Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
Astros (-162), Orioles (+136)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jake Odorizzi (R) vs. Keegan Akin (L)
This is going to be a spicy one inside Camden Yards, a hitter-friendly park. There’s a monster wind blowing out to straightaway center, and while the rookie southpaw Keegan Akin has more than acquitted himself, Jake Odorizzi just hasn’t been the same hurler this season. The Astros, somewhat quietly, are the league’s leader in team wOBA and wRC+. All of these factors make it feel like it’s gonna be a long night for pitching.
Best bets: I know it’s a lot of runs, but I give a lean to the over here.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Athletics (-130), Rangers (+110)
Total: 8.5 runs
Frankie Montas (R) vs. Kyle Gibson (R)
Look, I know that the Athletics are a far better team than the Rangers, but this line seems off here. So far in the 2021 season, Gibson has been arguably a dark horse in the AL Cy Young race. Over 77.2 innings pitched, the righty has logged a 2.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, and him showcasing only four wins so far this season is a bit unfortunate. Frankie Montas, meanwhile, has been a bit more up-and-down – and last start, we got to see the upside of the righty as he whiffed 8 in seven innings.
Best bets: This feels like an under, especially with a strong Texas wind blowing in.
Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs
Indians (+126), Cubs (-148)
Total: 7.5 runs
Aaron Civale (R) vs. Adbert Alzolay (R)
Adbert Alzolay returns to action after a quick injured list stint thanks to a blister he suffered in his most recent outing. Alzolay has leaned heavily on a devastating slider (39% of pitch mix) leading to solid success for him this season. On the flip side, Aaron Civale takes the ball, and it’s likely he is feasting his chops at this matchup, as the Cubs have been brutal at the dish recently. Over the last 14 days, they have ranked third-worst in baseball with a .264 wOBA and a whopping 28.0% strikeout rate.
Best bets: I would be targeting either an Aaron Civale strikeout prop or even the UNDER.
Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins
Reds (-120), Twins (+102)
Total: 9.0 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. J.A. Happ (L)
This continues to get worse and worse for J.A. Happ, who has been absolutely obliterated over his recent run of starts. Over those last seven turns, which has resulted in a singular win for the lefty Happ, he’s been blasted for a 9.84 ERA, 9 homers and 63 base runners in 32 innings pitched. Yowza. And the Reds? They are still one of the league’s best offensive attacks.
Best bets: This feels like a moneyline Reds bet here, as Happ has really been struggling.
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Brewers (-124), Diamondbacks (+106)
Total: 9.5 runs
Brett Anderson (L) vs. Merrill Kelly (R)
It’s a bit disheartening to watch this Diamondbacks team, which is even getting trolled by their own social media accounts, continue to struggle. They have now lost 24 consecutive games at home, and what’s even wilder is that they do not have the league’s worst road record. Woof. That moniker is owned by the Colorado Rockies. However, returning home they may be able to get some of their mojo back, and Brett Anderson may oblige – he’s been pretty mediocre with a 1.39 WHIP and only 30 strikeouts this season.
Best bets: I feel like home helps the D-Backs out, and they get back in the win column tonight. Take the juice with the Diamondbacks.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Dodgers (+108), Padres (-136)
Total: 7.0 runs
Julio Urías (L) vs. Yu Darvish (R)
One of the biggest storylines is that the Dodgers *will not be* favored tonight in this game. Why does that matter? This is the first time the Dodgers were not moneyline favorites in a game since – wait for – 2019. Yes, the Dodgers have been favored in 150 straight games. Can this line flip before tonight ends? Yu Darvish has been so incredible on the mound that it looks unlucky, not that Julio Urías has been any less studly, either.
Best bets: The betting value feels like the Dodgers here, even with a tough matchup.
