The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/23)


Each day, we are going to give you a quick preview of the day’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Humberto Mejía vs. Wil Crowe
Pirates -130/Diamondbacks +110
Total: 9.5 

Three things to know

  • These are the two worst teams in the National League.
  • Mejia has allowed 3 homers in 10 IP at the MLB level.
  • Crowe has a WHIP of 1.57 this season. Both teams will have plenty of base runners

Best bet: Normally, with two bad pitchers on the mound, the over makes sense, but Pittsburgh is a pitcher’s park. The Pirates also have the second-lowest wRC+ against RHP this year at just 80, with the Diamondbacks not much better in a tie for third worst at 82. Give me the under 9.5 runs which you can find at -105 on DraftKings

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Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Lance Lynn vs. Alek Manoah
White Sox -110/Blue Jays +101
Total: 8.5

Three things to know

  • The active Toronto lineup has the second-best wRC+ at 117 against RHP in 2021.
  • Chicago is eighth with a 108 wRC+.
  • Both pitchers have under a 1.10 WHIP.

Best bet: Two pitchers who have looked dominant against two of the league’s better lineups against right-handed pitching. This should be an excellent game. I think the value lies with the home underdog here in an evenly matched game. Take the plus money. 

New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves

Jordan Montgomery vs. Huascar Ynoa
Yankees +110/Braves -124
Total: 9

Three things to know

  • The Yankees have won nine straight. They have the third-best record in the AL.
  • The Braves have also won nine straight to go 5 up in the NL East.
  • Both lineups are facing their weaker split. Atlanta has a 100 wRC+ vs. LHP, and the Yankees have a 98 wRC+ against righties.

Best bet: The Braves are the team with more juice in this matchup. Ynoa has been awesome this year with a 3.21 xFIP and just a 1.02 WHIP. He has over a K per inning and faces a team that is below average against RHP and has a high strikeout rate. Both teams have been absolutely on fire the past two weeks, but Atlanta gets the nod here at home. 

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

Antonio Senzatela vs. Kyle Hendricks
Rockies +115/Cubs -125
Total: 9

Three things to know

  • Kyle Hendricks has 14 wins. The Cubs have 54 as a team. That means Hendricks has 26% of the team’s wins.
  • The current Rockies lineup has a league-low 76 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2021.
  • The Cubs current lineup is also very bad with just an 83 wRC+.

Best bet: Hendricks is better than Senzatela and the Cubs offense is slightly better than the Rockies as well. The Cubs project to win this game about 57% of the time. Plug -125 into our Odds Calculator and you will see that is 55.5%, so there is a slight edge with the Cubs. I prefer the F5 number to take bullpens out of the equation but would also be willing to play the moneyline.

Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros

Daniel Lynch vs. Zack Greinke
Royals +215/Astros -233
Total: 9

Three things to know

  • Greinke’s 2021 WHIP of 1.11 is below his 1.16 career average, but his K/9 is down.
  • After getting lit up in May, Lynch has allowed just 8 runs in six starts since (more than 30 IP).
  • Houston has the best numbers vs. LHP in the league with a 122 wRC+.

Best bet: The Astros are the clear and deserving favorite here, but they are also the value even at -233. I have the line set at -245, so you are getting a slight discount. 

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Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

Marco Gonzales vs. Paul Blackburn
Mariners +115/A’s -125
Total: 9

Three things to know

  • Gonzales has not been good. His 2021 HR/9 is 1.72 vs. 1.16 for his career. His xFIP is almost a full run above his current ERA. He’s been lucky not to be worse.
  • Oakland is ninth vs. LHP with a respectable 107 wRC+
  • Blackburn is not good, but Seattle is dreadful vs. RHP with just a 93 wRC+.

Best bet: Oakland at -125 feels way too short. I respect Marco Gonzales, but this is not his year. Oakland is my best bet of the day and biggest edge. 

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