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MLB Prop Tracker (May 4)

MLB Bets

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Matt Kupferle

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Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.

Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.

Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)

Look, I know we have been burned by this one in the past. I totally get it. But I think there are some serious reasons to believe that Pivetta is legit so far in 2021. He’s averaging nearly a strikeout per inning, and Tuesday’s matchup truly couldn’t get any better with the Detroit Tigers as his opponent. The Tigers are a truly putrid offense, leading the league with a 30.9% strikeout rate — that’s right, three of every 10 hitters are striking out. Woof. Pair that with a terrible .261 wOBA and .141 ISO, and Pivetta makes for a rock star option.

J.A. Happ Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+122, FanDuel)

One of the season’s bright spots so far this season has been the veterans resurrecting their career — Happ has been truly outstanding so far this season. With 2 wins on the year and a sparkling 1.96 ERA, Happ puts that unblemished record on the line against the Rangers. And the best part? Kenta Maeda bounced back with 13 swings and misses on 92 pitches (14% swinging-strike rate) Monday, and that looks like Happ could smash a Rangers team that has whiffed at a rate of 28.4%. 

Domingo Germán Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110, DraftKings)

Coming back from a quick stint at the alternate site, Germán has been outstanding in back-to-back starts against the Indians and the Orioles. Despite twirling all those scoreless innings, Germán has whiffed only six batters in each start against some strikeout happy squads. Tuesday night, he faces the Astros — who have whiffed the least in the entire league (18.9%). Betting unders isn’t the most fun, but this one could be juicy. 

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