MLB Best Bets for Monday (9/6)

That’s four wins in a row now four our MLB best bets after Oakland and Toronto erupted for eight runs in the first five innings to cash our F5 over Sunday. To be clearer, Toronto erupted for eight runs in the first five innings while Oakland chipped in exactly zero, but that’s the beauty of totals — you don’t necessarily need to be on the right team to still cash.

Our winning streak gives us some profits to reinvest into this Labor Day slate with nonstop MLB action from 1:05 p.m. ET until the 9:07 p.m. showdown between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. A day off from work and a full day of MLB betting — could there be a better way to spend your Labor Day?

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati -145, Caesars Sportsbook; Chicago +135 Caesars Sportsbook & BetAmerica

Cincinnati will head to Chicago to kick off a three-game series in what will be their first of nine straight games against NL Central foes. Right-hander Sonny Gray will take the bump for Cincinnati, as Chicago sends out southpaw Justin Steele.

Gray hasn’t made a ton of headlines this season, but has very quietly put up a good season so far with a 3.89 ERA and 3.83 FIP over 21 starts and 108.2 innings. He’s had some home struggles, but that can be expected with a home field being one of the best run-scoring environments in the majors, but on the road he’s bee absolutely lights out. He’s held opposing hitters to just a .282 wOBA in their home parks while pitching to the tune of a 2.98 FIP. St. Louis had touched him up for eight earned runs back on 7/25, but since then he’s been on a seven-start streak going 5-0 with a 2.79 ERA and a 3.45 FIP, while facing five lineups that are at least in the hunt for a playoff spot. With Chicago looking like a shell of itself since the Anthony Rizzo–Kris Bryant–Javier Báez days, I’m looking for Gray to continue his success in this one.

Cincinnati’s lineup has been a top-10 unit overall this season with a .329 wOBA and 102 wRC+, but man do they have some horrible splits, all of which they’re on the bad side of in this matchup. They’re a top-5 squad facing right-handed pitching with a .337 wOBA and 108 wRC+, but against lefties they plummet all the way down to 28th with a .303 wOBA and 86 wRC+. They’ve been one of the better home teams, checking in with top-10 marks with a .345 wOBA and 110 wRC+, but then on the road the fall down to .312 wOBA and 94 wRC+ ranking just 18th. To make matters worse, they’re still without Jesse Winker and Joey Votto looks to be sitting this one out as well. For as intimidating as a group this offense can be at home and against righties, it looks like this game could be the perfect combination of their vulnerabilities.

Rookie starter Justin Steele hasn’t exactly shattered any records to begin his career, but he has gotten off to a fairly successful start with a 3.48 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP over 31 innings. He’s been able to hold opposing hitters to just a 5.1% barrel rate and has shown the ability to limit hard contact with just a 36.7% hard hit rate. What has hurt him the most so far has been the long ball. He’s bit hit pretty hard by some bad luck in the HR/FB department with a 26.1% HR/FB on the young season, but with just a 29.9% FB% overall those numbers are sure to come down and normalize in a hurry. He gets the luxury of pitching in his home park where he has held hitters to just a .289 wOBA and also is facing an offensive group that struggles in every split they’re handed in this game. Steele was able to shutout a good Minnesota lineup over five innings in his last start and I have a feeling he could have another good start against Cincinnati.

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Chicago has shockingly had one of the best offenses over the past 14 days with top-three marks in wOBA (.356) and wRC+ (123) and the past seven days with equivalent marks in wOBA (.356) and wRC+ (123). What these numbers don’t show you is that they have also had an enormous amount of luck with a sky-high .337 BABIP and 23.8% HR/RB, numbers so ridiculously high that I wouldn’t be surprised if they got no-hit soon to bring them crashing back to Earth. Chicago was arguably the most notable seller at the trade deadline and after trading away Rizzo, Bryant and Baez, I just can’t picture this group of misfits to keep producing the way they are. Hats off to them for hitting the cover off the ball lately, but the wind is blowing in, they’re facing a great opposing starter, and something is telling me that Chicago’s hot run will be coming to an end soon.

The pick

After four straight, why not keep riding with totals? Wrigley Field unders with the wind blowing in is one of the most recognizable trends in MLB betting. Couple that with a fantastic starting pitcher, an offense that is made up of spare parts, and a visiting offense on the wrong side of terrible splits, and I think we have the makings of a low scoring game. I might take the under in every way possible here, but for the article I’ll stick to the first five and full game. u8 -110 & F5 u4 +100 BetMGM