Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Last time I hopped on here, we talked about the process and a couple prop plays I liked based off of the projections we have on both FTNBets and FTNDaily.
Germán Márquez was scratched and pitched the next day, so one of the two was off the board. It happens sometimes. I could not even play it the next day because the rain out bumped it to a seven-inning game and obviously that screwed up the odds and potential upside for the strikeouts.
Thursday we have a couple more I am interested in, so let’s walk through the process and the plays.
Strikeout prop
Yu Darvish (SDP) over 6.5 strikeouts
Most books have this number at 5.5 for Yu Darvish for like -140 juice. Check that out on our Prop Shop to see all the prices. FD has it bumped up to +128 for 6.5. Our projection is for 7.2 today, so we have a slight edge. If this was even money or even +110, I would be hesitant. The +128 is just too good of a value to pass up here.
Zac Gallen (ARI) over 5.5 strikeouts
(-110, BetMGM)
This is an interesting one today. Our projection at FTNDaily and FTNBets has Zac Gallen in the strikeout model is for 7.2 in this one. FD has 6.5 for over +140. I’m not that confident, but I do love the over 5.5. We need 6 to cash that one and project him for 7.2, which gives us a big margin of error.
Home run prop
Remember, you can also go check for HR props by using the ownership tab on FTNDaily to check for HR%. The listed percentages are our projections, and you can translate that into odds by plugging the percentage into the probability section of our odds calculator on FTNBets. If the listed odds are lower than what you can get on the books, that is worth a bet. The bigger the difference, the bigger the bet should be. Here is what I’m seeing for Thursday:
Franmil Reyes (CLE) to hit a HR
(+280, PointsBet)
If you look at our ownership tab on FTNDaily, you will see one of the columns under the projections is HR%. Franmil Reyes tops the chart Thursday with a 30.86% chance to hit a HR. Following the advice from above, I plugged 30.86 into the probability section of the odds calculator and the implied value is +224. If we can find a number above +224, that is value. The number we have offered to us on PointsBet is +280, the best price of any book in the New Jersey market Thursday, which is where I played this. That +280 implies a 26.32% probability, which gives you a 4.5% edge based on our projections.
