Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The UFC is headed to Yas Island in Abu Dhabi this week for UFC 251. This fight card is easily the best of the year and arguably the strongest card in UFC history from top to bottom. We have three title fights on the line, and the main event is the highly anticipated Kamaru Usman versus Jorge Masvidal – a fight that many people did not think would happen until Gilbert Burns was forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test. Along with the many exciting bouts this week, DraftKings is offering huge prize pools, including the millionaire maker, where $1,000,000 going to first place. As with all UFC fight cards, I do my best to identify potential DraftKings targets based on the most likely outcome for each fight.
$8,500 Martin Day vs $7,700 Davey Grant
Martin Day comes in as a -170 favorite and the comeback on Davey Grant is +150. Grant is coming off a split-decision win against Grigory Popov back in November. Day is coming off a split-decision loss against Pingyuan Liu in November of 2018, where he outstruck him in every round and yet somehow lost the fight. Day is a fourth-degree black belt in Taekwondo and an active striker, as he landed 100 significant strikes in his UFC debut. On the feet, I give him a clear advantage in this matchup as the more technical striker with a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage who will be landing early and often with his kicks and body shots.
Grant has won eight of his 11 professional victories by way of submission. However, all four of his losses have come by submission and has yet to win by submission at the UFC level. In his last fight against Popov, he came in with a wrestling heavy gameplan, which led to six takedowns in that fight. I see him as the stronger wrestler in this matchup, but Day defends takedowns well, as he stuffed all four attempts by Liu. Even if Grant lands a takedown or two, I have seen enough of Day on the mat to believe he can defend submissions and work back to his feet. Because I see that as the most likely outcome, the pick is Day by decision and at $8,500 on DraftKings, he is a high-floor play this week.
$8,000 Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs $8,200 Muslim Salikhov
This fight is a pick ’em on most books, but there are some slight odds value on Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos in terms of the price on DraftKings. Dos Santos is coming off a decision win against Alexey Kunchenko back in March and has now won eight of 10 UFC bouts. Muslim Salikhov is coming off a decision win against Laureano Staropoli last October and is now on a three-fight win streak. Both fighters have legitimate knockout power, which makes for a very exciting matchup, especially for an early preliminary fight. Salikhov has won 12 of his 16 professional fights by way of knockout and four of those have come by some form of a spinning kick.
Dos Santos is a black belt in BJJ and has a strong grappling advantage, but I doubt we see this one hit the mat at all. I expect Dos Santos to be the more active striker, as Salikhov is usually more patient when picking his spots. With that being said, I expect both fighters to wing bombs early and often until someone drops. For that reason, I favor Salikhov as the more durable fighter, as he has yet to be knocked out in his career and seems to have a slight power advantage as well.
The official pick is Salikhov by knockout, but this is a fight where you want to have exposure to both sides as the winner should score very well in the midrange on DraftKings. I will probably have one of these fighters in every lineup this week, as I expect the winner to be on the optimal lineup.
$7,900 Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin
This was originally supposed to be Alexander Romanov's fight but he pulled out and will be replaced by Maxim Grishin. I was confident in Tybura against Romanov, but Grishin presents a few more problems for Tybura than Romanov did. For starters, Grishin is a powerful striker with 15 of his 30 professional wins coming by knockout. Additionally, unlike Romanov, he has fought in some quality promotions outsides of the UFC and has a notable win over Alexander Volkov. His last loss came 10 fights ago against current UFC light heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev back in 2016.
In terms of the matchup, it is safe to say that Tybura holds a wrestling and grappling advantage. He is a black belt in BJJ and if he can get takedowns, then it is possible he threatens with a submission. However, from what I have seen, Grishin has solid takedown defense and if he is able to stuff the takedowns and turn this into a boxing match, he should hold a significant power advantage on the feet.
Tybura’s last three losses have all come by knockout and if he is unsuccessful in getting this fight to the ground, then I think this makes it four losses by knockout. I would feel more confident in Grishin if he were not moving up a weight class, but I still think Grishin by knockout is the most likely outcome. Grishin has not been added to the DraftKings player pool yet, but I expect them to slide him in Romanov’s place at $8300. If he does win by KO, as I think he will, then he should score very well for a mid-range fighter.
