Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event

The last week of May has arrived, with those critical summer months of the fantasy baseball season coming fast. Below you’ll find insight into the minds of NFBC managers as the season pushes onward.

IS BATTING AVERAGE?

MLB COUNTER = 28.9% of the season complete

I certainly wish that I could change the trend of my fantasy teams’ batting average just by looking at it like in the illustration above. But in fantasy, you draft players thinking they have a CHANCE to do well in this category, but sometimes these players don’t produce the numbers as hoped. Before the season started, we just didn’t know if the new MLB rules – particularly the new shift rules – would really increase batting average a great deal. Now that we have about 29% of the season in the books, though, we can see that batting average is significantly higher at .248 (see hitting stats in the third chart below). The first chart below shows the MLB-wide levels for batting average over the past few seasons. This statistic had languished over the past few seasons, going from .252 in 2019 to .244 in 2021 (not shown but it was .245 in the 2020 shortened season) AND even lower to .243 last year.

DO YOU HAVE A BATTING AVERAGE OF .2617? (THEN YOU ARE AT THE MAIN EVENT 80% OVERALL TARGET)

But how does this level of batting average compare to straight-line projections for these categories for our 795 Main Event owners? Over the years I have examined the 80% level (achieving a total that provides 80% of the contest points for that category), since achieving the 80% threshold in your fantasy baseball contest not only will give you a strong level of rotisserie points in your fantasy baseball league, but in the case of the NFBC will place you in contention for the overall prizes as well (assuming you can achieve this for all ten roto categories).

Below is the 80% batting average targets for the past few seasons: it took almost a .269 average to be at 80% in the rabbit ball year of 2019. That fell to .261 by the next full year of 2021, and last year it was all the way down at .256. But what is the correct level in 2023? This year, fantasy owners – thus far – need a batting average of .2617 to hit the 80% mark. That would be 2.3% higher than 2022, just 0.2% above 2021 but actually still below 2019 by 2.6%. Therefore, (as you’d probably expect) the players the Main Event owners are rostering are significantly higher than the MLB universe as a whole – the team with exactly the midpoint of batting average in the Main Event is .2536 while the MLB-wide stat below (see hitting stats chart) is .248. But in order to earn that 80% target Main Event owners NOW need .2617 – so they should take a look at their teams and see if they need to focus on strong contact hitters in FAAB in order to stay competitive in this category. 

I’ve also updated the runs scored, home runs and batting average for this year (through Sunday, May 21st), and they are shown below compared to the 2017-2022 period. Notably, over the past week, the runs scored has jumped a little to 4.57 per game from 4.55, while the league-wide WHIP (second chart below) has trended even higher to 1.32 from 1.31 (well above the 1.27 produced last year).

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Give Me Liberatore or Give Me Death!

Main Event FAAB #9 (held on Sunday, May 21) illustrates that – against all odds – Main Event owners continue to spend (but a little less)! The 10 widest acquisitions are in the chart below, and once again – surprise – it is a rookie pitcher leading the way! This week it is Matthew Liberatore of the St. Louis Cardinals. Liberatore was added in all 53 Main Events for as high as $279 of FAAB out of a $1000 budget, with a low successful bid of $19. Matt McLain of Cincinnati was added in 53 leagues as well, as fantasy owners hope to get some offensive help in the middle infield. In addition, Brandon Williamson of the Reds pitched well in Coors Field which helped owners decide to take a chance on him. Then there was Edouard Julien, who was picked up in 40 Main Event leagues as he was recalled by the Twins (and by fantasy owners) as Minnesota will be using him to fill in for the injured Jorge Polanco.

THE CENTURY CLUB

In the 9th FAAB run (see below), there were just 11 $200-plus successful bids (down from 61) – with 8 of these 11 for Matthew Liberatore. I believe this shows that Main Event owners are finally realizing that there is a limit to their FAAB budget . As you can see below, we’ve now had 393 total winning bids over $200 (and 932 total $100+ winning bids) in the first nine weeks of FAAB.

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bid of the week? Of course it is no surprise that the highest winning bid was for a rookie starting pitcher. But it was not for Matthew Liberatore – but rather Bobby Miller of the Los Angeles Dodgers! This Miller (how many rookie starting pitchers named Miller are there, anyway?) was drafted in four Main Event leagues and was picked up this week in anticipation of his upcoming start, and the highest winning bid for him was $329, which easily beat the $172 second place bid in that league.

