MLB Best Bets – Free (Monday 9/23)

We pushed our writeup record to 12-3 thanks to the Phillies beating the Brewers last week. We’ve been running so well that I wish this wasn’t the final week of the MLB regular season. But we found an edge on Monday slate, despite only four games. So let’s get right into it.

San Francisco Giants (+140) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-170)

Total 9 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Giants rookie right-hander Hayden Birdsong makes his 15th start of the 2024 season tonight in Arizona. It hasn’t been smooth for Birdsong. His lowest run indicator is his xFIP at 4.47, while the rest sit above 4.50 with a 4.74 ERA, 4.75 xERA, a 4.94 FIP and a SIERA of 4.54. The 23-year-old has a massive issue with walks, as his BB rate sits in the first percentile, as does his hard-hit rate. The one thing the righty has done well is get strikeouts, as his 26% K rate ranks in the 72nd percentile. The bad news for the rookie is he’s facing one of the better right-handed hitting teams in baseball that also doesn’t strike out much. The D-backs bats have the second-lowest whiff percentage, along with the fifth-lowest chase percentage.

At the plate, only two teams have a better wRC+ than the Dbacks’ 131 over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching. They sit first in home runs and third in runs scored over that period. Overall, nobody averages more runs per game than Arizona at 5.52 – they’ve been even better at home, scoring 5.76 runs per game at Chase Field.

The Giants bullpen has been solid in 2024, so you could make a case for the D-backs’ first five team total instead. But I’m going with the full game total. We should be good as long as we put up a crooked number early against the rookie. Arizona should win this one straight up.

The FTN MLB Model also likes Arizona to win tonight 4.8- 3.8