$8,700 Raulian Paiva vs $7,500 Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Raulian Paiva comes in as a -185 favorite and the comeback on Zhalgas Zhumagulov is +160. Paiva is coming off a KO victory against Mark De La Rosa back in February, which was his first win in the UFC. I have previously made the case for Paiva that if he did not have bad luck, he would likely be on a 15-fight win streak and 3-0 in the UFC. The reason is is that he was robbed by the judges against Kai Kara-France and then had a doctor stoppage loss against Rogerio Bontorin in a fight that he was clearly winning up to that point. He is an exciting striker and has excellent takedown defense, which I expect to be tested in this matchup.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov is making his UFC debut and is on a four-fight win streak, all of which coming by way of decision. While the fight plays out on the feet, I could see Zhumagulov having some brief moments but overall, I think he is outclassed in this matchup. Paiva’s striking advantage and experience will pay off here, and I think he gets the job done. At $8,700 on DraftKings, he is a bit too expensive because he likely needs a finish to pay off that salary. A finish is possible, but there are stronger plays relative to his price. Paiva by decision is the official pick.
$9,200 Karol Rosa vs $7,000 Vanessa Melo
Karol Rosa comes in as a -210 favorite and the comeback on Vanessa Melo is +175. Rosa is coming off a decision win in her UFC debut last November. She is Jessica Andrade's training partner and a black belt in BJJ – although she did not display her grappling skills in her debut. She is a solid striker who will have a clear advantage on the feet in power and volume. She landed an absurd 171 significant strikes in her UFC debut and was able to keep a high pace over the course of 15 minutes.
Vanessa Melo is simply outmatched in every area of this fight. Melo has poor grappling skills and has been outstruck at nearly a two-to-one disadvantage through her two UFC bouts. I see Rosa rolling in this matchup. She is priced at $9,200 on DraftKings, which makes me think she could be lower owned than she should be in this matchup. She has a high floor because of the pace and domination that I expect to see, but I also think she is a good bet to finish as well. Rosa by decision is the official pick.
$8,800 Leonardo Santos vs $7,400 Roman Bogatov
Leonardo Santos comes in as a -185 favorite and the comeback on UFC newcomer Roman Bogatov is +160. Santos is 40 years old and has a long history of winning, as he has yet to lose in seven UFC bouts. He is a grappling world champion seven times over and a fourth-degree black belt in BJJ. He was the winner of TUF 2 Brazil and has notable wins over Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin. Last year, he returned to the octagon after a three-year layoff and knocked out Stevie Ray in the very first round. In this matchup, he will be facing another grappler in Roman Bogatov.
Bogatov is the M-1 lightweight champion and is undefeated professionally with five of his 10 wins coming by way of submission. However, it is tough to bet on a submission grappler when he is facing a much better submission grappler. Santos is the better grappler, has years of UFC experience and is the better striker in this matchup as well. Santos' age is concerning and Bogatov should have a significant wrestling advantage that I expect him to use. It is possible we see Bogatov land takedowns and avoid a submission and maybe even threaten Santos on the mat. Another concern with Santos is that he throws low volume on the feet so if he does not get the stoppage, then he is not going to score well at all, making him a riskier play in the upper $8,000 range on DraftKings.
For those reasons, I like taking a shot on the underdog here in Bogatov as a cheap option with high upside. Bogatov by decision is the official pick.
$8,600 Makwan Amirkhani vs $7,600 Danny Henry
Mr. Finland, Makwan Amirkhani, comes in as a -200 favorite and Danny “The Hatchet” Henry is the underdog at +175. Amirkhani is coming off a KO loss to Shane Burgos, but it was really just due to exhaustion, as he gassed out after winning the first round. He is a strong wrestler, as he lands nearly three and a half takedowns per 15 minutes and 10 of his 15 professional wins have come by way of submission. Henry may have an advantage on the feet simply because he is willing to throw more volume. That, along with his endurance, are really the only advantages for Henry in this matchup.
I see Amirkhani as the much better wrestler and grappler, and that is how I see this one playing out, especially early in the fight. The longer this fight goes the more I could see Henry starting to take over in the fight. However, it is likely he will already be down two rounds at that point and chasing a finish. Amirkhani is tough to trust with his cardio always in question, but he is the better fighter here by a substantial margin, making it tough to bet against him.
Amirkhani is live for a submission early but even without it, I think he wins the first two rounds convincingly and just needs to survive the third. At his price on DraftKings, there are stronger plays right in that same range so unless he does get the submission, he likely will not score enough to be optimal. Amirkhani by decision is the official pick.
