Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (9/4)

The Main Event is an Ogre

Welcome to my weekly NFBC Main Event recap article. Each week, I’ll dig into the top free agents added in this premier fantasy baseball contest, letting you know who was added in the most leagues, how much money was spent and more. In addition, we’ll revisit the top pickups from three weeks ago and even scan the Main Event overall standings to see who’s at the top. 

MLB Counter = 84.5% of the season complete

Why is the Main Event a monster you ask? Well, in order to win the overall NFBC Main Event among 795 teams, a fantasy manager has to beat the best of the best. It is difficult to end up in a cashing position in a league out of 15 teams, which requires a top-three finish. It is harder still to win a NFBC Main Event league championship. But at the top of the pyramid is the true ogre – to win an overall Main Event title. Here are the top five contenders for the 2023 crown:

Remember, the maximum number of points a fantasy manager could earn in any category is 795, and a score of 795 represents the top overall score in that category in the Main Event. In the chart above, I have shaded the category scores of 700 points (88% of the possible points) or higher, and among these top-five teams, there are only 18 scores below 700 (out of 50).

• Brian Slack and Dylan White have 700 points in 8 of 10 categories and are very close to first overall in Runs, ERA and WHIP. Only Home Runs and Steals are presenting any difficulty at all.
• Bob Catsiroumpas has 6 of 10 categories above 700 and is near the very top in WHIP – he’s lagging a bit in AVG and Wins.
• John Pausma has 5 of 10 at 700 or more, with his best category in Wins – he’s having a little difficulty in AVG.
• Clark Olson is highly consistent – 7 of 10 categories above 700 – and his top category is stolen bases. Interestingly, he has a low WHIP score despite having no problem in ERA.
• Finally, Rey Diaz has 6 of 10 above 700 and is fantastic in Runs, K’s and ERA – his issue is stolen bases, and to a lesser extent AVG.

Don’t Be Annoyed

If you find yourself getting annoyed by teams just ahead of you in the standings, remember when Shrek says, “It’s just a donkey.” In fantasy baseball terms, that means it’s just a fellow fantasy owner doing the best he/she can, just like you. Compete and do your best to win, but let’s hand out congratulations in the end. After all, we’re all the same species (donkeys?).

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: The Martian

The No. 1 pickup this week was the man from another planet, Jasson Domínguez of the Yankees. Dominguez impressed by hitting a home run on his first major league swing, off Justin Verlander no less. This (and his prospect pedigree) caused him to be added in all 53 Main Event leagues on Sunday as owners scramble toward the finish line.

The 10 widest acquisitions are in the chart below, and in addition to Dominguez, they also feature star prospect Ronny Mauricio of the New York Mets. Mauricio hit a 117-mph double in his debut, so he is also highly capable of providing an offensive spark. The third-highest pickup was a veteran, Michael Brantley, who is now back for the Astros after being out since the middle of the 2022 season. Next on the list is Emmet Sheehan, who might be in the Dodger rotation (or maybe it is Ryan Pepiot?). Sheehan would have been picked up in more than 24 leagues if owners knew the Dodgers were going to start him. The rest of the top-10 free-agent pickups are highlighted by three hot hitters (Hunter Goodman, DJ Stewart, Davis Schneider) and three starting pitchers, Michael King, Andre Jackson and Darius Vines (who unfortunately was sent back to AAA).

The Century Club

In the 24th FAAB run (see below), there were no successful $200+ bids and no successful $100+ bids for the first time this season. As you can see below, we’ve had 540 total winning bids over $200 and 1,368 total $100+ winning bids, and this looks like it will be the final tally.

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bid of the week? The highest winning bid was for DJ Stewart with a winning bid of $77. Although that crushed the $2 runner-up amount, I’m feeling like this isn’t really a WOW bid. I think we’re into “that was pretty high” bid territory. Needless to say, this was the lowest top bid of the season.

