The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (6/2)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Rays (+114), Yankees (-134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Shane McClanahan (L) vs. Jordan Montgomery (L)

This continues to showcase tight-scoring affairs. The Rays are struggling against left-handed pitching, sporting the third-highest strikeout rate in this split. The Yankees also continue to struggle offensively — their five-run Monday burst was one of the largest scoring outputs they’ve had in the last two weeks.

Best bets: The UNDER. We are going to keep going to this well.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

Twins (-144), Orioles (+122)
Total: 9.5 runs
Randy Dobnak (R) vs. Matt Harvey (R)

Neither of these arms has been particularly solid, and that’s reflected in the over/under of 9.5 runs. Dobnak’s 6.49 ERA is pretty ugly — and while his 50.6% ground-ball rate is pretty spicy, his 16.5% strikeout rate leaves quite a bit to be desired. Similarly, this ain’t the Dark Knight of old. Stunningly, he has a higher ERA than Dobnak (6.84) and he is being absolutely done in by the long ball (2.96 HR/9).

Best bets: Monday was a return to more normal — there were quite a few runs piled up. Expect that again here with these two struggling hurlers on the mound.

Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays

Marlins (+138), Blue Jays (-164)
Total: 8.0 runs
Pablo López (R) vs. Alek Manoah (L)

After a truly breathtaking performance in his Major League debut, stymying the struggling Yankees offense in the Bronx, what’s in store for part two for southpaw Alek Manoah? The darling of bidding wars in season-long fantasy contests, you couldn’t have asked for a better initial performance with six scoreless frames. On the flip side, Pablo López only owns one win to his name, but he’s been just as good as nearly anyone else this season with a 2.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

Best bets: The UNDER. I’m not sure I love either betting side here, and if Lopez can keep the red-hot Blue Jays offense in check, this could make for a solid play.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Nationals (+138), Braves (-164)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jon Lester (L) vs. Drew Smyly (L)

After Stephen Strasburg exited Tuesday’s game early (yet again), the Nationals bullpen has been officially burned. I would assume they wouldn’t leave a veteran like Jon Lester out to dry, but this could get ugly, and fast. That’s especially a bad sign for a bullpen sporting an ERA of nearly 4.00. On the flip side, Drew Smyly hasn’t exactly been a candidate for a Cy Young.

Best bets: After Tuesday’s early exit combined with two struggling hurlers, I like the OVER and a Braves F5 bet here.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Red Sox (+124), Astros (-146)
Total: 9.0 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Framber Valdez (L)

Holding this powerful offense in check on back-to-back days, it’s Framber Valdez’s turn to see if he can replicate the same performances as someone like Luis García did Tuesday. Something tells me it won’t happen — and while Nick Pivetta has thrown well, he has been roughed up a bit recently. Over his last five starts, he’s allowed 16 earned runs in his last 28 innings.

Best bets: I’m taking the OVER again here. It missed last game, but I expect the bats to come alive.

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies

Rangers (-116), Rockies (-102)
Total: 11.0 runs
Jordan Lyles (R) vs. Antonio Senzatela (R)

A very well-pitched game did break out in the first game of this series — and the line reflected that. Wednesday? Not so much — Jordan Lyles has been popped for an ERA nearing 6 while allowing 1.5 base runners per frame, and Antonio Senzatela? Yikes. He’s 1-5 with nearly identical marks to Lyles.

Best bets: Eleven runs is a lot — but it does strike my fancy. In all honesty, with these pitchers on the mound, I am probably looking at some home run props.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners

Athletics (-156), Mariners (+132)
Total: 8.5 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Chris Flexen (R)

With an over/under of only 7.5 runs Tuesday, this one got absolutely demolished in a 12-6 Athletics win. I wouldn’t count on 18 runs — and to be fair, 12 runs were scored in the game’s last three innings — but the Mariners offense is just painful to watch right now. And they are rapidly climbing up the strikeout boards, sitting fifth worst in baseball.

Best bets: I love the Manaea strikeout over here. It’s currently at 6.5 strikeouts (+124) over at DraftKings. Crush this.

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Cardinals (+198), Dodgers (-240)
Total: 8.0 runs
Carlos Martínez (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)

For the third day in a row, the Dodgers are hefty favorites on the day. While Tuesday’s game was surprisingly close, Wednesday appears to be more of a mismatch again with veteran Carlos Martínez taking on Walker Buehler. The advanced rate metrics hate Martínez — he owns a 13.5% strikeout rate, which puts him as the lowest among all qualified starters in baseball. He does sport a healthy ground-ball rate (50.6%), but that is a bit scary considering his 42.5% hard-hit rate.

Best bets: I am going to repeat a few words here, but once again, love a same game parlay here — the Dodgers moneyline, a F5 bet, and even the over. Look for the Dodgers to take the Cardinals to the woodshed.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)