Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory (Week 9)

Distraction, distractions, distractions. It’s that time of the fantasy baseball season where it’s easily to get lost in the day-to-day grind. And we’re not even halfway through.

As a die-hard Denver Nuggets fan, I fully admit they’ve distracted me at times during their run to the NBA Finals. Hey, what are you going to do? I’m only human. However, watching baseball remains absolutely essential to success in this beautiful game of fantasy (we’ll get to that later).

I feel like I’ve written this exact phrase 100 times already this season: “It seems so simple, but…” Well, guess what? I’m going to say it again in this week’s Game Theory section. But first, a quick story.

Back in 2015, I was finishing up my senior year at Monmouth University when something struck me. Could I be valedictorian? It was early March, and I was looking over my transcript. There was a legitimate chance.  I promise you, I’m not here to humblebrag. I wasn’t even top 10 in my high school class. But for some reason, once I got to college, I really locked in on my studies. Ten-page paper due in a week? I’d write it the day after receiving the assignment. Huge final coming up? No one was more prepared than me. Not even that weird kid who could recite all 44,342,864 digits of pi. Yet as March came around, the NCAA Basketball Tournament craze began. That cruel temptress.

March Madness always began right before Spring Break. The week before break was always the toughest to navigate from a motivational standpoint – especially when you’re writing bracketology columns for the school paper on the side. I probably nailed my bracket that year. Too bad I exchanged that for a lifetime of regret. I slipped up and got a B in one of my courses. At the end of May, I realized that B cost me valedictorian. Oof.

The reason I bring up this story? It’s so easy to lose focus during the fantasy baseball season. Human beings typically view the beginning and end as the two most important parts of the whole. We relax when we get off to a hot start to the season. We procrastinate in the middle and tell ourselves, “I’ll make a push late.” Well, sometimes that push isn’t enough. It’s the middle where you can lose your way – just like I did when March Madness caught me napping back in 2015. I guess that’s the real reason Jon Rothstein says, “We sleep in May.” I wish he could have told me that eight years ago.

So as I sit here in the year 2023, I vow to make smarter decisions. Nikola Jokic’s epic playoff run won’t distract me on my journey to take down the NFBC Online Auction Championship (I’m inside the top 50 right now – OK, that was the humblebrag).

And as always, please remember…

Making smart decisions in fantasy baseball doesn’t always have to be based on data. Every other week, I’ll take you through my thought process on how to attack this week’s MLB slate and beyond. The ideas in this series will be fluid. My goal is to keep things fresh so you keep coming back for more. It won’t always be about the NFBC either. If you’re in a H2H points league (like me), I’ve got your back too – especially this week! 

Game Theory Week 7 in Review

I’m all about transparency. Most analysts put out great content, but rarely do they go back to review their past takes and “grade” themselves. It’s the best way to hold yourself accountable and review your own personal process. So every other week, I’ll set aside a few paragraphs to review the advice I gave to fantasy mangers two weeks ago. Here’s what I discussed back in Week 7.

A quick look at my buy-low, sell-high players.

Buy Low

• Grayson Rodriguez alternated a bad start with a good start since Week 7 (Update: Rodriguez was sent down. Not worth negotiations at the moment).
• Nick Lodolo landed on the IL. He might be there for a while. 
• Daulton Varsho is somewhat slumping again. I’m still a long-term believer.
• It’s hard to buy any lower on Josh Bell. Maybe I’ll just take the, L. You can’t spell Bell without … you get the point.

Sell High

• Our own Daniel Kelley poked fun of me after Justin Steele tossed six shutout innings Sunday. We talked about Steele as one of our top-250 ADP pitchers to draft. And then I hopped off the wagon and told you to sell high. I stand by that call, even as a proud manager of Steele across the board.
• I’m still waiting on Bryce Elder to falter. It will happen.
• Matt Chapman and Yusei Kikuchi have predictably cooled off. Geraldo Perdomo is still hanging in there, while Seth Lugo had a bad start and hit the IL with a calf injury.

