MLB Best Bets for Wednesday (9/8)

And just like that, we’re up to six wins in a row for the MLB Best Bets column. We were on both the F5 under and the full-game under in the Cincinnati vs. Chicago game and despite a three-run first inning and a three-run sixth, we were still able to cash both bets. Not for the faint of heart, but hey, a win is a win.

We’ve been building some nice profits lately, so let’s look to keep making our money work for us and reinvest them into Wednesday’s slate.

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati -114, Unibet & SugarHouse; Chicago +105, Caesars Sportsbook & BetAmerica

After splitting the first two games of the series, Cincinnati and Chicago will mee once more to decide the series winner. Right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez will take the mound for Cincinnati to square off against Chicago’s Alec Mills.

Gutierrez is having a fairly average year, at least from an ERA standpoint, for Cincinnati putting up a 4.17 ERA through 18 starts, but with a much higher 5.07 FIP. Since he does pitch in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the league, his road splits are certainly better where he’s held opposing hitters to just a .302 wOBA with a still mediocre 4.52 FIP. Over his last several starts, though, it appears Gutierrez has settled into a nice groove. He was hit hard to begin the year with a 4.97 ERA and 5.93 FIP through his first 10 starts, but since then he’s settled down quite nicely with a 3.20 ERA and 4.03 FIP over his last eight. His main weapons are a four-seam/slider combo that he relies on about 70% of the time, which has proven to give Chicago fits already this year as he’s allowed just three earned runs and seven hits through 11.1 innings at Wrigley this season. I’m looking for Gutierrez’ road success to continue in this matchup.

Cincinnati has been an intimidating offensive presence at times, but it really depends which split you get them in. I mentioned in the last article that they are absolutely beasts at home, but on the road they’re almost a bottom-10 offense with just a .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+. While they usually rank well above average against righties overall, again once you get them on the road racing a right-hander they sink down to just below-average checking in with a .319 wOBA and 98 wRC+. Great American Ballpark is definitely a hitter’s paradise, but it seems as though Cincinnati has completely forgotten how to hit away from their oasis. They’ve been a bottom-10 offense over the last two weeks, putting up marks barely better than Kansas City at a .301 wOBA and 85 wRC+ and while bad luck may be slightly involved, a .285 BABIP isn’t low enough to chalk it all up to luck. Cincinnati is just flat out playing bad offensively recently and runs could be hard to come by again here.

Alec Mills was a home-run factory last year, but he has actually had an OK season up to this point with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.19 FIP – leaps and bounds better than his 5.44 FIP in 2020. Like his teammate Kyle Hendricks, he’s the epitome of a soft-tosser with his fastball velocity ranking in the slowest-7% of the league. For Mills, however, the lack of speed brings with it some deception as he has an elite barrel% at 4.5%, ranking in the top-8% of major league pitching. Since being put back into a starting role June 15, Mills has been on an extremely impressive 14-start streak with a 3.64 ERA and 3.63 FIP over that span and that’s including a four inning, seven earned run performances against Kansas City. Taking that outlier out, Mills hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his other 13 starts and has an ERA closer to 3.04 with a 3.58 FIP. He’s come a long way since his horrible 2020 season and he gets the luxury of facing a sub-par road offense. Look for Mills to keep rolling against Cincinnati.

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Chicago’s replacements apparently didn’t get the memo that they were supposed to be bad once they sold off their major parts at the deadline. While they aren’t elite numbers, they’ve been able to put up middle-of-the-pack numbers in both wOBA (.323) and wRC+ (102) over the last 30 days, which is far more than anyone would’ve expected from this group. For as good as they have been playing, it does seem like good fortune is playing a pretty big role. They’re BABIP is bordering on the .330 range with a HR/FB ratio leading the league at over 18%, neither of which are sustainable for this group. They’ve been a nice underdog story lately with how they’ve been hitting, but good luck can only last for so long and the decline should be starting anytime now.

The pick

Not only are we sticking with totals, but we’re going back to well for the same exact matchup. The total here is set at 9, the wind is expected to be howling in at higher than 10 mph, and the only side that’s a real offensive threat has horrible road splits. This game fits the Wrigley Field under prerequisites and the splits support the bet as well. u9 +100BetMGM