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MLB Prop Tracker (April 27)

MLB Bets

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Matt Kupferle

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Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyzes the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.

Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.

Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128, BetMGM)

While there's plenty of Indians hurlers who have been overhyped this season (like Zach Plesac), Civale is one I truly think has the potential to be a star. For starters, this number is just too low — Civale has struck out six in three of his four turns this year, and the Twins, are striking out at a 24.5% clip. Plesac was not great Monday, but expect Civale to step up. 

Walker Buehler Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135, BetMGM)

Look, you won't find a bigger Walker Buehler stan than me. I think the dude is a true superstar, and the Dodgers have five absolute studs in that rotation. But this Reds offense Buehler locks horns with Tuesday is really talented — they have logged a .335 wOBA this season, and their strikeout rate of 23.7% is one of the best in baseball (eighth-toughest). Buehler has logged only four whiffs in three of his outings this season, and I think the under is definitely in play.

Carlos Martínez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, SugarHouse)

If this line gives you any indication on how oddsmakers feel right now, FanDuel posted this line, but under 5.5 strikeouts, not 4.5. I think that line is way, way too high, and here's why. First and foremost, the Cardinals’ mercurial starter has been bad. He did lock in against Max Scherzer in a travel day game last Thursday, but that was the best outing of 2021 for Martínez — and it came with three strikeouts. Tonight, he will face a potent Phillies offense that is prone to the whiff (26.6% strikeout rate), but they are also a tough out (.310 wOBA). I don't believe in Martínez and his stuff.

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