Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 9/17)

We fell one Cristopher Sánchez strikeout short from pushing our writeup record to 12-2 last time out. Instead we sit at 11-3 as the end of the MLB regular season draws near. Even for a high-volume bettor like me, the mid- to late-September MLB slates don’t offer much value. Most of the must-bet edges, especially props, are usually gone by early afternoon, but I did find a couple money lines and a total to bet.

We’ll be backing a road favorite and the likely NL Cy Young runner-up, Zack Wheeler and the Phillies, as they visit the Milwaukee Brewers.

Philadelphia Phillies (-135) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+110)

Total 7.5 (BetMGM)

At 34 years old, Zack Wheeler has posted another elite season through 179.2 innings. Wheeler sits top five in the majors in ERA, xERA and top-10 in FIP, K%, K-BB% and SIERA. In his 10th MLB season, the righty has posted a career-best zone-contact percentage and second-highest swinging-strike percentage. Not only has Wheeler shown excellent swing and miss stuff, he’s also been great at inducing weak contact with a hard-hit percentage in the 86th percentile.

Over the last two weeks the Brewers offense sits in the middle of the pack in a number of categories, including wRC+. Milwaukee has posted a 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in that span, which ranks 14th.

The Phillies offense has the third-best wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching over the last two weeks at 132. Nobody has scored more runs over that span than Philly, and only the Angels have hit more home runs.

The Phillies face Frankie Montas, who has been better since getting traded to the Brewers. For the season, Montas’ ERA, xERA, SIERA and FIP are all in the 4.40s. In eight starts with the Brewers, the 31-year-old has posted a 3.40 ERA, 3.30 FIP and 3.85 SIERA. Montas hasn’t faced the toughest lineups lately, so this will be a step up in competition for the right-hander. He has had trouble with left-handed hitters this season. They’ve posted a 5.90 FIP and have slashed .269/.365/.470 against him. He’s been more effective against lefties since joining the Brewers, but he still has a 4.62 FIP, which is good news for Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh.

Both bullpens have been great lately and are fairly well rested. We give the edge to the Brewers pen, but Wheeler should be able to pitch deep into this one and get us to the high-leverage Philly arms.

The FTN MLB Model also likes the Phillies in this one, as it has them winning 4.3 to 3.4, good enough for a 4.08% edge.