Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Tuesday in the MLB playoffs, giving us a pair of NLDS Series matchups from which to pick our best bets of the day.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Same Game Parlay (-136, ESPNBet)
- Walker Buehler Under 4.5 Strikeouts
- Walker Buehler to Record a Win? — No
- Luis Arraez Over 0.5 Hits
I’m not loving much on the board Tuesday. I have a hard time giving an impartial play in the Mets/Phillies game, and most of the potential plays I liked in the late game have been steamed out of my preferred price range. So, I’m going to do something I’ve rarely done all season and build a same-game parlay.
Walker Buehler will take the bump for the Dodgers in Game 3, and I’m very curious to see what type of leash he has. With the off day, in a situation where the loser will face elimination Wednesday, I have to believe Buehler won’t be given much room for error. He did spin five innings of one run ball Sept. 26 when the two teams met in Los Angeles. Buehler also managed just one strikeout on just three whiffs across 28 swings (11% whiff rate). The Padres are well known for being a high contact lineup, striking out just 19% of the time versus right-handed pitching since Sept. 1 (17.8% for the season, lowest in MLB). Buehler struck out five or more batters in just five of his 16 starts this season, so I have a hard time believing he suddenly finds the swing-and-miss in his stuff against this Padres lineup. I additionally have a hard time believing he can put himself in line for a win, given his outs recorded is lined at 13.5.
So, that leaves us with Luis Arraez, who is in the -350 range to record a hit this evening. For me, the two Buehler legs are as close to free squares as it gets, so we’re saving over $2 on Arraez to simply record a hit, when he should see at worst, four plate appearances, with a pretty decent shot at seeing a fifth, given he bats atop the Padres lineup. The three-time defending batting champion has recorded a hit in all four of his 2024 postseason games. Left-handed batters own a .296 average off Buehler in 2024 (.302 away from Dodger Stadium), while Arraez is hitting right-handed pitching at a .333 clip.
