Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to On the Bump, our MLB DFS pitching primer. This article aims to not only produce transparent picks for MLB DFS, but to teach my process of playing pitchers in MLB DFS. Each weekday, I will go through my entire process of selecting pitchers for the MLB DFS slate at hand. Some at first glance, and some with in depth research. You will learn why I like certain pitchers, why I do not, and why I prefer some pitchers for cash games and others for tournaments.
For those unfamiliar, there is a vetting process that pitchers go through in this column, as we move through the processes to find who the plays are for a given slate. These steps are as follows:
1. Pitchers to vet — We go through which pitchers stick out and are worth looking into for the slate at hand based on various factors.
2. Matchups/pitch data/analysis — Dive into each pitcher's matchup for the given day, and ensure the matchup is worth keeping the pitcher for the slate at hand. After matchups, the science of pitch data is discussed. This will show whether a pitcher is in a good spot based on pitch data against the opposing team. Then, we analyze the pitcher for the given slate.
3. Cash or GPP — After the research is done, we will decide which pitchers to play on which sites, and in which formats.
Let's get into it.
Pitchers to vet
(These are pitchers that stand out at first glance based on matchup, run totals and Vegas lines)
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (@ Detroit)
Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros (@ Cleveland)
Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers (@ Seattle)
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Milwaukee)
Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels (vs. Baltimore)
Pitch data/analysis/matchup
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (@ Detroit)
Lynn has struggled over his last three starts but comes into Detroit with a positive matchup with nice upside. Lynn should get back on track against the same lineup he struck out six times while allowing 1 earned run in 6 innings five starts ago. He's has one of the best metrics on the slate with a 10.3 K/9 and 3.91 K/BB.
Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros (@ Cleveland)
I've really liked McCullers on the road this year. He seems much more aggressive, pitching to contact on the road, which has also helped him generate more swing-and-miss opportunities. Away from Minute Maid Park, McCullers owns a respectable 2.86 ERA while also averaging 12 K/9. Those numbers really jump off the page for me, but I do fear his inconsistency staying in the strike zone does hurt his upside. McCullers averages 5.1 walks per nine on the road and also a 2.09 K/BB.
Kyle Gibson, Texas Rangers (@ Seattle)
I'm going to categorize Gibson as more of a safer option Friday than a high-upside arm. Gibson has done a great job since his Opening Day blowup, while also reaching the sixth inning in all but three starts this season. The Mariners don’t have power appeal in their lineup, considering they're striking out 25% of the time with a 37% hard contact on the year. Gibson should continue to induce ground balls near his season average of 51.4%.
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Milwaukee)
Oh JT, one of my favorite underowned arms on the slate. Milwaukee's hottest hitter, Kolten Wong, left Thursday's game after aggravating his calf injury, which bumps Brubaker in this matchup. He's been one of the better groundball pitchers with a 49% rate and 12.1% whiff rate. Milwaukee is striking out 26% of the time, while also hitting the ball on the ground 43% of the time. If you want to fit high-priced bats Friday, this is your pitcher.
Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels (vs. Baltimore)
Canning is another value arm I like for GPPs Friday. His strikeout rate is among the top for the slate at 24.9%, while his contact rate is the best on the slate at 67.3%. He's also generating an impressive 15.1% whiff rate, so the upside for strikeouts is definitely there. He's also pitching at home, which has been good to pitchers.
Cash/GPP
Cash arms
I'm looking at safe options like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson for cash games. If I had to choose from either, Gibson would be my first choice based on salary savings and matchup.
GPP arms
I love the matchup for JT Brubaker, especially the salary savings we get on both sites. As far as my top option, that would go to Lance McCullers Jr. and his 12 K/9.
Lance McCullers Jr.
JT Brubaker
Lance Lynn
Kyle Gibson
Griffin Canning
