Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to On the Bump, our MLB DFS pitching primer. This article aims to not only produce transparent picks for MLB DFS, but to teach my process of playing pitchers in MLB DFS. Each weekday, I will go through my entire process of selecting pitchers for the MLB DFS slate at hand. Some at first glance, and some with in depth research. You will learn why I like certain pitchers, why I do not, and why I prefer some pitchers for cash games and others for tournaments.
For those unfamiliar, there is a vetting process that pitchers go through in this column, as we move through the processes to find who the plays are for a given slate. These steps are as follows:
1. Pitchers to vet — We go through which pitchers stick out and are worth looking into for the slate at hand based on various factors.
2. Matchups/pitch data/analysis — Dive into each pitcher's matchup for the given day, and ensure the matchup is worth keeping the pitcher for the slate at hand. After matchups, the science of pitch data is discussed. This will show whether a pitcher is in a good spot based on pitch data against the opposing team. Then, we analyze the pitcher for the given slate.
3. Cash or GPP — After the research is done, we will decide which pitchers to play on which sites, and in which formats.
Let's get into it.
Pitchers to vet
(These are pitchers that stand out at first glance based on matchup, run totals and Vegas lines)
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (@ Washington)
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners (vs. Texas)
Jake Odorizzi, Houston Astros (@ Cleveland)
Pitch data/analysis/matchup
Notes: We have a surprisingly small slate on Saturday, with limited pitching options. I feel this is a slate to prioritize stacks over pitching.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (@ Washington)
It’s more of a bump for Kershaw if Trea Turner remains out Saturday. Kershaw has the best whiff rate on the slate at 16.6% and 6.89 K/BB. My worry is the power from Washington's right-handed batters, who do have a 46% hard contact and .352 wOBA.
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners (vs. Texas)
Gonzales has put together a respectable five-game stretch, averaging 8.17 K/9 and a 1.38 WHIP over 25.1 innings pitched. He has given up runs, so don't expect him to last six innings free and clear. He has pitched better at home since 2019, with a 3.81 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The positives in this matchup are a Texas team striking out over 26% of the time against lefties and a ground ball rate over 50%.
Jake Odorizzi, Houston Astros (@ Cleveland)
José Ramírez was a late scratch Friday night, and it would be a massive bump for Odorizzi if he's out again Saturday. Odorizzi has been a nice spark for this Houston rotation, putting together a 1.42 ERA, 9.95 K/9 and 3.32 H/9 over his last four starts. My only issue with him right now is his depth into games, not pitching into the sixth inning in any game this year.
Cash/GPP
Cash arms
On a slate with a lot of volatility, the safest option is rolling out Kershaw as your cash game pitcher for both sites. There is risk, but Kershaw offers the safest floor of the slate.
GPP arms
I'm locking in Odorizzi as my SP1 on both sites. The upside is limited with his depth into later innings, but I do like the matchup even if José Ramírez is in the lineup. Mixing in Kershaw in your lineup is probably the safest option, but I'm also fine with rolling out a mix of Gonzalez and Odorizzi on DK.