• 3/26: Darick Hall $221
• 4/2: Dany Jiménez $363
• 4/9 Oscar Colás $372
• 4/16 Taj Bradley $557
• 4/23 José Alvarado $399
• 4/30 Tanner Bibee $504
• 5/7 Bryce Miller $468
• 5/14 Eury Pérez $415
• 5/21 Bobby Miller $329

FAAB Summary

In the first 9 FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 14,175 winning bids (so each Main Event team has won 17.8 bids on average YTD – roughly two per week) and spent about $594 of their $1,000 allocation. Comparing that to the last two years at the 8-week mark, that’s more than the $517spent in 2022 AND the $520 spent two years ago. You can see in the chart below (the average amount spent per team column) that there was $52 spent per team this week. This does represent a significant drop from the heyday of weeks 8 and earlier, but I HAVE to believe that this will drop precipitously in the next two weeks down to $20-30 per team. With 27 FAAB periods and $594 spent in 9 weeks, owners are going to have to average $22.56 per week for ALL their winning bids over the final 18 weeks of the campaign.

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. In the chart below, you can see that the 6th FAAB period brought outstanding results thus far.  All four of these players have helped fantasy owners – and are currently still producing three weeks later. Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee of the Guardians are pitching well despite not gaining wins since they were widely added on 4/30, and Louie Varland of Minnesota has two wins even with a slightly higher ERA (but more strikeouts). Yennier Cano is that rare breed of relief pitcher who isn’t getting save opportunities but still helping fantasy owners’ stats, as he has an outstanding 14/0 K:BB ratio and a sterling ERA and WHIP.

All four players get a thumbs up from the emperor, which gives us now 10 thumbs up for the season thus far (42%), 10 down (42%), and 4 pushes (16%). That’s now ahead of 2022, which registered a 39% thumbs up on these weekly pickups and well ahead of 2021 (24%). 

The Rookie Hurlers

I’ve been a little amazed at the regularity of the rookie starting pitcher call-ups so I put together a list below with all the top rookie starters – and with a completely unscientific, unverified performance grade. The stats and the grade are based only on the stats listed – which are after the date of their wide pickups. We had one more this weekend (Liberatore), and possibly two more in the wings (Bobby Miller next week and maybe Gavin Williams later this season). 

Overall Leaderboard: As Long As You Love Maier

We have a new leader! After Jeff Tudor finally overtook Mike Mager he apparently relaxed and let Steve Maier (who was in 13th place last week) slip by him! Steve let out a big sigh of relief because his goal for the season was to be in first place by the 22nd of Maier – that’s what he calls this month – and now he has accomplished his goal. He sent along this illustration to let us all know how he’s feeling about the situation – thanks Steve!

In any case, Steve has built a 158-point lead over Jeff, who told me confidentially that when one door is closed, another one always opens up (or is it a window, Jeff?).

In the overall top thirty standing below, we find Michael Mager just below Jeff Tudor in third place, and he is plotting a course to return to the top. Eric Christenson was another big mover this week – from 24th place last week to 4th this week – outstanding work Eric! Mr. Pitching – Dalton Del Don – is now in 5th – and the ever dangerous Andrew Geller is 6th (and 16th!). Stephen Fiore moved up to 7th overall (from 10th), and Mark Srebro is looming in 8th. Mike Kurland held his 9th place position and David Hubbard is in great shape in 10th.

Among the other top-30 contenders, I have my eye on Travis Sawchik (11th), the man, the myth and the legend John Pausma (12th, 23rd AND 29th!!), Scott Slezak (13th) and Matty Davis (14th). Bob Catsiroumpas contended for the overall title last year and is back in 15th, and Dave Clum (17th), Dave Rydderch (18th), Stephen Marshall (19th) and Gregg Martin (20th) all have a shot. However, all of these thirty are doing fantastic work and should be commended for their performance thus far!

Champions Update

I like to keep tabs on our recent Overall Champions, because they have proven their mettle over long, difficult campaigns and therefore MUST be threats to do so again.

Philippe Dussault: Phil! Come On! Let’s DO SOMETHING, OK? Phil is mired in 275th place out of 795, and I just can’t bring myself to give him a hard time any more. Let’s all put together a Go Fund Me for Phil – he apparently spent all of his winnings on sports cars and fine wine and is now at a low point. Remember 2021, Phil!

Robert Cramutola: Bob moved up a bit from 61st to 48th, and remains calm. In fact, he recently addressed the Philadelphia Phillies in the locker room and told them they should start taking up yoga to find “that peaceful happy place.”

League of Legends

Shout-Outs

John Pausma is just making mincemeat of his five Main Event leagues (note to self – is mincemeat still a thing? Not sure). Ned Donohue is also not being a sporting fellow, as he has three first place Main Event positions, and Danny Bronski checks in with two firsts and a second. In addition, Kyle Brinkmann and Clark Olson have one first place and two seconds, while Scott Waggener has amassed two second places and a third. Excellent job gentlemen!

Twenty-one other players are in two cashing spots (with Andrew Geller and Mike Mager holding two first place positions). In fact, these 23 Main Event stars below have a combined 25 first place positions (47%) and 62 cashing spots (39% of the 159 total available). But the season isn’t over after nine weeks is it? IS IT? PHIL? ANYONE?

Good luck during Week 10!