MLB Best Bets – Free (Monday 8/26)

My MLB articles have been on a roll this season. We’re 10-2 on writeups after our same game parlay cashed thanks to Sonny Gray and the Cards. We’re running it back with another parlay for Monday’s best bet but instead of a SGP we’re rolling with a strikeout prop parlay. Not to oversimplify things, but we’re attacking two teams that rank near the top of the league in terms of lack of discipline and strikeouts.

Miami Marlins (-110) @ Colorado Rockies (-110)

(Total 10.5, Caesars)

Tampa Bay Rays (+115) @ Seattle Mariners (+135)

(Total 7.5, Caesars)

Ryan Pepiot hasn’t gone over five punchouts in his last three games, but that is due more to facing more disciplined teams than he’ll see Monday evening in Seattle. Despite not racking up the K’s, he’s posted a 14.7% swinging-strike percentage and 78.5% zone-contact percentage. Both marks are better than his season totals, which is impressive given his 12.5% SwStr% is a career best. The 27-year-old’s two best strikeout pitches are his fastball and his changeup. Pep throws his fastball 50.5% of the time, and it carries a 29.8 K%. The Mariners have the third-highest K% against fastballs this season at 28.1%, their 25.3% whiff% is also the third-highest. The right-hander’s second-best punchout pitch is his changeup that he features 22.5% of the time, his second-most thrown pitch. It carries a 29% K% and the M’s have the highest K% at 28.6% and fourth-highest whiff% at 34.9% against changeups. 

Mariners vs. Right-Handed Pitching:

• Season: 28.0% (Highest in MLB)
• Last 14 days: 23.7% (10th highest)
• Second-lowest zone-contact in baseball: 79.4%
• Second-lowest chase contact%: 50.2%
• Fourth-highest swinging-strike % in MLB: 12.2%

The FTN MLB Model projects Ryan Pepiot for 6.49 strikeouts against the Mariners Monday night:

I usually stick to team total and full game overs in Coors, but Edward Cabrera has had some success with his pitch mix in Denver. He has 15 strikeouts in 12 innings at Coors, for a 30.6% K%. The 26-year-old’s two best strikeout pitches are his changeup that he throws 37% of the time and his curveball, which he features 23% of the time. The Rockies have the eighth-highest K% vs changeups this season at 23.8% and the second-highest whiff% at 36.3%. That should play right into Cabrera’s repertoire as his change has a 27.5% K% and 32.9% whiff%. Cabrera’s second-best K pitch is his curveball that carries a 35.3% K% and 39.4% whiff%. You guessed it, the Rockies have had trouble with Uncle Charlies this year. Nobody in the Show has a higher K% or whiff% vs curveballs this season than the Rockies, at 38.8% and 40.3% respectively.

Rockies vs. Right-Handed Pitching:

• Season: 25.8% (second highest in MLB)
• Last 14 days: 28.5% (third highest) 
• Fifth-lowest zone-contact in baseball 80.0%
• Second-highest chase% 31.8% & lowest chase contact% 48.8%
• Highest swinging-strike % in MLB: 13.9%

The FTN MLB Model projects Edward Cabrera for 5.59 strikeouts against the Rockies:

Both Cabrera and Pepiot have a good shot at going over their baseline prop but I felt better pairing them together. Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available number. 

Best Bet

Edward Cabrera 5+ K’s/Ryan Pepiot 6+ K’s (-123)