MLB Best Bets – Free (Friday 10/11)

We have NL West divisional rivals facing off with their seasons on the line in the National League Division Series Friday night. The San Diego Padres have traveled to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers for a decisive Game 5. I’ll be backing the Padres’ biggest star to shine bright in their most crucial game of the season.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases

Tatis has been stunning for San Diego this postseason. He enters Friday hitting .500 with 4 HR, 7 RBIs and a 1.759 OPS in 22 at-bats in these playoffs. Tatis ended the season on fire at the plate, and he’s carried that momentum over. Over the last 30 days, against right-handed pitching, Tatis has a .324 AVG, .423 ISO, 96.1 exit velocity, 17 XBH and 9 HR. Dodger Stadium has seemed like a second home to Tatis in his career — in 36 games in Chavez Ravine, Tatis has posted a .330 AVG with 14 HR.

Tatis has had at least two total bases in six straight games this postseason, and 15 of his last 20 games overall. Tatis has also covered this number in 18 of his previous 28 games against the Dodgers and 10 of his last 15 games in Dodger Stadium.

Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Pitch Mix to RHB:

• Splitter — .300 AVG, 1 2B, .400 SLG
• Fastball — .333 AVG, 8 HR, .762 SLG
• Slider — .365 AVG, 4 HR, .698 SLG
• Sinker — .258 AVG, 4 HR, .438 SLG
• Curveball — .182 AVG, 1 HR, .455 SLG

Best Bets

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, BetMGM), 1U
Fernando Tatis Jr. 4+ Total Bases (+320, Bet365), 0.50U