$8,400 Volkan Oezdemir vs $7,800 Jiri Prochazka
Volkan Oezdemir comes in as a -150 favorite and the comeback on Jiri Prochazka is +130. The odds on this fight ending early are -190, so Vegas is expecting a finish here, and I am too. Oezdemir is coming off a split-decision victory over exciting prospect Aleksandar Rakic in December. His only losses in the UFC came against Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes. He has legitimate fight-stopping power and maintains a high pace for this division, as he lands nearly five significant strikes per minute.
Prochazka was the light heavyweight champion over in Rizin and is making his UFC debut here. Prochazka is known as a KO specialist with 23 of his 26 wins coming by KO, and he comes into this matchup on a 10-fight win streak. Like Oezdemir, he also has legitimate knockout power and that alone makes him a live underdog in most matchups. However, this is going to be the toughest competition of his career, and we have seen repeatedly over the last few months what happens when highly touted prospects are given a reality check when facing a step up in competition. Prochazka is not great defensively and keeps his hands low at range, which will be a problem against the powerful Oezdemir.
Oezdemir is not just a UFC caliber opponent, but he is a good light heavyweight who has already fought for the belt in this division. His only losses are coming against the best that this division has to offer, and Prochazka is simply not at that level yet. I expect this fight to be exciting right from the jump with both fighters looking for the finish. I favor Oezdemir as the more experienced and technical striker, and he should get the job done in this matchup. Oezdemir by knockout is the official pick. He is another fighter in the mid-range who has a good chance to score well and contend for the optimal lineup.
$9,500 Amanda Ribas vs $6,700 Paige VanZant
My girl Amanda Ribas comes in as the heaviest favorite on the card at -900 while the comeback on Paige VanZant +600. Ribas is 3-0 in the UFC and has cruised through all her opponents. She is simply better than PVZ in every area of this fight. Ribas is a good boxer and lands with more volume than Paige. Expect her to have a speed and power advantage as well. Additionally, she is a black belt in Judo and has landed at least one takedown in all her UFC fights. PVZ defends takedowns at an abysmal 35% rate. When the fight does hit the mat, Ribas is a high-level submission grappler and holds a black belt in BJJ. Ribas has passed guard three times against Emily Whitmire and four times against Randa Markos. The only fight where she was unable to advance position on the mat was against Mackenzie Dern, another high-level submission grappler.
Against Paige, I see Ribas having the advantages on the feet, in the wrestling and grappling as well. The line is very wide, but I cannot see a scenario where Paige wins this fight. Ribas by submission is the official pick, but I could also see her dominating a decision or getting a stoppage via ground and pound. Ribas is the most expensive fighter on DraftKings and has a good chance to finish. If others are not going to want to pay up for her, then I think we could get an ownership discount, making her a nice leverage play in the millionaire maker.
$9,000 Rose Namajunas vs $7,200 Jessica Andrade
"Thug" Rose Namajunas comes in as a -190 favorite and the comeback on Jessica Andrade is +165. These two fought last May, which resulted in Andrade winning by TKO via body slam in Round 2. However, Namajunas looked excellent right from the first bell and was dominating that fight right up until she was slammed on her head and knocked out.
That was the last fight for "Thug" Rose, and she took a year off to develop her love for fighting once again. That is a concern, as it is difficult not to question the mental toughness based on previous comments that she has made about retiring and life outside of fighting. She even made a comment after losing that it was “relieving” to give up the belt. That could be nothing, but it does not inspire confidence in backing a fighter who may not be fully committed.
All those things aside, she is the better mixed martial artist in this matchup. She is much faster in the striking department and was putting on a clinic in that first fight and nearly ended it in the first round after scoring a knockdown. Aside from just the speed advantage, she will have a three-inch reach advantage as well. When it comes to the wrestling, I lean Andrade as the stronger wrestler and Rose only defends takedowns at a 46% rate, but that is partially due to her confidence in her grappling, as she is a brown belt in BJJ. Andrade is a BJJ black belt, but I think Rose is the better submission grappler. The biggest advantage for Andrade is her power. She needs to close the distance and get inside because if she stands at range, then Rose is going to pick her apart just as she did in their first matchup.
