Best Bets Today – Feb. 19, 2025
FTN Staff
The NBA is back! OK, it technically returned Wednesday, but with nine games Thursday, this feels like the true restart of the season after the All-Star break. Each team has under 30 games left to climb into the playoffs, fall down to the bottom of the standings to get more balls for the draft lottery, or simply cement the position they’ve fought the past four months.
This final push to the end can be tricky for handicappers. We must be sure to take the time to understand each team’s and player’s motivations. Is it in their best interest to win or lose? Should players be focused on playing within their current system or working outside of it to show the league what their capable of before changing teams this offseason?
There’s a lot for us to unpack, but luckily there is one game Thursday that seems pretty straightforward. The Phoenix Suns visit the San Antonio Spurs as the nightcap on this TNT Thursday. Here are my thoughts on the game and my best bets.
NBA Game of the Day: Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
Current Line – Suns -2.5, 238.5
My Projection – Suns 118, Spurs 117
Key Injuries – Victor Wembanyama is out.
Phoenix Suns/San Antonio Spurs Under 238.5
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook/Caesars)
This is a very sad day for the Spurs. Victor Wembanyama, savior of the franchise and the most exciting prospect in the league, was diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis. That means he has a blood clot in his right shoulder. That will keep him out for the rest of the season and will likely be a problem for him throughout his career. Luckily the problem was caught early before it can become an embolism, and it may be treatable, but it is likely to limit his potential. It casts a dark pall over the Spurs and their chances for success this season. This makes it tough to handicap the Spurs because we have little to no data on how they look with De’Aaron Fox and without Wembanyama. This news could be a distraction that keeps the team from focusing or maybe it could galvanize the squad spurring them to play one of their best games of the year. It’s difficult to know how Thursday and the rest of the season will play out for San Antonio.
The Suns began their malaise before the All-Star break. They lost seven of their last nine games before the break. Devin Booker missed a few of those games, but overall the team has been healthy when losing. Kevin Durant was part of trade rumors and appears to be on his way out of town this offseason. That creates a lot of distraction for the Suns. Bradley Beal seems to get worse with each passing week. Coach Mike Budenholzer adjusted the lineup and that seemed to help for a few games, but things still look bad, just in a different way. They have fallen all the way to 11th in the Western Conference, which puts them out of the Play-In Tournament and postseason contention. Maybe the break allowed the team to get healthy and build cohesiveness with time to practice, but I don’t expect much to change, and I’m certainly not betting on it.
So, I can’t tell you in good faith which side to bet in this game, but I do feel strongly that the total is too high. Wembanyama was expected to miss this game already, and the market adjusted the total up to over 238 points. The Spurs defense gets worse without their best player available by about two points per 100 possessions. That means more points, but the impact is eclipsed by the teams drop in offensive efficiency. The offense gets over four points worse per 100 possessions without Wembanyama. That tells me that the market has made the incorrect adjustment by pushing this total up so high. Our model at FTN as well as my own model set this total at 235, well below the current number. The only concern is the pace of the game which might be too high, but I struggle to see how both of these teams can be efficient enough to score a combined 239 points. Let’s bet the under.
Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this game and there is one in particular I like a lot.
Jeremy Sochan Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds
(-125, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Without Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan will step into a much larger role. He’s likely to start at center despite being only 6-foot-8, which means plenty of rebounds for him to grab and more chances for him to score. Admittedly, he doesn’t shoot the ball very much, even in games without Wemby, but he’s been very efficient with his attempts. Sochan is a great rebounder who uses his athleticism and furious motivation to attack the boards. Our model projects him to score 11.2 points and grab 7.9 rebounds in 28 minutes. That gives him a combined 19.1 and I see even more upside because he should clear 30 minutes. I like all of his overs, but this is the best choice.
You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.