• 3/26: Darick Hall $221
• 4/2: Dany Jiménez $363
• 4/9 Oscar Colás $372
• 4/16 Taj Bradley $557
• 4/23 José Alvarado $399
• 4/30 Tanner Bibee $504
• 5/7 Bryce Miller $468
• 5/14 Eury Pérez $415
• 5/21 Bobby Miller $329
• 5/28 Bobby Miller $412
• 6/4 Royce Lewis $429
• 6/11 Elly De La Cruz $650
• 6/18 Emmet Sheehan $178
• 6/25 Gavin Williams $228 (2)
• 7/2 Jordan Westburg $177
• 7/9 Colton Cowser $225
• 7/16 Aroldis Chapman $316
• 7/23 Christian Encarnacion-Strand $283
• 7/30 Giovanny Gallegos $155
• 8/6 Adrian Houser and Endy Rodríguez $150 each
• 8/13 Trevor Story $164
• 8/20 Hyun Jin Ryu $119
• 8/27 Jordan Wicks $356
• 9/3 DJ Stewart $77

FAAB Summary

In the first 24 FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 34,831 winning bids (so each Main Event team has won 43.8 bids on average YTD – 1.83 per week). The activity level did finally drop from the 1,200-1,300 area to below 1,100 winning bids, the lowest of the year except for Week 10. This week there were 1,083 winning bids (1.36 per team). With just three FAABs and four weeks to go in the season, the teams in the bottom third of the standings probably are not as active. In terms of spending, owners have now parted with, on average, $944 of their $1,000 allocation. Comparing that to the last two years at the 24-week mark, that’s still more than the $931 spent in 2022 and the $926 spent two years ago. 

Spending This Week: Roughly $7.50 per Team

You can see in the chart below (the average amount spent per team column) that there was a huge drop in weekly spending in Week 13 – from $65 spent per team to $28. Since then, it has been at a lower ebb, as from Weeks 15-21 it has ranged from $11.75 to $21.97. But in Week 22, we finally dropped below double-digits per team ($9.92), and last week it fell to $9.24. With 27 FAAB periods and $944 spent in 24 weeks, owners who have an average amount left ($56) theoretically have $18.67 per week for all their winning bids over the final three weeks of the campaign. But remember, the last two years, an average of $58 went unspent because of teams that fell out of their league races. I estimate that this year there really is only about $21 per active team remaining or $7 per week, but we will see.

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. In the chart below, you can see the results from the 21st FAAB period. Seattle’s Emerson Hancock leads us off and only was able to provide seven innings before his shoulder caused him to be shut down. Sign. That’s the problem with young pitchers, I suppose…they can break your heart. But for the emperor, he’s a clear thumbs down. Trevor Story, however, is a veteran. So how did that go? Well, Trevor has supplied a low batting average with one homer and two steals, so this free-agent acquisition didn’t help our intrepid fantasy owners either. Thumbs down. Our second rookie pitcher, Matthew Liberatore, didn’t work as well. He lasted only 4.1 innings before being sent down. This isn’t going well, is it? Finally, there is Javier Assad. He has been extremely solid in innings (26.1), wins (1), strikeouts (22) and ratios (1.71/0.99). Assad is an easy thumbs up and somewhat saved the August 13 FAAB period.

This now gives us 37 thumbs up for the season (44%), 34 down (40%) and 13 pushes (16%). That’s better than 2022, which registered a 39% thumbs up on these weekly pickups, and well ahead of 2021 (24%). It still looks like this will be the best thumbs up year out of the last three…

Overall Leaderboard: Brian Slack has layers!

I thought I would give you all a visual of Brian Slack as he explains how he plans to manage his team for the final four weeks of the Main Event (see picture below). It seems that acknowledging you have depth is important for fantasy baseball. He’s taken over the overall Main Event from famed competitor John Pausma and is planning for his similarity to an onion to carry him to the title. Brian, you’re a deep, complex individual!!

