The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/13)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Marlins (-108), Nationals (-108)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sandy Alcantara (R) vs. Paolo Espino (R)

After nine innings and 14 strikeouts last time, can Sandy Alcantara replicate the strong performance?
The Nationals have been better at the plate, posting a .339 wOBA and only a 19.5% strikeout rate.
The Marlins have struggled all year at the plate — and in the last 30 days, they’ve logged only a .272 wOBA and 26.6% strikeout rate.

Best bets: Vegas is confused, and so am I on this game. I’d stay away from this one.

Rays (+116), Jays (-136)
Total: 9.0 runs
Collin McHugh (R) vs. Alek Manoah (R)

The Rays are among the league’s elite offenses, posting a .341 wOBA and .220 ISO in the last month.
The Jays? They’re even better — they’ve recorded a .365 wOBA and .227 ISO in the same time frame.
Alek Manoah has been incredible — can he stymie this outstanding offense?

Best bets: No way this total is this low — smash the OVER.

Cardinals (-106), Mets (-110)
Total: 7.5 runs
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Rich Hill (L)

Adam Wainwright has posted an impressive 2.23 ERA since the All-Star break.
The Cardinals are about as average as it gets — a .316 wOBA and .172 ISO in the last month.
Over the same time frame, the Mets have logged a .318 wOBA and .171 ISO.

Best bets: The UNDER. These offenses are not good, and the hurlers have been fantastic.

Astros (-190), Rangers (+160)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jake Odorizzi (R) vs. Spencer Howard (R)

Jake Odorizzi has not pitched 6.0 innings since July 9.
Houston is cookin’ at the plate, logging a .340 wOBA and 18.0% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
The Rangers are woefully bad at the plate. They own a .317 wOBA and .151 ISO in the same time frame.

Best bets: This one could get ugly — take the ‘Stros in a F3/F5 bet.

Padres (-106), Giants (-110)
Total: 8.0 runs
Yu Darvish (R) vs. Dominic Leone (R)

The Padres have been the league’s worst offense in the last month, logging a .282 wOBA and .140 ISO.
The Giants have relied on an excellent offense, recording a .328 wOBA and .183 ISO.
Can the Giants bullpen support opener Dominic Leone?

Best bets: These Padres are cooked — take the Giants in a F3/F5 bet.

Dodgers (+240), Diamondbacks (-295)
Total: 7.5 runs
Clayton Kershaw (L) vs. Zac Gallen (R)

The Dodgers have really struggled at the plate — can they turn things around?
Clayton Kershaw returns from a lengthy IR stay — what should we expect after a three-inning rehab start?
The Diamondbacks have been really bad lately — in the last month, they have logged a .308 wOBA and 23.1% strikeout rate.

Best bets: Don’t expect the lefty to go deep, but a Dodgers F3 bet seems like a no-brainer.

Red Sox (-120), Mariners (+102)
Total: 8.0 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Logan Gilbert (R)

Boston has been slamming at the plate (L30: .349 wOBA, .205 ISO). Can they keep going?
The Mariners have logged a .306 wOBA and .165 ISO in the same time frame.
It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Logan Gilbert — he’s logged 10.2 K/9 since the All-Star break, but he’s also struggled with the long ball (1.74 HR/9).

Best bets: I expect the Red Sox to get to Gilbert early — peek at some home run props, along with the OVER.