Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week I will try to identify value in the betting markets based on how I see each fight playing out. Because of the subjective nature of MMA, there are times we can point out large discrepancies in how the public is betting certain fighters relative to what is the most likely outcome of that fight. I reference FanDuel sportsbook betting lines, but I encourage you all to shop around to get the most value. Here are the bets I like the most for UFC 251.
Martin Day by decision +130 (1x to win 1.3x)
I mentioned in my DraftKings breakdown all the reasons that I favor Day in this matchup. He is the much better striker and has good enough takedown defense to keep this one standing for the majority of the fight. He lands a ton of kicks at range and should have a speed advantage on the feet as well. He is not really known as a knockout fighter, as his only three KO victories came against low-level regional talent. Additionally, his opponent, Davey Grant, has been durable, as he has yet to be knocked out in his career. We have already seen some line movement in favor of Day, as his decision prop has dropped from +145 to +130, but because I think it should be the favorite, I would bet it down to even money.
Zaleski Dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov – Will the fight go the distance? No -108 (2x to win 1.85x)
In this matchup, we have two exciting fighters who could stop the fight at any moment. Zaleski Dos Santos has had just one of his last five fights go the distance, and Muslim Salikhov has only fought to the final bell twice in his 18 professional fights. We have also seen Dos Santos get clipped a few times over his last few fights and both guys' fighting styles make it likely that one of them is going to sleep on Saturday. I think we see this line increase by fight night.
Max Holloway money line +174 (1x to win 1.74x)
This is simply a case of recency bias, as the public has overreacted to the result of the first Holloway-Volkanovski fight. I went into more detail in the DraftKings breakdown, but I really think Volkanovski just fought an excellent gameplan, and Holloway was not ready for it the first time around. I do not expect that to be the case this week and because I think this fight is closer to a pick-em, there is plenty of value in taking the former champ in Holloway.
Kamaru Usman money line -300 (3x to win 1x) Usman by submission +1200 (.5x to win 6x)
As excited as I am for this matchup, I would be shocked to see Masvidal get the upset here. Usman’s stand up has been improving over his last few fights and he showed some of that off against Colby Covington his last time out. Additionally, he has an iron chin and has never been knocked out in his career. Because that is the only path to victory that I see for Masvidal, and it is highly unlikely, I feel confident backing Usman in this matchup. Lastly, Usman is a black belt in BJJ and although Masvidal has good submission defense, I think Usman will be able to wear him down and break him with the constant takedowns and pressure. I understand it is considered a long shot, but I think it happens more often than a 12-to-1 line suggests.
