Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 8/6)

We’re 9-2 on article plays after the Royals got us to the window Monday night. Let’s switch it up a bit Tuesday and go with a same game parlay in hopes of getting our 10th win of the season. 

Tampa Bay Rays (+130) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-155)

(Total 7.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We’re fading one of my favorite MLB players as he makes his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. Rays lefty Jeffrey Spring was a cash cow in the K market for us before blowing out his elbow. I hate to go after one of my guys, but it’s clear he isn’t in good form quite yet. Facing a bottom dweller in his return, Springs allowed two runs in less than four innings to the Marlins. The southpaw posted a single digit swinging-strike percentage against a team that isn’t great at making contact. His zone-contact percentage was over 90% against Miami, which is concerning given his career mark is below 79%. Not only did Springs have trouble missing bats but the Marlins made good contact when they connected with a 14.3% barrel%. The Rays bullpen will have to cover 4 or 5 innings, but they’ve been great lately, so we’ll need to get to Springs in this one. 

Over the last month the Cards have been around the middle of the pack when it comes to facing lefties, but they’re top 10 in runs scored and they have their ace on the mound. 

To reduce the juice some, we’ll pair the Cardinals moneyline with a teased-down strikeout prop. Sonny Gray has a 2.94 SIERA through 118.2 innings this season. His 30.8% K% and 12.8% swinging-strike percentage is the best of his career. Sonny has been dominant despite his 3.72 ERA. Over the last 14 days, Tampa has the third-highest K% against right-handed pitchers at 27.2%. 

The FTN MLB Model likes the Cards in this one as it has them winning 4 to 3.5: 

The FTN MLB Prop Tool also loves Sonny to go over his K prop of 6.5. It has the righty projected for 8.46 punchouts, which equates to a 20.43% edge.

I don’t blame you if you just want to play Gray’s strikeout prop straight, but I think the Cardinals get it done. Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available number. 

Best Bet

Cardinals ML/Sonny Gray 6+ K’s (+114, DraftKings Sportsbook)