MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
White Sox F5 (-128, DraftKings)
On paper, this is one of the best matchups of the day — with Casey Mize rocking a 3.94 xFIP in the month of May, he's certainly taken a big step forward in terms of growth. That said — he's still not providing a ton of swing-and-miss value (only 20.3%), and the White Sox are crushing at the dish (second-best league wOBA).
Adam Wainwright Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128, BetMGM)
I know that Wainwright is being lauded for a career renaissance of sorts, but there's some major concerns here. On a hot and sticky day in St. Louis, facing a Reds offense that clocks in fifth in team wOBA with a modest 22.8% strikeout rate, the veteran hurler may be in trouble.
Cubs-Giants Over 8.0 runs (-114, DraftKings)
There must be something that I am not seeing here — these are two offenses that rank in the top-10 of all of baseball, and Zach Davies owns the dubious distinction of having nearly a flat strikeout (12.8%) to walk (11.1%) rate. That's not good, Bob. Add in an 11 MPH wind blowing out, and this could be a lot of runs.