Overall, not much has changed in terms of my view of these players. However…

I’d like to turn the clock back to the Week 3 edition of Game Theory. It wasn’t a great start, but bidding on Francisco Álvarez has started to pay off. Not only is he heating up at the plate, he’s also been outperforming Alejandro Kirk (on my roster) and getting more steady playing time. The lesson here? Positional strength is important. Don’t be afraid to address areas of strength if the opportunity presents itself. I can’t imagine what I’d be doing at my Catcher No. 2 spot if I didn’t have Álvarez.

Week 9 Game Theory: Watch the Games!

“It’s seems so simple, but…” Anyone want to guess the rest of this sentence?

It seems so simple, but you’ll become a much sharper fantasy baseball player the more you sit down and actually watch the games.

Here’s an example from a few weeks ago that led me to snag relief pitcher Miguel Castro for $7 in FAAB when no one else bid on him. If you haven’t watched the D-backs lately, you would have missed that manager Torey Lovullo has shifted the ninth-inning role from Andrew Chafin to Castro.

Back on May 16, the D-backs led by two runs going into the bottom of the eighth. Castro began to warm in the bullpen. I know this because I was watching the game. Arizona plated three runs in the inning and made it a non-save situation in the ninth. Castro never left the bullpen. Box-score watchers saw that Chafin retired one batter in the eighth inning before giving way to Anthony Misiewicz and Kyle Nelson in the ninth.

I’m willing to bet they assumed, “Chafin would have pitched the ninth if the game wasn’t out of hand.” Not true. Castro was going to pitch the ninth if it remained a two-run game. And nobody else saw that coming. Castro only had two saves at the time, but Lovullo has started to trust him in the high-leverage spots – whether it’s the seventh, eighth or ninth. 

Earlier in the season, Chafin had a stranglehold on the ninth. The tide has since turned, yet no one saw the waves crash to the surface. Castro has two saves in four appearances since then, including a two-save performance in Week 8 (and a save this week that was randomly changed to a “win” despite Castro entering the game with a 4-3 lead in the ninth – thanks “official scorer”). Thirteen of his last 14 outings have been scoreless. 

There are plenty of other examples to glean from watching ball games. Sticking with the Diamondbacks, Brandon Pfaadt deserved better last Saturday. He allowed three earned runs in 5.1 innings, struck out three and walked two. But unless you watched the game, you didn’t see Pavin Smith misplay a long fly ball to right field with the bases loaded and two outs in the third. If Smith makes that catch, Pfaadt likely ends up with six scoreless innings and a win. Piss-poor BABIP luck and defensive miscues can kill a pitching line and give you the wrong impression about a particular pitcher.

At the plate, I remember Vinnie Pasquantino flying out to the warning track 10-15 times last season. It’s something I took note of heading into this season – more specifically, the fact he was making hard contact all over the yard. Box score watchers only saw, “Vinnie Pasquantino flies out to right fielder (insert name here).”

You, the game-watcher would raise your eyebrows and see an opportunity. I like to make mental notes as I watch games. This pitcher deserved better. This hitter was robbed. Oh wow, this guy was robbed again. Those bits and pieces of missed context can add up during the course of the season. You can buy low and sell high on players based on those tidbits. Others might not have that in their back pocket.

Look, I understand we all have lives (although reading this, you probably think I don’t – and you might be right). Nobody can watch all 30 teams play 162 games. That’s 4,860 games. No one’s expecting you to do that. But if you want to be a serious fantasy baseball player, I strongly advise you to sit in front of the TV or computer and just watch. 

Observe. Take mental notes. Write stuff down. Cross guys off your target list. Pencil in new names. Pay attention to who’s warming up and when.

While the rest of your competition is coasting through the dog days of fantasy summer, you (and maybe that weird neighbor in the DirectTV commercial) will gain an edge over your leaguemates. 

As always, hit me up on Twitter @Adam15Young with anything that’s on your mind. And keep asking those questions in the Fantasy Baseball Discord.