadelphia’s defense and Joel Embiid won’t be stopped by anyone on Detroit, but those plays should take time to develop and as the clock ticks, our chances of hitting the under increase. I make the total 224, so going under 228 is a must bet.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this event and there is one in particular I like a lot.

Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Rebounds

(+120, BetMGM)

Duren is one of the better rebounders in the league, and the Pistons will need him. Admittedly, he’s overmatched going against Joel Embiid, but he will be on the floor for most of the game. He should see plenty of minutes while Embiid is off the floor, and the 76ers are thin at center, which should leave plenty of rebounding chances for him. Our model at FTN projects Duren to grab 11.6 rebounds and would price this at deeper than -125, which means at +120 our expected value is almost 25%.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.