Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
He paid off nicely Wednesday when he made the list, going 3-5 with a home run, so I’m going right back, but this time as an MVP candidate. Jorge López has had a rough season thus far, giving up 24 earned runs in 34 innings. Since 2018, López is allowing a .367 wOBA, .228 ISO and 40.4% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Soto matches up well with López’s main four pitches, hitting each with a career wRC+ of at least 128.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
He’s one of the most expensive hitters on the slate, but for good reason since he’s facing a lefty. Tyler Anderson is putting together the best season of his career so far. Since leaving the Rockies and not having to pitch at Coors Field all the time, he has been better. However, right-handed hitters are still able to get to him. He is allowing a .331 wOBA and .216 ISO to right-handed hitters in his career away from Coors Field. Acuña is one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching in the league with a .397 wOBA, 147 wRC+, and 42.9% hard contact rate since 2018.
StatHero flex pick
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
He’s finally starting to heat up at the plate with hits in seven of his last 10 games, including five multi-hit games. Martín Pérez has been much better in May than April, generating a lot more ground balls but Hoskins’ extreme fly ball tendencies should counter that. Since 2018, Perez is allowing a .356 wOBA, .174 ISO and 36.6% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Hoskins is very good against left-handed pitching with a .387 wOBA, .236 ISO and 39.3% hard contact rate since 2018. Plus, he matches up well with Perez’s pitches, hitting them with a career wRC+ of at least 105.
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays
One of the hottest hitters in all of baseball right now, picking up a hit in six of his last seven games, including four multi-hit games and two home runs. Anthony Kay has been a reverse-splits pitcher in his short career thus far giving up a .428 wOBA, .296 ISO and 41.5% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Meadows is one of the better lefty-on-lefty hitters in the game with a .320 wOBA, .209 ISO and 43.3% hard contact rate since 2018.
Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals
Schwarber is another player who made the list Wednesday, but he wasn’t as kind to us. However, he did hit home runs in two of the games at Wrigley Field and has a hit in 10 of his last 14 games. I like him more this time around, since Lopez is giving up more hard contact and a higher ISO to left-handed hitters than the pitcher he faced Wednesday.
Yermín Mercedes, Chicago White Sox
He has only had 35 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in his short career but has done very well in those (.474 wOBA, .242 ISO). Jordan Montgomery is coming off his worst start of the season against the Orioles, giving up five earned runs in three innings. Since 2018, Montgomery is giving up a .350 wOBA and .205 ISO to right-handed hitters.
Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
It’s been a very tough season so far for Kepler, but I think he’s trending upward. The batting average isn’t great but his 11 hits this month are already tied with his April total and he has hit all four of his home runs in May as well. Triston McKenzie has been very up and down this season but has given up five earned runs in two of his three starts this month. McKenzie is allowing a .359 wOBA, .247 ISO and 52.9% fly ball rate to left-handed hitters in his career.
StatHero sleeper
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
Here’s another White Sox rookie, but Vaughn is much cheaper at $7,900. In his 34 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching he is dominating with a .462 wOBA, .308 ISO and 52.9% hard contact rate. I know it’s a small sample size, but the upside is there against Montgomery and his aforementioned struggles, especially at his price.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
One of the cheapest Braves on the slate at $8,300 and one of the hotter hitters on the Braves thanks to a five game hit streak with two home runs. Riley is one of the best hitters on the team with a 44% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching, as well as a .340 wOBA and .277 ISO in his career.
Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies
Just way too cheap at $6,200 for the former MVP. He’s back on track this month hitting .274 after a very tough April hitting just .169. He has also hit six of his seven home runs this month. He gets to face the previously stated struggles of Perez against right-handed pitching. On top of that, he is 5-12 with two doubles against Perez in his career.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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