Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Well, would you look at that. My favorite MVP pick back on the list. José Urquidy is on the bump and a reverse-splits pitcher in his career (.348 wOBA, .211 ISO to right-handed hitters). Trout has the ability to dominate every pitcher, regardless of handedness. He crushes every pitch Urquidy can throw at him with an absolutely ridiculous wRC+ of at least 135 in his career.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Devers is heating back up at the plate with home runs in two of his last three games and nine RBI in his last six games. Facing rookie right-hander James Kaprielian, who has thrown just over three innings at the major league level, Devers has the platoon advantage and hits every pitch Kaprielian throws very well with a wRC+ of at least 117 in his career.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Returning to his MVP form and facing lefty rookie Sam Hentges with just nine innings pitched in his career. Bryant was removed from Tuesday night’s game after not feeling well, so keep an eye out for news before locking him in. The best hitter against left-handed pitching on the Cubs by far and one of the best in the league at $9,700 feels like robbery. Since 2018, Bryant has a .456 wOBA, .347 ISO and 39.2% hard contact against left-handed pitching.
StatHero flex pick
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Altuve is heating up big time in May, with a seven-game hit streak, including five multi-hit games. Andrew Heaney struggles some against right-handed hitting since 2018, giving up a .198 ISO and 42.1% hard contact rate. Altuve has the upper hand on Heaney when they’ve met, going 10-25 with three doubles and a home run.
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
Cronenworth is on fire right now with a hit in every game in May except for one, including three multi-hit games in a row. Jon Gray has been good at home this season, but lefties are still faring well against him (.358 wOBA, .236 ISO). He has also struggled to generate soft contact (4.9%) against lefties at home this season. Cronenworth has been very good against right-handed pitching in his career with a .383 wOBA, .226 ISO, and 38.8% hard contact.
Yermín Mercedes, Chicago White Sox
“Can’t stop, won’t stop,” must be what Mercedes keeps telling himself, because the man is on fire again with back-to-back multi-hit games. J.A. Happ has done very well this season, but I’m betting on Mercedes’ talent and platoon advantage against the lefty. It’s a very small sample, but Mercedes has crushed lefties with a .523 wOBA, .348 ISO and 40.9% hard contact rate.
Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds
Moustakas is off to a slow start this month but in a good spot against Trevor Cahill, who has given up at least five earned runs in three of his six starts this season. Cahill also has his fair share of struggles against left-handed batters (.336 wOBA, .199 ISO, 40.4% hard contact rate since 2018). Moustakas’ fly ball rate (49% vs RHP since 2018) will help negate Cahill’s high ground ball rate. When they’ve faced off before, Moustakas has won the battles, going 6-9 with a home run.
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Muncy is still not hitting at the level he’s accustomed to, but he’s improving. He has a solid matchup against Justin Dunn, who has really struggled against left-handed hitting in his short career (.375 wOBA, .263 ISO, 38.9% hard contact rate). Muncy hits a lot of fly balls and Dunn is a fly ball pitcher giving us a greater chance for a home run.
StatHero sleeper
Ryan O'Hearn, Kansas City Royals
Casey Mize is coming off one of his best starts of the season, but last time he faced the Royals he gave up six earned runs, including two long balls. O’Hearn really struggled in April but is doing a lot better in May. Mize is still struggling to get lefties out with a .418 wOBA, .294 ISO, and 39.6% hard contact rate. At $7,000, O’Hearn is a great salary saver.
Matt Duffy, Chicago Cubs
Duffy is a huge part of the Cubs offense this month, hitting .320 with five runs scored. I’ll be surprised if he’s not in the lineup with how well he’s been playing and a lefty on the bump. This season he’s hitting all three pitches Hentges throws well with a wRC+ of at least 109. At $6,600 he’s one of the best values on the slate.
Marwin Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox
Gonzalez is by far the cheapest hitter on the slate at $4,900 and for good reason with his struggles this season. Rostering him lets you fit in some of the bigger bats above. This play is largely based on his salary and the inexperience of Kaprielian on the mound.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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