The Change-Up: Contrarian MLB DFS plays for Sunday

It’s time for another look at the daily MLB slate through the lends of the chalk — must-have plays, low owned pitchers and stacks. I will break down who I love, who I’m fading, and who’s trending in my model.

My roster construction is usually built around two three-man stacks and a two-player mini stack (my lock guys). I will also add in my home run calls as well.

Sunday’s slate has some exceptionally good arms in great spots, especially looking at the lineups that have been posted. We’ll see a lot of people gravitate to the top arm on both sites, which looks good on paper but facing a pesky team that has been hot.

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Let's get into this.

Pitching

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (vs. MIA)

DeGrom has been good so far this season, striking out 22 batters in 17 innings, while allowing 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Meanwhile, the Marlins have played out of their minds considering they are rolling out some washed-up veterans and under-the-radar prospects, and they can give deGrom some issues. Don’t get me wrong, the spot is good, but I also think he allows runs from the Marlins playing small ball.

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Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (vs. CIN)

Have you seen the lineup the Cincinnati Reds are rolling out? Woodruff should have a floor of at least 7 strikeouts and a quality start. He has back to back quality starts, while striking out 16 and allowed just 2 runs in 12 1/3 innings.

Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers (@ PIT)

I love to watch Turnbull throw. He has good stuff with his 31.8% strikeout rate in 2020 while limiting lefties to just a 10% hard contact. Going back to 2019, he was tough on righties with a strikeout rate around 26%.

Stacks

Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

We’re riding the hot hand here against another lefty in Steven Brault. Detroit is crushing lefties, hitting .333 with seven homers in 2020. Work your roster construction around JaCoby Jones, Jeimer Candelario and Jonathan Schoop.