Because I think Rose is the better well-rounded fighter and has a clear advantage in multiple departments, this is her fight to lose. Additionally, outside of the fluky KO slam in their last matchup, she is the more durable fighter as well, as Andrade has now been knocked out three times coming off a KO loss to Weili Zhang last August. Rose by KO is the official pick and she is one of many strong plays in the $9k range on DraftKings. I will also have a decent amount of exposure to Andrade because she is the type of underdog where if she wins, we know she will score extremely well for her price.
$9,300 Petr Yan vs $6,900 Jose Aldo
Petr Yan comes in as a -235 favorite and the comeback on Jose Aldo is +195. Yan is coming off a KO victory over Urijah Faber back in December. He has yet to lose in the UFC and now gets his first crack at a title shot. On the other side of the matchup, we have Aldo. There is no doubting that Aldo is a legend in the fight game and with that comes the legitimate respect he deserves. I have said multiple times how he should not get a title shot at 135 pounds considering he is 0-1 in this division and currently on a two-fight losing skid.
In any event, it is tough to see Yan losing this fight outside of getting knocked out early. Yan is hittable and has been stunned at times in all three of his last fights. I do not see him as this indestructible force that the rest of the world seems to, but he is talented and should cruise in this matchup. He lands with much more volume than Aldo and arguably has just as much, if not more, power. He is also the better wrestler, but Aldo has excellent takedown defense, and I would be shocked to see this fight go to the ground.
In what I expect to be primarily a boxing match, I favor Yan pretty heavily. The only real chance I see Aldo having is if he catches him with something early in the fight. For that reason, Aldo is in the mix as another cheap underdog with high upside, but the official pick is Yan by KO. I expect it to come in the later rounds, as he is going to be the much fresher fighter. On DraftKings, he is another solid option, but the price means you are going to have to make some decisions in that range.
$7,100 Max Holloway vs $9,100 Alexander Volkanovski
The current 145-pound champion Alexander Volkanovski comes in as the -240 favorite and the underdog Max Holloway is +200. The first time these two fought, it was so good that Dana White admitted that he would be open to an immediate rematch. Both fighters had moments but credit to Volkanovski, as he fought with an excellent gameplan to dethrone Holloway.
His cardio looked great, as he kept up a high pace the entire fight and only started to fade toward the end of the fifth round. Volkanovski's leg kicks were the difference-maker in that fight, and I expect Holloway to make it a point not to eat as many of those early in this fight. When Holloway was able to stay orthodox, he had a clear striking advantage and started to take over late in the fight despite being outstruck on the scorecards. If Holloway has a plan for those leg kicks, then I still see him as the better striker and should win this fight, which makes him an obvious value at only $7,100 on DraftKings.
He has one of the highest floors because even if he loses, it is likely by decision, and he lands in such high volume that stacking this fight is a legitimate strategy this week. The only issue that I have with Max this week is that I expect him to be the heaviest owned underdog on the slate because he is such an obvious value. At $7,100, he is likely to meet value even in a loss and because I see this fight as more of a pick-em, he will be one of my heaviest owned fighters as well. Holloway by decision is the official pick.
$8,900 Kamaru Usman vs $7,300 Jorge Masvidal
This was originally supposed to be Gilbert Burns' title shot but due to a positive COVID-19 test, he was forced to withdraw. Luckily, Jorge Masvidal was ready to step in as a short-notice replacement. Usman is coming off the controversial KO victory over Colby Covington in December. He is 11-0 in the UFC with wins over Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, RDA and Tyron Woodley prior to that Covington win.
Masvidal is coming in on three straight KO victories and, most recently, the BMF title victory over Nate Diaz. I am a big fan of Masvidal, but this is a very difficult matchup for him. Usman is one of the best wrestlers in the division and his striking has been improving as well. He has an excellent chin as well and showed that off in his last war with Colby Covington.
Unfortunately, an unlikely KO is the only way I see Masvidal winning this fight, as I cannot see him winning rounds. Masvidal should have a slight advantage in the striking department, but his takedown defense is not strong enough over the course of 25 minutes to stuff takedowns from a wrestler with the Usman's pedigree, and that is what I see as being his biggest hurdle in this matchup. Usman should be able to land takedowns and control Masvidal on the mat with the possibility of finishing him once it gets there. Usman is a black belt in BJJ and has good top control, so I would be surprised if Masvidal is able to work back to his feet repeatedly each round. Usman by submission is the official pick and he is one of the strongest plays of the slate this week.
