Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!
All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals betting breakdown
Phillies (-176), Nationals (+148)
Total: 8.0 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Patrick Corbin (L)
Three things to know
- After signing a monster contract two years ago, Patrick Corbin has been a bust with a 5.78 ERA this season.
- Meanwhile, free-agent signing Zack Wheeler (2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) could win the NL Cy Young.
- Washington may have traded away Trea Turner, but they are fourth in team wOBA in the last seven days (.359!).
Best bets: Find your favorite same game parlay and consider stacking Phillies bats against Corbin.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees betting breakdown
Orioles (+215), Yankees (-260)
Total: 10.0 runs
Alexander Wells (R) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)
Three things to know
- Baltimore has been smoking hot at the plate recently. They rank fourth in team wOBA over the last week.
- Can the new acquisitions for the pinstripes fix things? Let’s hope so, as they have been a middling offense all year.
- Nestor Cortes has been outstanding in a stop gap role – can he keep this up?
Best bets: The Orioles pounded the Yankees yesterday, but don’t bet on that two days in a row.
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown
Indians (+176), Blue Jays (-210)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zach Plesac (R) vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (L)
Three things to know
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. smacked another long ball yesterday – can he keep this ridiculous pace up?
- Where have the strikeouts gone for Zach Plesac? He only has 52 on the season.
- The Jays are an offense that’s a bit scary – they are torrid at the dish with a .207 ISO mark.
Best bets: This one is best avoided for Plesac owners – I’d expect this over to hit early and often.
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown
Red Sox (-148), Tigers (+126)
Total: 10.0 runs
Garrett Richards (R) vs. Wily Peralta (R)
Three things to know
- Detroit has been cooking at the dish – is this the real Tigers offense?
- Strangely, the Red Sox are the struggling offense. They only have a .292 wOBA in the last week.
- Wily Peralta was bombed last time out. I’d expect it to be two in a row.
Best bets: The over. Wily Peralta has been flirting with danger and the Tigers are improving.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown
Mariners (+138), Rays (-164)
Total: 8.5 runs
Yusei Kikuchi (L) vs. Luis Patiño (R)
Three things to know
- Is this finally the real Seattle with a .340 WOBA in the last week?
- Tampa has also been better at the plate – but their 26% whiff rate is still elevated.
- Luis Patiño is finally fulfilling that mega promise at the dish. He’s got a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in the last month.
Best bets: I like the under here. The Rays struggle mightily against lefties and I’m not sold yet on the M’s.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers betting breakdown
Angels (-126), Rangers (+108)
Total: 8.5 runs
José Suarez (L) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)
Three things to know
- Texas has been awful at the plate – they now have a .291 wOBA in the last week.
- The Angels could use the return of Mike Trout – their .248 wOBA in the same time frame is the league’s worst mark.
- Jordan Lyles has to keep the ball in the yard. He has been undone with a 1.97 HR/9 mark this season.
Best bets: I actually like the under or a Shohei HR prop. These teams are really struggling offensively.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown
Pirates (+188), Brewers (-225)
Total: 9.0 runs
Max Kranick (R) vs. Adrian Houser (R)
Three things to know
- I guess the trade for John Nogowski didn’t resurrect Pittsburgh. They rank dead last in team wOBA in the last seven days (.254).
- The Brewers seem to be turning a corner at the plate – over the same time frame, they rank eighth in wOBA.
- Max Kranick’s 18.7% strikeout rate and nearly 40% fly-ball rate indicates he is flirting with some danger.
Best bets: Another same-game parlay, especially with the recent struggles at the plate for the Pirates. Some home run props could be a lot of fun here.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown
Royals (+210), White Sox (-255)
Total: 9.0 runs
Kris Bubic (L) vs. Dylan Cease (R)
Three things to know
- The Royals have been in trouble this year, and their offense shows it – their 24.4% strikeout rate in the last week shows they are whiffing aplenty.
- Eloy Jiménez is expected to be activated tonight – can he jump-start this struggling offense?
- Kris Bubic has struggled with the long ball – he’s allowed a not-so-nice 1.69 HR/9 this season.
Best bets: This feels like a blood bath in waiting – I’d find a lot of White Sox bets to enjoy this evening.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown
Braves (-126), Cardinals (+108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Jon Lester (L)
Three things to know
- I am truly confused about what the Cardinals are doing – why trade for poorly performing arms like Jon Lester and J.A. Happ?
- The Birds have been awful at the dish recently – their strikeout rate is in the top-10 worst in the league, and they’ve recorded a .291 wOBA.
- Fried has been much better as of late, and he’s averaging better than a strikeout per inning in the last month.
Best Bets: Another same-gamer here – the Cardinals are just a bad team.
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown
Cubs (+120), Rockies (-142)
Total: 11.5 runs
Zach Davies (R) vs. Kyle Freeland (L)
Three things to know
- Colorado’s 27.6% strikeout rate in the last week is the second-worst mark in the league.
- Who are Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo? The Cubs have cooked at the plate with a .313 wOBA recently.
- Can Davies keep the ball in the yard? He’s held his own with a 0.83 HR/9 mark this year.
Best bets: That number feels like a monster for the over/under. With the Cubs losing those three, I’m going under.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown
Giants (-180), Diamondbacks (+152)
Total: 10.0 runs
Johnny Cueto (R) vs. Madison Bumgarner (L)
Three things to know
- Bumgarner will face his old team and organization he won three rings with – can he channel that past performance?
- Johnny Cueto, in the last year of a contract, has been brilliant – he owns a 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in the last month.]
- Both teams sport strikeout rates greater than 24.0% in the last week.
Best bets: A same game parlay makes a lot of sense with Bumgarner struggling so badly.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown
Astros (+152), Dodgers (-180)
Total: 8.5 runs
Lance McCullers Jr. (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)
Three things to know
- Easily the best matchup of the day pitching-wise with these two studs on the mound. Runs will be at a premium.
- Houston has been whiffing at an 18.9% clip in the last week, but the Dodgers have been tough, too, with a 20.9% mark over the same span.
- Both teams have been scorching at the plate, ranking in the top-10 in wOBA, slugging percentage, and ISO.
Best bets: Both pitchers have been brilliant in 2021 – bet the under.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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