Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a robust schedule of Major League Baseball games Tuesday, with all the local teams in the Tipico Sportsbook market in action. The Phillies have the toughest draw, facing against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Julio Urías is on the mound for LA, and he has been a beast this season. The Yankees face a former Dodgers hurler in Hyun Jin Ryu, and he is backed by an explosive Blue Jays offense that just hung 18 runs on the Red Sox with a record-breaking eight homers in one game. I hate to say it, but Yankees and Phillies fans are probably not in for a good Tuesday. The best bet of the local teams is the New York Mets, and here’s why.
The Mets take on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have been pretty good, winning 38 games already and tied with the Brewers for the NL Central lead. They have the third-best record in the NL behind the Dodgers and Giants. I know that does not sound like the Mets have the softest matchup, but it really all comes down to pitching. The Mets are rolling out Taijuan Walker, who has put up stellar numbers in the early going. Walker has a super low HR/9 this year at only 0.30 and just a .240 BABIP. His xFIP is around 4, which does mean he has been a bit lucky and is due for some negative regression. Walker is not an elite strikeout arm, although he is just shy of a K per inning. The strength of his game is inducing weak ground balls, something that will serve him well against a power hitting team like Chicago. On the other side of the game you have Alec Mills. Mills has been more of a bullpen arm than a starter this year. He did start last year in the coronavirus-shortened season, but the results were not great as he had just a 5-5 record with an ERA and xFIP around 4.50. Mills is also more of a ground ball pitcher, relying on his defense, as opposed to a strikeout arm. His K/9 is extremely low, clocking in at just 5.7 per 9 IP this year. The lack of a finishing pitch is why I like the Mets hitters here, as they should be able to get some baserunners and cause some damage.
When it comes to the hitters, these two teams are closer than many people believe. This is why I like the Mets, given the advantage they have with Walker on the mound vs. Mills. Both teams are right around league average with wRC+ numbers of 99. The Cubs do have slightly more power, but the Mets get on base more often, and given the GB nature of both pitchers, the HR ball is neutralized somewhat in this matchup. The Mets ability to get on base and grind out runs against Mills is why they should be able to take home the victory here. Currently the Mets are -150 favorites, and I would expect that to move before the day ends. Our fair value for the Mets in this matchup is closer to -170, so we have some room to move before it reaches our number. As things sit now, we have a big enough edge up to -160 that I would be looking to take a piece of that action. Not only do I like the Mets on the moneyline, but I also like the run line here at -1.5. You can get -1.5 at +140 on Tipico and that feels a little too rich. My favorite way to play this game is a blended approach with some on the moneyline and a little sprinkle on the run line at -1.5. I’m not touching the Yankees or Phillies here, so … “Let’s go Mets.”
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