However, now in second place is Bob Catsiroumpas. He has steadily moved up (last week he was fourth) and has designs on the top spot. Bob says he is a simple guy, not like Brian, and has one goal, to win the NFBC Main Event. Sounds simple to me! In third place is John Pausma, and he is none too happy about it. He led for five weeks and is chalking up this slip to third place as a one-week aberration. John’s exact quote was “It’s just not a problem, I have a spreadsheet that will work this out.” OK John, sounds good! Clark Olson is a guy I feel has the right mentality to win the overall, cool and calm. Clark boasts the 4th-, 17th- and 32nd-ranked Main Event teams, which is pretty amazing. Say Hey Rey Diaz dropped back just a bit from third to fifth and is just 360 points out of first. Clearly he has a chance.

My Favorite Martin (Gregg Martin) remains in sixth, and Bill (I don’t make any gaffes) Gaffney is now seventh. Brandon (the one true) King is in eighth, jumping up from 11th (so named because he was the first to pass John Pausma in a league this season), and Brandon claims the throne is truly his. Then in ninth is no, it can’t be, yes, it is … it’s Philippe Dussault, charging his way into the top 10. I just can’t take this! Is he one of those guys who just loves odd-numbered years? Will he win in 2025 also? Why am I writing so many questions?

David Miller dropped back from seventh to 10th but still is in the hunt. Similarly, Michael Mager, who led the overall earlier in the season, is sitting calmly in 11th. Nice work, Mike! Steve Maier is 12th (although he wishes it was still May-ier when he was leading overall), and 736.5 points from the top spot we find the lurker, Jason Anthony, doing an excellent job of lurking in 13th place (essentially tied with my auction nemesis, the quiet assassin Steven Weimer). 

A couple of other noteworthy contenders to me are the opera enthusiasts Robert Mirshak and Ian Kahn in 15th (up from 23rd last week), Richard Briskin in 19th (still handling himself with aplomb I must say), the unassuming Scott Gilbert in 24th, Kyle (on the Brink) Brinkmann in 25th and the great Pull Hitter himself in 30th (Robert DiPietro).

Champions Update

I like to keep tabs on our recent Overall Champions, because they have proven their mettle over long, difficult campaigns and therefore must be threats to do so again.

Philippe Dussault: As mentioned above, Philippe is amazingly in ninth overall after having been as far back as 275th place (out of 795 total). Come on Phil! This is a comeback for the ages!

Robert Cramutola: Bob has made a nice move. He was 160th three weeks ago, then 135th then 110th place last week. Do we have another former champ charge to the top? Sadly, it doesn’t seem like it, as he has drifted back to 142nd. There’s still time, but I’d say Bob has to start now!

League of Legends

Shout-Outs

John Pausma is still cashing in four Main Event leagues, but he has company. Danny Bronski has two firsts, one second place and one third – outstanding! Glenn Schroter is also second in two Main Event leagues and third in two others, while Griffin Benger has third place apparently figured out. He has four third-place positions! 

With three cashing spots, we find the irrepressible Clark Olson (2 first; 1 second), the unwavering Michael Mager (1 first, 2 third), the layered Brian Slack (1 first, 2 third), the unflinching Douglas Gruber (2 second, 1 third) and finally the pitching-rich Dalton Del Don (1 second, 2 third). Those nine fantasy players have eight first-place positions, nine second-place and 14 third-place positions. Excellent job gentlemen!

Fourteen other players are in two cashing spots, with Philippe Dussault (there’s that man again), Gregg Martin and Eric Albright each winning two leagues. In fact, these 23 Main Event fantasy owners below have a combined 21 first-place positions (40%) and 59 cashing spots (37% of the 159 total available). There’s still four weeks to go, of course, but right now the story of the season in the Main Event is Pausma, Bronski, Schroter and Benger. But I recommend taking the same attitude as the donkey and singing, “I’m a believer!”

Good luck to all the participants in the Main Event during Week 25!