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The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/22)

MLB Bets



Matt Kupferle

Contributor's Page

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.



Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Orioles (+270), Phillies (-335)
Total: 8.5 runs
Keegan Akin (L) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)

Three things to know

  • The Orioles have been striking out at a rapid clip (25.3%) lately.
  • Despite that high whiff rate, the Orioles are hitting quite well (.323 wOBA).
  • The Phillies are smoking at the plate, recording a .328 wOBA and .184 ISO.

Best bets: An easy same-game parlay here. Smash the Phillies.

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Rangers (+220), Yankees (-270)
Total: 8.0 runs
Taylor Hearn (L) vs. Corey Kluber (R)

Three things to know

  • Which version of Corey Kluber is going to show up?
  • The Yankees have really been struggling, strangely — they own a .319 wOBA and 24.4% strikeout rate.
  • The Rangers offense is not very dynamic — their .132 ISO and .303 wOBA is among the league’s worst.

Best bets: Can the Yankees take this one? They need it desperately to stay relevant.

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Mets (+152), Red Sox (-180)
Total: 9.0 runs
Taijuan Walker (R) vs. Chris Sale (L)

Three things to know

  • Can these top-10 offenses remain hot at the dish?
  • The Mets rank ninth in team wOBA (.328) with a .179 ISO in the L30 days.
  • Boston — even better. They are slamming the ball for a .355 wOBA and .214 ISO in the same time frame.

Best bets: The UNDER hit again Tuesday, but I’m taking a F3/F5 here on the Sawx.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Cardinals (-106), Brewers (-110)
Total: 9.5 runs
Miles Mikolas (R) vs. Brett Anderson (L)

Three things to know

  • The Cardinals have been inside the top-10 in wOBA and ISO.
  • The Brewers have struggled at a .302 woBA and .145 ISO in the last 30 days.
  • Can the white-hot Cardinals (L10: 10-0!) keep up this surge?

Best bets: I cannot bet against the Cardinals this week with their hot streak.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Dodgers (-210), Rockies (+176)
Total: 10.5 runs
Walker Buehler (R) vs. Germán Márquez (R)

Three things to know

  • Can Germán Márquez keep up this impressive 2021 campaign?
  • Can the Dodgers heat up? L30 days: .298 wOBA, .171 ISO.
  • The Rockies could also use some home magic with only a .311 wOBA.

Best bets: Same game, different day. Take the UNDER with these two excellent arms.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Astros (-210), Angels (+174)
Total: 9.5 runs
José Urquidy (R) vs. Janson Junk (R)

Three things to know

  • The Angels have been horrendous at the plate, logging a .148 ISO and .290 wOBA.
  • Houston has been the near opposite of the Angels, logging a .350 wOBA and 18.5% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
  • This has to be an all-time great pitching staff name. Tuesday, Packy Naughton; Wednesday, Janson Junk?

Best bets: The feels like it’s on repeat, and it is — plan on the Angels in a F3/F5 bet.

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Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Braves (-180), Diamondbacks (+152)
Total: 9.5 runs
Ian Anderson (R) vs. Merrill Kelly (R)

Three things to know

  • The Braves probably were expected to drop off offensively, but in the L30: .318 wOBA, .207 ISO.
  • Arizona is one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking in the bottom five in strikeout rate, wOBA, and ISO.
  • Merrill Kelly is working his way back into form — how will he show up?

Best bets: This screams same-game parlay over at FanDuel — the Braves offense is just too good.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Mariners (+120), Athletics (-142)
Total: 8.0 runs
Chris Flexen (R) vs. Cole Irvin (L)

Three things to know

  • The Mariners showed some life offensively over the last week — can they keep surging?
  • Seattle’s .309 wOBA over the last 30 days has been a slight improvement, but it’s not a great mark.
  • The Athletics and their .316 wOBA are in the middle of the pack. Can they surge to the top?

Best bets: I’m actually taking the OVER here. With both arms struggling as of late, expect these offenses to pop.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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