Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Just two weeks through the MLB season, and we’ve seen power and stolen bases up while new rules in place have made average games times considerably quicker. Obviously, it’s a long season and there will be ebbs and flows for all, but we’re off to a nice start. No one’s start nicer than the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won their first 13 games and are averaging a whopping 7.77 runs per game. It’s imperative to take advantage of these ebbs and flows and make moves that are predictive, not reactive. Prediction Strike is the perfect place to do so.
With Prediction Strike, we can buy and sell players stocks much like the actual stock market, and in doing so we are able to create portfolios. However, unlike DFS or sports betting, these can also be long-term investments. Considering that long-term angle, we can take advantage of some of the things unique to baseball, such as players changing teams at an incredibly high rate over the offseason and hundreds of exciting prospects, some of whom may even make big impacts in the MLB this season. But with the increased size of MLB rosters and players who receive regular playing time, we get increased opportunities to find some overlooked diamonds in the rough.
Here are a couple of names to consider over at Prediction Strike.
Prediction Strike Pick: Kodai Senga, New York Mets
There has been very little Prediction Strike market movement for the Mets’ 30-year-old fireballer, Kodai Senga despite a promising start to his MLB career. Through two starts (11.2 IP), Senga has two wins, just two earned runs allowed, a 52% ground ball rate and a 14:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He hits 96-97 mph on the regular with his four-seam fastball and possesses an incredibly deceptive breaking pitch that’s sweeping the nation – the ghost fork. Senga’s Prediction Strike price has hovered right around its $1.10 IPO and has even seen a 0.29% reduction over the past week, for literally no reason. This is a long-term hold, but we can also consider a quick buy-low, sell-high after Friday’s start against a woeful Oakland Athletics offense. It’s still early in the season, but the A’s are already near the bottom of the barrel in most offensive categories. Against right-handed pitchers, they have the ninth-highest strikeout rate (24.8%) and are near the bottom in ISO (.148), wOBA (.288) and wRC+ (85). Whether it’s a quick weekend buy and dump or a long-term purchase, Kodai Senga is well worth your investment.
Prediction Strike Pick: J.D. Martinez, Los Angeles Dodgers
J.D. Martinez is a rare case where we’re not buying a dip and instead are looking to capitalize on a surging market price. Martinez’ Prediction Strike price has increased nearly 15% since Opening Day (from $9.02 to $10.62) and will only continue to grow as he grows into his role in the heart of this dangerous Dodgers offense. Martinez’s 97.9 average exit velocity ranks second in baseball behind only Matt Chapman, yet he has only one home run to show for it through his first 13 games. His Statcast hard hit rate is fifth in MLB (63.6%) and if you’ve watched these Dodger games like I have (or looked at spray charts), you’ve noticed he’s had some close calls and balls hit to the wall. His 12.1% barrel rate is right in line with his last four seasons and his 34% strikeout rate isn’t anything to worry about considering he’s a 24% career guy. Martinez has hit left-handed pitching incredibly well over the course of his career (.303 AVG, .398 wOBA, .272 ISO, 152 wRC+) and will get to face two lefties this weekend (Justin Steele, Drew Smyly) when the Cubs come to town. But this is more than just about this weekend. Martinez has flashed prodigious power, and it’s only a matter of time before it begins to reflect in box scores.
