On The Bump - MLB DFS Pitching Primer (8/22)

There are 10 games on the MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, with both beginning at 7 p.m. ET. There are not a lot of top-end pitchers on the board Saturday, but the slate does feature one of my favorite arms in baseball — someone who has yet to allow more than three runs in 20 plus major league outings.

The slate also features several mid-priced pitchers which present an opportunity for you to spend up on bats with several high team-implied totals around the diamond. The slate also features one struggling arm who has won a lot of people money before in the past. Is it right to be completely out on Matthew Boyd or is there reason to get involved when the potential ownership is at an all-time low?

I’ll first identify the pitchers who stand out given their matchups, price tag and Vegas lines, among others various factors. I’ll pick my favorite arms to roster for tournaments and cash, seek out any value so we can get a little weird with our lineups and then I’ll share who I’m fading. So with that out of the way, let’s get to it.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks for Aug. 22

At first glance:

Zack Wheeler @ ATL
Zac Gallen vs. SFG
Dustin May vs. COL
Kyle Hendricks vs. CWS
Justus Sheffield vs. TEX
Randy Dobnak @ KC
Matthew Boyd @ CLE
Triston McKenzie vs. DET

Fades

Kyle Hendricks vs. CWS

Hendricks is a decent real-life pitcher, but he’s never really an option for me outside of cash and I don’t love the spot here. He keeps the walks to a minimum (three in 32.2 IP) and he’ll eat up some innings, but he won’t provide buyers with a lot of strikeouts. Plus, this White Sox team is absolutely feeling it as they enter with the fourth-best wOBA in baseball. Can’t do it, won’t do it. A secondary arm on DK is the only way I’d consider it, but I’m staying away.

Picks

Zac Gallen @ SFG

I have this crazy obsession with Gallen. If you watched me on Between the Lines a couple weeks back, you saw I wasn’t afraid to roll him out against the heavy-hitting Houston Astros. Gallen has allowed three or fewer runs in all 20 of his MLB starts and two or fewer in 16 of those outings. He’s rocking a 2.40 ERA, 30.3 K%, 23.5 K-BB% and a 13 SwStr% over his 30 innings this season in which he’s pitched against the A’s, Astros, Dodgers, Padres and the Rockies at Coors Field. He gave up two or fewer runs in all those outings and gets his easiest test yet (I know, SF has been decent). Gallen’s ownership will be extremely high, but I don’t know how you fade him. He has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the board and it’s not even close. The fact he’s not the most expensive arm on DK is mind-boggling.

Zack Wheeler @ ATL

Despite a 3-0 record and a 2.81 ERA (4.44 xFIP), Wheeler hasn’t been all that impressive in his 25.2 innings with the Phillies. He’s limited the walks (6) and he’s keeping the ball on the ground (52%), but he’s giving up a lot of contact (81%) and he’s not missing many bats (12 K). He was never a huge strikeout pitcher, but his 4.21 K/9 and sub 10 SwSt% are slightly concerning. It’ll likely normalize to around the 8 K/9 mark, but I need to see him miss a few more bats before I spend top dollar. Not only is his contact percentage a career high, his line drive rate is as well (25%). How about the Braves’ 26.6 K% you ask? Well, I’m not fading him. He’s just not my favorite choice.

Dustin May vs. COL

May checks out to be one of the better values on FanDuel, despite an 83% contact rate. May has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his five outings, but he has an 83% contact rate and lowly 8.2 SwStr%. The 7.89 K/9 over 58.2 innings is only decent, but his 1.53 BB/9 is workable. May has had solid command for most of his minor league career and he does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. This spot isn’t awful either as the Rockies enter with the lowest projected run total on the slate at 3.5. That’s because they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate on the road and a league-worst wOBA away from Coors Field. They are also much worse against RHP compared to LHP.

Randy Dobnak vs. KC

So last week I got all worked up about Dobnak. I thought he was a potential option for your lineups, a nice salary saver with a chance at a dub if he could get through five innings with that Minny offense backing him up. He wasn’t awful and he did get the win — his fourth of the season — en route to 15.6 DraftKings points, but you want to talk about a lack of strikeouts. Like Wheeler, Dobnak is giving up a ton of contact (80%), but he’s rocking a 65 GB% (second-highest).

Dobnak surprisingly allowed two home runs over 5.1 innings against the Royals, but that’s pretty much all he surrendered. He gave up three hits but only struck out three — he only has 14 punchouts through 25.1 innings. The Twins’ pitcher has yet to allow more than four hits in a start and his 1.42 ERA is impressive, but a 94% strand rate with that low of a strikeout rate is the reason he has a 4.10 xFIP. There could be a bit of regression along the way, despite a solid showing in 53.2 career innings: 1.51 ERA, 58 GB%, 1.84 BB/9 and 3 HR. You’d like to see him improve on his 6.20 K/9, but he’s in play again with his Twins entering as one of the biggest favorites on the board.

Justus Sheffield vs. TEX

This is all about the matchup against the Rangers. Sheffield has seen his K-rate decrease in his 19.2 innings this season (8.24 K/9) compared to last season (9.25) over 36 innings, but his command has been better. Even still, a 3.20 BB/9 is nothing to get excited over, but it’s at least not pushing five per. Sheffield has an appealing 11.4 SwStr% for his career and the Rangers have the second-lowest wOBA in the league at .285.

Triston McKenzie vs. DET

Look, McKenzie may only get to 80 pitchers or so but to debut against the lowly Tigers is the best you could ask for. Detroit enters with a league-worst 28 K%. I think he’s someone we’ll be talking about eventually, but there’s a lot of risk here and I’m about to get nuts in this CLE/DET matchup.

Let’s get nuts:

Matthew Boyd @ CLE

I’ve always thought Boyd was a little overrated. Sure, he has swing-and-miss stuff (12.6 SwStr%, 14.0 last season), but he walks too many batters and his 45 FB% for his career has gotten him into a ton of trouble. Boyd has already served up eight homers and 25 runs on 34 hits in just 23.1 innings. The buy-low window for MLB teams is as open as it’ll ever be and the opportunity to own him today with a low ownership is also wide open. Nobody will be on him and I can’t say I blame people. I know he can strikeout 7-9 batters in a game and come away with a tournament winning performance though. We’ve seen it. We just haven’t seen it this season. It’s better to get in on it now while everyone is out. That’s always been my strategy in DFS. You want an edge? Grab a high-upside risky player when his stock is down. This isn’t a bad spot either as Cleveland enters with a league-worst .255 wOBA and 56 wRC+ vs. LHP. GPP only.